Wedneday 5/6 turds

[Stifler's Mom]

reg plays 127-125 (-15.11 units)
fave rl's 40-77 (-9.34 units)
overall 167-202 (-24.45 units)
faves who won by 1 run: 20 of 117 (17.09%)

Baltimore +109
Florida +130
Brewers +104
Flubs -141
White Sux -108
KC Royals -131
KC Royals/Seattle under 10 +100
Pirates +137
SF Giants +141
SF Giants/Colorado over 9.5 +100
LA Dodgers -210

2 units each

Flubs rl +110
White Sux rl +175
Royals rl +150
Dodgers rl -105

1/2 unit each

[FultonStreetBlues]

GoodLuck Stifer.

[Daws1089]

gl, I'd like to hear your take on Milwaukee and Parra if you get the chance.

[Stifler's Mom]

First, and most importantly, I don't like the situation the Reds are in tonight, returning home off a win yesterday and a pretty successful 3-2 road trip. I could easily see them getting lazy tonight after returning home and adjusting back to their "regular lives" last night after the game in Florida.

Arroyo 4-1 (4.91 era, 1.42 whip)
Parra 0-4 (5.33 era, 1.58 whip)

Those numbers aren't much different, and Parra was strong his last 2 starts, all be it against the relatively wimpy offenses of Houston and Arizona. I give some credit for the Houston game though, because they normally do ok vs LHP.

Arroyo also off a strong start against PIT, who was struggling mightily on offense at the time, so i take that one for what it's worth....and he has as good a chance of giving up 10 as he does giving up 1 on any given night. He's just not as great as he's given credit for. The potential to be dominant may be there, but the consistency is not.

Third, doesn't the line look a little fishy with the "crappy Parra" only getting nearly even odds on the road vs Arroyo, who is definitely someone the public thinks pretty highly of from what I read.

Lastly, the line dropped about 10 cents, give or take a few, even with about 65% on CIN.

Wouldn't go all out on this play, but I think there are alot of things in my favor, and a dog price to go along with them makes it a play.

[Daws1089]

thanks, I definitely overlooked the returning home factor as well as the fishy line. It does look fishy as hell now that I've looked at it about ten times. Once again you make a great case for your bet.

[Daws1089]

looks like arroyo is the one giving up 10 tonight

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

looks like arroyo is the one giving up 10 tonight

close...9....lol.....pegged that one, stif....lol