Sunday turds 5/3

[Stifler's Mom]

reg plays 108-116 (-33.11 units)
fave rl's 33-67 (-9.31 units)
overall 141-183 (-42.42 units)
faves who won by 1 run: 16 of 100 (16.00%)

I hate that I like all these faves, but unless I fade myself (which maybe I should), what am I gonna do??

Anyway:

Toronto Blue Jays -125

The Orioles suck. What else is there? Guthrie hasn't been any good, yet his name and the O's offensive potential keeps this line down. In reality, the O's have been stranding runners and compiling losses since their hot start, behind their 27th ranked bullpen, only better than Texas, NY Yankees, and LA Angels. Big accomplishment. Even if Guthrie does ok and the game is close, I figure the pen can blow it for em anyway.

I like my chances better than just -125.

Houston ASStros -108

I see a bunch of early plays on Atlanta, and no offense to anyone (you're probably all right anyway....look @ my record, lol), but I see absolutely no reason to touch Atlanta today, if they were +150.

First of all Wandy has been excellent forever now. Home, road, doesn't matter.

The same cannot be said for Jo Jo Reyes. There is a guy who got bombed almost all last season after what was probably a fortunate start while the league adjusted to him, and he seems to be carrying his success (or lack thereof) into this season so far. Yea, he had some success vs St Louis, but those bats were cooling anyway last week and with some of their big guys being lefties who don't exactly crush LHP, it's not really shocking.

Bullpens were taxed yesterday. Who has a better chance of going longer without getting hammered? Wandy or Jo Jo?

And allow me to dispel 2 things that look good on paper (and are the reasons this line isn't -130), but imo are meaningless myths.

#1. ATL is 6-2 this year vs LHP. Well good for them.

Lowe over Mike Hampton
Vazquez over Zach Puke
Jurrjens over Mary Kate Olsen
Kawakami over John Lennon
Jurrjens over Jamie Moyer
? over John Lennon (1-0 final where ATL got 0 of the former Beatle in 7 innings)

So is this brilliant hitting vs LHP, or just pitching matchups in Atlanta's favor? Probably the latter.

#2. Wandy has relatively poor career numbers vs ATL. And this matters why? He was 1-0 vs them last year with a 2.19 era in 12.1 innings. That sounds like Wandy pretty much got the best of the Bravos 2x last season. You have to basically ignore Wandy's career numbers, because he blew for quite a while before he came into his own last year.

One thing that worries me is Houston's lack of run production this year, but they have been far better vs LHP than RHP, so combined with the lackluster Reyes, I expect at least a little success for the Houston bats today.

For these reasons, I see value in Houston today as a very low fave.

Tampon Bay Rays -150

Guess the oddsmakers are telling us who they like here? If this were -120 either way, i probably wouldn't touch it, because I don't much trust TB and BOS has cooled off after it's 11-0 run (alot vs poor ass Yankees pitching)

Hey, Boston is a great team, but if you ask me, the oddsmakers are speaking loud and clearly here. I don't have to say Shields was 15-3 @ home last year, or that Brad Penny sucks, or that this series was totally home dominated last year (BOS had ONE win in TB last season), or that TB seem to own Boston lately....because they oddsmakers are doing it for you with this high ass line.

The world is jumping on Boston as a big dog, and they don't care.

Free money on Boston? Or is TB a very solid play? You decide.

Milwaukee Brewers -145

Petit pretty much blows normally, and Arizona has one of the weakest offenses in the majors so far. That's a trend that carries over from last year as well, so it's not real surprising. They're 89 runs in 24 games isn't too good, especially considering they play in what is known as a "hitters ballpark", and until this week when they squared off against the Brewers (in another hitters ballpark), they played all but 3 of their first 21 games there, now making 21 of their first 24 games in hitter friendly yards.

They've done ok behind solid veterans in this series, including a great start by Dan Haren yesterday, but Petit probably gets hammered today like every other time he pitches, and Arizona just doesn't have to offense to keep up most days.

I'll back George H.W. Bush (the one before Clinton, not after, lol), who has been surprisingly decent because I just plain old like the Brewers offense to outscore the Diamondbacks offense today and salvage a split of this series @ home, where they are normally pretty good.

Minnesota Twins -125

KC looks enticing as a dog here on the surface, but Meche is hurt (sore back), which he admits, and is indicated by his last 2 starts being poor, Baker is too good to suck forever, and the Twins are starting to play better. That's it.

Chicago Flubs -160

Nolsaco hasn't done much that makes me wanna back him this year, at any price. As a matter of fact, he has done nothing to make me desire to do so.

2 days ago I wouldn't have played this @ this price, or anything close to it, but the Flubs are getting rolling offensively, and I like their chances today behind big Z to outscore Nolsaco and the relatively poor Florida pen, headed up by their pathetic closer and his 8+ era.

2 units each

Jays rl +150
ASStros rl +140
Tampon Bay rl +140
Brewers rl +140
Twins rl +165
Flubs rl +130

1/2 unit each

[Stifler's Mom]

adding:

SF Giants -115 & rl +170

2 units ml & 1/2 unit rl

I was going to add LA Dodgers -1.5, but I think I'm going to pass because of the big line shift.

[Stifler's Mom]

Good thing i didn't fade myself, but I should have ignored the line move on SD/LA and just played that Dodgers RL in one of the biggest mismatches ever. I knew it was probably because Manny was sitting out and not because any sharp player in their right mind was throwing down on the anemic Padres offense behind a spot starter who is quite more well suited as a reliever. Oh well.

Adding:

Texas +117

2 units

Go Marvin Harrison