friday 4/24

[Stifler's Mom]

reg plays 64-69 (-18.15 units)
fave rl's 21-38 (-3.29 units)
overall 85-107 (-21.44 units)
faves who won by 1 run: 9 of 59 (15.25%)

Seems all week i'm either in the neighborhood of +1.xx or -1.xx units every day. Alot of treading water, which I'll certainly take over losing, lol.

On to tonight....

Tribe -149

There's a reason Cleveland and crappy CarBLOWna are this big of a fave...

....because the Twins suck. Seriously. They are an awful team so far this year....and now with the exception of Nathan, they don't have the quality pitching they had to keep them in games that they previously had either. I thought I was getting alot of "value" taking this team so far early in the season, but all i was really doing was missing the boat. The oddsmakers knew they sucked, and that's why it appeared they were getting such good value.

This team is a big time fade or no play from here on out until proven otherwise.

Now of course, they'll start playing like champions

Orioles -137

Another game where it appears Balt is favored by a bit much on the surface, but there's probably good reason.

One big obvious one is that Padilla is a joke. He has an era in the high teens vs Baltimore. And that's more than a few starts worth too, not just 1 or 2 bad innings or something. No ****. He's garbage. I'll take my chances that the Japanese guy for Baltimore can produce better than oil can Vicente.

Reds -106

Here I go, backing a guy who I think blows in Volquez. Only because the Braves offense blows worse, however, and because the Braves were the second worst road team in MLB last year (next to SEA).

After a decent start in Philly, things seem to be reverting to the mean on the road with this group who, with the exception of 1 game @ PIT, doesn't seem to be able to hit a beach ball off of a tee. I mean the Nats had some of the worst pitching in MLB so far....till they met with the toothpicks the Braves have been taking up there to the plate.

Phillies +130

Speaking of which, Florida is so over valued right now because of their 11-1 start, it's not even funny. They NEARLY lost all 3 at WASH though, if it wasn't for some late comebacks against Washington's **** closer whose name escapes me at this moment, and then they were sent from PIT with their tails between their legs after taking a 3 game sweep @ the hands of the Pirates.

The Phils have had some success against Johnson, and this line is imo a very bad one.

KC Royals -164

Detroit had to play a late game on the west coast last night, and then fly in to KC, where they arrived in the area of 6 or 7am KC time, and now have to play a game tonight....and face Greinke at that, who hasn't given up a run in 34 straight innings dating back to last season. I know that won't go on forever, but this is a downright awful spot for DET tonight, hence the reason a ho hum KC team is this big of a fave.

St Louis Cards -127

I'm not overly impressed with the Flubs this year, and I think that the fact that the FLubs are supposed to be the team to beat this year, combined with Dumpster having a career year last year, has them overvalued.

In reality, the Flubs aren't hitting particularly well right now, and I think Dumpster will have an impossible time trying to duplicate his success from last season.

Meanwhile, the Cards seem to be proving to be the team to beat in the NL Central this year....and that offense is on fire behind the best hitter in MLB, Albert Pujols.

Wainwrong wasn't all that great vs CHI last year, but the talent is definitely there with him, and that was a CHI team who was clearly rolling offensively better than this year's team is so far.

Tribe rl +130
Orioles rl +130
Reds rl +180
KC rl +125
St Louis rl +160

1/2 unit each

I haven't even started the 9pm games and later yet. Had a long day, lol.....

[Stifler's Mom]

adding:

Colorado -122
Seattle -117
Pittsburgh +115
Oakland +123

2 units each

Colorado rl +145
Seattle rl +135

1/2 unit each

Too burned out for write ups