Sunday 4/26

[Stifler's Mom]

reg plays 75-78 (-16.23 units)
fave rl's 24-44 (-4.36 units)
overall 99-122 (-20.59 units)
faves who won by 1 run: 10 of 68 (14.70%)

Phillies -107
Reds +102
St Louis +110
Jays -150
Detroit -143
Colorado +116
Pittsburgh +182
Oakland -103

Brewers/ASStros over 10 -115

2 units each

Phillies rl +140
Jays rl +100
Detroit rl +105

1/2 unit each

rl's seem to be off to a slow start, but, i think it's more because i'm not picking fave winners (too many faves i'm picking are losing outright), rather than that the winners are winning by exactly 1 run. I think if i was picking more outright fave winners, the rl's would be taking care of themselves. As you can see from the numbers above, i am exactly even at 34-34 when picking a favorite this year so far (add 10 wins from the # of faves played in fave rl because of the faves who won by exactly 1, and then of course subtract 10 losses for the same reason), so that's just not enough winners to be profitable.

I'm also wondering now if it wouldn't be profitable to blindly lay the -1.5 on the adjusted run line with dogs too, since it's always such a high payout??

I really think in the long run, -1.5 runlines are the way to go in baseball, at the very least with a small chunk of your wager, similar to making at least a small play on the ml on all dogs in NFL, if not the entire play on the ml, especially with lines of +7 or less.

[Stifler's Mom]

add:

Boston -119 & rl +160

2 units ml & 1/2 unit rl

[FlyersFan]

has anyone ever looked at the RL stats over the years to even see if they are profitable and if so by how much?

I do think playing a home team on the RL is tough unless you absolutely think the game is a blowout in your capping. You have 1 less AB and if they do come back in the 9th rarely do they win by 1 run. I think it would interesting to look at dogs on the reverse RL like at somewhere like 5dimes that offers them.