Sun 6/28

[Stifler's Mom]

ytd 422-390 (+26.71 units)

Speds +140
Pirates +135
Florida +154
Braves -105
SF Giants +147
Houston +123
St Louis -125
Arizona -130

Braves/Red Sux over 8.5 -115

2 units each

Will probably have a play or two on the night games later

[Stifler's Mom]

Gonna hold my nose and add the stinky ass A's at 4.

Also adding the night games while I'm at it...

A's -108
Yanks -143
Padres +130
Padres/Texas over 11 -120

2 units each

That Hunter guy for Texas REALLY blows, from what I've seen of him in the past. Taking a chance SD can take some advantage. Chad Gaudin isn't exactly Nolan Ryan either, so thinking it's high scoring. Either that, or the ****bag Padres will make Hunter look like Tom Seaver.

Mets just too banged up, and Weiner seems to be coming around.

Colorado looks entirely too good to be true with the red hot Cook and their hot offense against the **** pile A's. So why are they dogged? Taking a blind stab at a team I win with about as often as the Natinals, whom obviously I should have backed today...but after them squandering like 3 bases loaded/nobody out scenarios last night, I passed. Go figure....

[rockchalkjayhawk]

With the Texas Offense I couldn't back Gaudin and SDG. But good call on Colorado! I went with Hunter. He may have looked horrible, but it's like going against the Royals. We make every pitcher look like Cy Young. Maybe SDG will do the same!

[FultonStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by rockchalkjayhawk

With the Texas Offense I couldn't back Gaudin and SDG. But good call on Colorado! I went with Hunter. He may have looked horrible, but it's like going against the Royals. We make every pitcher look like Cy Young. Maybe SDG will do the same!

Stifler didn't take Rockies. I guess the padres sure looked like the Royals.

[gsad]

get em back next time, I find totals more times than not is a fluke, a crappy pitcher gets hot the looks good over gets burned, a top pitcher has an off day an under that looked good goes over! I really like the way you logic out the winners in games in your write ups that some funny stuff

[Daws1089]

i just wanted to say thanks. I tailed saturday on colorado and sunday on cincinnati. So thanks for the winners

[gsad]

ya I second that thanks for all those winners day in day out

[Stifler's Mom]

I know I don't get a ton of time these days to share my opinions, but I wanted to make a few comments about the stuff I read in here today.

First of all, Texas' awesome offense is a complete misconception. Look over their last 20 to 30 games and see how many runs they've scored per game. Not many. And one of the 3 or so games where they did explode in the last month plus was against Mexican League ace Walter Silva. They are capable, and I'm sure the run totals for them will pick up, but they have been far from great for over a month now...so handicapping them as if they are scoring 5 or 6 runs a game doesn't make a ton of sense until they show the results on the field, imo

Gsad....I agree about totals. It always seems like they are hit and miss. I often try to isolate the ones where I feel the things you said things are more likely to happen, either an ace might struggle and the total is low, or 2 average Joes have a good shot to do ok, yet the line is real high. I thought with SD having a season high hits the day before, and facing a pitcher who is far from great, they would have a good shot to score runs last night, which is why I took them on the ml AND took the over. In retrospect though, playing a total at over 11 with the way Texas is NOT hitting, and the way SD is up and down on offense was a bit stupid, because in reality the odds of it hitting 12 or more runs were probably very slim, but live and learn.

Another spot I look for in totals is one where the line seems to have not caught up with a certain pitcher or team. For example, Porcello for Detroit was pitching very well up until the last few starts, in which he's struggled. The line of 9 kind of reflects his struggles, but not completely if you ask me, since Anderson for Oakland pretty much blows too, and Detroit is one of the better teams in MLB vs LHP. Oakland at least has a chance to score vs RHP too. So if Porcello struggles Oakland should score some, and Detroit has even their average game of 4.9 runs per game vs LHP (which obviously includes games vs good LHP as well as ****ty LHP like they will face tonight), it's not hard to see each side hitting 4 or more tonight, in which case the worst I will do is push. That will probably be the only total I play tonight, and I only really see it going under if there are alot of runners stranded, cause I think there will be plenty of chances to score for both teams tonight.

Lastly I look for a total where the line seems way low or way high, and fade it, going the other way. Like if I see a total where there are 2 pitchers generally thought of to be ****ty, and it's only 8.5 or something, the books are probably thinking under. Likewise, 2 good starters and it's 9.5 or more? Probably a good play on the over....generally speaking anyway.

With all that being said, I have really not done well with totals lately.

As far as the other day when you asked if i had any number of games I aimed for per day....no, it's just whatever I come up with. I found when I used to limit myself in baseball, 75% of the time I was limiting winners. I also used to do stupid things like refuse to play larger faves, even if they looked to me like they should win clear cut, or refusing to take certain plays just because the public was on them.

I do realize, though, that my style of handicapping isn't for everyone, and probably most people do better when they just play a few games. There is also a bigger risk of having a huge bad day when playing so many plays per day. That is something I had to learn to accept, but for those who might tail, it's something to think about. I do my best to pick what I think are winners, but I'm not gonna win every day, that's for sure.

I have learned that this type of wagering really only works for me in MLB and NFL. In all other sports, I need to learn more discipline, and will be working on that this coming year. I played way too many games in NCAAF, NBA, NHL and ESPECIALLY NCAAB last year, and i had a losing season in each of those sports.

As far as the winners....I'm glad someone gets something out of my posts. I do write ups when I can, and I know my reasoning isn't always exactly the same as most people's, but it works for me, and I think if nothing else, it gives others a different way to look at things.

Hopefully I can keep picking winners, but it's just one of those things you can only do so much to control. Sometimes things just don't go as expected, especially in sports where there are so many chances for things to happen that are beyond anyone's control as far as trying to predict what should happen, and that is the number one thing where I feel people fall into a pitfall as handicappers. They think every single winner was a good pick, and everyone loser was a bad one. That thinking makes no sense. Those who learn to accept lucky winners as just that, lucky, and also can determine when they were probably on the right side, but lost due to stuff they probably couldn't have predicted, can normally keep a more level head when picking their next set of plays, instead of getting too high on themselves, or too down on themselves.

If all that makes any sense, lol

[gsad]

thanks for taking the time to answer everything, and thats a great angle on totals thanks