Friday 6/19

[Stifler's Mom]

Ytd update later sometime

Wanted to get these in early in case the lines move against me like I figure they might...

tribe -101
twins -150

2 units each

twins rl +140

1/2 unit

[gadfly36]

gl stif, with you on the tribe.

[Stifler's Mom]

Thanks gad. GL to you today as well. Hopefully they can hold on to the 5 run lead here late. You never know with that Cleveland pen

7pm games:

Natinals -110

Looking for these douches to keep the momentum rolling. Despite sweeping Philly, the books are telling you what they think of the Jays and Tallet by dogging them at the Natinals and taking a public beat down with Jays money in the process. That of course doesn't mean the Natinals won't blow it and lose like usual, but obviously the books think they have the better chance to win tonight.

Phillies -145

Good spot to bounce back for these ass wipes on the surface, just simply because the O's blow on the road @ 8-20. That's poor, and probably worth blindly fading at these relatively low odds. Add in that the Phillies avg 5.43 runs per game vs LHP while the O's manage just 3.58, and that the Phils pen ranks #9 while the O's pen ranks #21, and it really does seem like the right spot for Philly to get back on track.

White Sux +100

Fading Arroyo, no big surprise there. Reds just don't have the offense to support his 5+ rpg average right now. Hopefully Contreras keeps it rolling, and the White Sux can get him some support off my favorite pitcher. I was a little shocked to see the public slightly siding with the White Sux here. Usually old Bronson has at least 70% on his side, if not more.

NY Mets +105

Don't really like backing the Mutts right now, but Sonnanstine is an auto fade on the road every time, let alone as a fave.

Braves +138

Don't like backing the sporadic Braves, but I'm fading Dice-K as a fave till he shows even some sign that he's gonna get it right.

Florida +112

Taking a stab here against a struggling Yankees offense and a struggling Pettitte....although I have a feeling Pettitte gets it back on track soon. Hopefully not tonight. If the Yanks had been hitting, I would have passed here, but this is as much a fade of their offensive woes right now as anything. What put me over the top is that Florida is 16-7 vs LHP.

Brewers -101

Fading Galarraga, especially against a once again hot hitting Brewers team, even though that could be partly due to facing Cleveland. If it's a close game, Brewers pen #6, Detroit #23.

2 units each

Natinals rl +180
Phillies rl +130

1/2 unit each

Still working on the 8pm and later games, except the Twins which I already have in. Oswalt blows on the road dating back to last season and even before (well, and pretty much at home too these days where he used to be great), while Slowey on the other hand has been awesome at home, as are the Twins.

[Stifler's Mom]

Kerry Wood is a turd, as is the rest of the Tribe pen. I knew that once Lee came out that the game was a long way from over with those pieces of **** looming out there.

Adding these:

LA Angels -107

Riding the hot team vs a team who is pretty much struggling to score. Even though they have been scoring enough to get by vs poor teams, I think the Dodgers may find the Angels offense a bit more productive than that of the A's, and I don't think they will be able to keep up. Billingsley has been been flirting with some danger in a few of the starts I've seen him pitch recently, and tonight may be the night he gets roped. They beat Lincecum yesterday, so why not?

Seattle -123

Garland has been awful lately, and Arizona averages just 3.47 rpg vs LHP. Not a great combo. They're also 3-11 when going from facing a righty to a lefty, so I guess you could say I'm fading Arizona here, hoping the M's can keep it going now that they're back at home after a pretty successful road trip where they won 2 of 3 series, even if they were over Baltimore and the ****ty Padres.

Add in the Seattle pen at #2 and the Arizona pen at #26, and you have a big pitching mismatch here on paper, from starter to closer.

SF Giants -112

Texas isn't hitting for ****. I can't imagine that will get better in pitcher friendly AT&T Park, or whatever they call it now, where the Giants are 21-12 (and were 21-9 before getting plowed over by a red hot Angels team), including 5-2 in games started by Unit. Feldman has been tough, but the line swing from SF +104 to SF -112 with the public slightly favoring Texas is what convinced me that I am hopefully barking up the right tree here.

Padres +130

A's are 12-22 on the road, and avg 3.52 rpg vs LHP. They are 2-6 in games where they face 2 straight LHP starters, and are 8-14 overall vs LHP. This results in being favored? Backing SD might be a big mistake, but this line looks foolish to me, given these factors, even if it is against SD and crappy LeBlanc.

2 units each

LA Angels rl +180
Seattle rl +160
SF Giants rl +200

1/2 unit each

Passed on STL/KC, which I have no read on, and PIT/COL, a game in which something seems fishy. Wouldn't be shocked to see the Pirates pull that one out, yet with the Rockies being super hot and Marquis great record at Coors (and overall this year for that matter), I couldn't really find any solid reasons to play Pittsburgh, other than a hunch.