SaTURDay FADES are HERE!!!!

[Stifler's Mom]

Did manage to go 10-5 yesterday and profit +10.98 units. Unfortunately, I cannot help but consider that the exception, not the rule, right now after dropping about 75 units (give or take a unit or two) in the last few weeks, so even though i'm trying to find the right adjustments and get some winners going again, these are still fades and turds as far as I'm concerned. It takes me more than one good day to start feeling good and confident about my picks again.

But unlike so many who will disappear when losing, even though probably 75% or more of them continue to bet and lose, then come back and post again when they start to hit a better streak and try to make themselves look like big winners, when really they are only showing a small part of the story, i will continue to post and count every single play that i make in my record, weather i'm winning or losing, and give a true account of where I am for the season, not just the times when I got hot and posted my plays.

ytd 546-541 (-34.55 units)

Tampon Bay Rays +103

I have looked to go against David Price and his wild self most of the year, with a decent amount of success. I have also looked to go against the Rays on the road in general, but more specifically against LHP on the road. So this should be a prime opportunity to fade them, right?

Not IMO.

Toronto is one of the 5 worst teams in baseball, and they keep proving it night in and night out. I'd give you Washington and San Diego as obviously worse, and probably KC, but after that, I think could make an argument for any team in MLB betting better than TOR.

People though, are just remembering that hot start, and continuing to bet the Jays at lines that are far far too low.

I mean not only is TB the more talented team, but they are riding the confidence that they are winning again after a lackluster start to the year, and making another playoff run in the process. Even if it doesn't seem all that likely with the Yanks and Boston ahead of them, the Rays are certainly still in contention and will without a doubt be playing like it, while the Jays have little to play for except their jobs, which it seems are either locked up for some of them, and the rest either don't care, or maybe don't have the talent.

This is one of those games where I think you need to put all else aside, and see that you are getting the better team who has something to fight for at + odds.

Oh yea, Tallet has sucked ass letely as well, which is just extra icing on the cake on a line which I do not understand in the first place.

Flubs -133

The Reds are another one of those teams who i see as one of the worst in mlb. They might be #4 and the Jays #5 after the 3 I mentioned above, lol. I don't think they have any heart on the club, and only average talent. I also think manager Dusty Baker is a tool who wouldn't know how to motivate a club if his life depended on it, which is why you always see his teams underachieve, despite having some talented and capable players, imo.

Like I said in the last write up, this is the time of the season where the better teams start to beat up on the bottom feeders, of which the Reds are, and are proving so with their play on the field.

Cueto has been awful lately too.

This is a game the Flubs need to, and should win against a struggling pitcher and a team with basically a punchless offense if they have any hopes of making a run at the post season.

Seattle/Boston 2 team parlay +129

I almost looked to play Cleveland today, looking for value on a team who has underperformed all year and might be at least heating up a little, going up against one who has overachieved. That was until I took a look at the game.

Cleveland is 10-28 off a win, 7-23 in game 2 of a series, 2-7 off back to back wins, have not won 3 straight road games all year, and 19-30 on the road. All of that sucks, but on top of it, they have one of the league's worst bullpens (although it seems they have shown some improvement) and despite fighting for a spot in the rotation now and in the future, Jeremy Sowers has continually sucked almost every time he's pitched. That doesn't sound like a team i'd like to bet on.

So on the other side, there's Seattle, who probably is overachieving, but that is because they fight hard every day and believe in themselves that they can win. These 2 things are showing in the fact that they are 27-17 off any loss and even more specifically 7-2 after losing game 1 of a series. Seattle also has one of the league's best bullpens, and has at least a decently strong home field advantage at 25-19.

After seeing all of that, I couldn't help but be convinced that Seattle has a really nice shot of bouncing back today.

I would NOT, however, play them at -185 or whatever the line has climbed to by now. Nor would i just drop 2 units down on the -1.5 rl just because they are getting "plus odds" on it. Their offense, or often times lack there of, combined with their quality pitching staff, makes it not the most sensible thing to do, as they could easily take a tough luck 2-1 type loss or a grind it out 2-1 type win at any time, even though what I see lends me to believe they should push at least a couple runs across the plate today.

So, I decided to combine them with Boston, another huge public fave for the day, lol

In all seriousness though, without getting into a ton of detail, Boston owns Baltimore, Lester owns Baltimore, Boston is one of the league's best home teams, Baltimore is the AL's WORST road team. These is also no comparison between the two bullpens, with Boston having the large advantage.

This is a no brainer pick IF Boston isn't struggling on offense, which they are, and is my main concern. So step in Jeremy Guthrie. IMO this guy sucks, and hopefully he, along with a return to Fenway will be what the Boston offense needs to get moving.

Houston ASStros -130

Ahhhh.....the mighty Mets, lol. I forgot about them in my top 5 worst MLB teams rambling above. They might just knock one of those teams out. God do they suck. They even lost 2 of 3 to the NATINALS. They can't hit consistently and score that way, and they hit no home runs. Without runs, you cannot win. It's pretty simple.

Houston on the other hand, while clearly being the better team here, is also getting hot. Clearly they are a talented team, who is now getting it together and starting to believe they can win.

I will take my chances with them every day at -130 against the hapless Mutts.

KC Royalettes -106

I can hear it already....

ICK!! The ****TY ROYALS?? Against the hot Rangers who have won 5 straight? Are you a moron??

Maybe, lol.

But the fact remains that KC first off KC has the starting pitching advantage today. The Royalettes are 7-4 in Hochevar's starts overall, and 4-1 in his home starts. There is no other SP on the Royals team with which they have a winning record. Not Meche, not Greinke, not Bannister. Could be coincidence, but they seem to win pretty often when Hochevar pitches.

On the other side, Holland hasn't even done anything close to proving that he belongs in an MLB rotation. In addition, it appears some members of the Rangers are suffering from the swine flu (ouch), and others from "flu or flu like symptoms", so who knows what guys will actually take the field today, or be productive if they do.

This looks to me like as good of a spot as one is going to find to bet on KC to break that 10 game losing streak.

2 units each

This is getting lengthy, so I am gonna stop and post it, even though I have more games to go over and will probably have some more plays. I'll just post them as I get to em....

[Stifler's Mom]

Twins -101

At first glance, this looks like a great line to take the red hot Angels to keep it rolling against a road weary Twins team, and maybe it is just that.

As we all know though, when a line looks really good, there is always at the very least going to be another way to look at things, weather it turns out to be right or wrong in the end.

I see this as a letdown spot for the Angels, and a "better get this **** turned around" spot for the Twins, unlike yesterday which was a horrible spot for the Twins, having just suffered a blown save and extra innings loss the night before, and then having to face a great SP in John Lackey the next night. Real tough spot to get it going there, and LAA won pretty convincingly.

Today though, is the day I feel the Twins might bounce back, against a far less effective Matt Palmer, and behind nick Blackbum, who has been competitive in pretty much every start.

Blowing saves is obviously the exception to the rule for Joe Nathan, and i believe that given the chance today, and he just might be with some of these match up factors pointing to the Twins having a good shot to win this one, that he will redeem himself.

White Sux +128

Gavin Floyd seems to own the Tigers, for some odd reason, and let's not forget that prior to sweeping the double header yesterday, the Tigers were struggling. In fact, you could probably say that they struggled yesterday too, barely getting anything done against Butthole Colon in game 2, and not much more against Contreras in game 1, despite having caught the White Sux at what would probably be one of the worst motivational spots you could find, having just gotten done celebrating a perfect game by a teammate, then having to travel and face a double header the next day.

This all tells me that Floyd should have every chance of shutting down the Tigers offense today, and I believe the White Sux will be the ones coming with the motivation today, as to not fall back any more in the division race, making them, if nothing else, an excellent value play as a dog of this size.

White Sux/Tigers under 8.5 -110

Take the above about Floyd being good vs DET and the DET offense not really lighting the world up right now, and throw in Edwin Jackson who's been pretty darn good himself.

2 units each

That's is for the day games. More night games later....

[ncsucharlie]

But unlike so many who will disappear when losing, even though probably 75% or more of them continue to bet and lose, then come back and post again when they start to hit a better streak and try to make themselves look like big winners, when really they are only showing a small part of the story, i will continue to post and count every single play that i make in my record, weather i'm winning or losing, and give a true account of where I am for the season, not just the times when I got hot and posted my plays.

Although you say there are many, I can't help but notice the timing of your post and the fact that I've started posting again within the last week after taking nearly a month off. Just to be clear, during that month I did play a few days here and there in which I did not post, but I've been busy with other obligations this past month which didn't lend itself well to posting these few sporadic plays and having to keep an accurate record here on those plays. For the record, and you'll just have to take my word, I broke nearly even on the few plays I made, with no real hot or cold streaks in between to speak of. I don't think it's fair to assume and quantify a percentage of people who haven't posted recently as trying to hide their losses. Like I said, you may not be trying to call out a single person and are just speaking in general, but I did get the feeling that the timing of your post was an indictment of me.

Edit: For the record, I fully respect your opinions and your picks. You've always posted great reasoning behind your picks. I'm simply stating that it's unfair to speculate about why people take a sabbatical from posting, and I felt the need to respond to this as I've recently just started posting again.

[Hackman]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

But unlike so many who will disappear when losing, even though probably 75% or more of them continue to bet and lose, then come back and post again when they start to hit a better streak and try to make themselves look like big winners, when really they are only showing a small part of the story, i will continue to post and count every single play that i make in my record, weather i'm winning or losing, and give a true account of where I am for the season, not just the times when I got hot and posted my plays.....

I take exception to that quote as well. I started the season cold and lost out all cash in my account. With a pregnant wife,owning a business, and GREAT OBAMA economy turnaround, I have had more important things to spend my hard earned $$ on gambling. Got a nice $100 bill for my 40th birthday this month, deposited it in sportsbook, started playing games again AND POSTING..

Sorry I have a life and can't live in your daily posting world. I have always dropped in and out of posting, but lurk alot (usually wishing I had the disposable income to play).

Assuming others just post on HOT streaks is understandable, but so is assuming people have lives and don't live in the forum world... With a business to run, kids, pregnant wife, and bill paying, I bet when I get some dough in the aco****, and post at the same times......
Sorry for taking the time to drop back by and share in what should be the best forum on the internet..(and is)... good to see the moderator is so postive to people adding to the forum.

GL WITH YOUR PLAYS TODAY , AND I GUESS EVERYDAY, since you have all the time in the world to post.....

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL, those comments have nothing to do with either one of you.

Cool your jets guys. Sorry that I happened to say it as the two of you just happened to have come back to posting lately.

I was referring to people who show up as new members, post a few days or weeks and win, then once they lose a little, they all of a sudden disappear for a month, or two.....only to come back later, or under a completely different name, and start posting again with their 20-4 record, or what the **** ever, like they never lost a play and just took time off because they felt like it. It's ******* misleading, and I dislike it.

Maybe it just pisses me off just a hair that dickheads like that get their cock sucked over a 3-0 start when follow me, fade me, choose to consider information from me, or just ignore me, i've been doing this **** with basically no recognition forever. The only thing i catch is ******* grief when I lose.

But you know what, everything I say at this place apparently misunderstood. I'm not gonna list these guys out, but both of you have been around long enough to have been able to recognize one, i'd think. I honestly cannot believe either one of you, whom i have always considered to be honest posters just trying to do what you can to contribute, would even half way be offended by what I said, or even think someone would say those things about you.

You know what else, nevermind. I don't need to explain myself to anyone. It's all just a matter of heading down the same old road with posting at this place. If you say something people don't like, or post some bad plays, you suck. But you can go 100-1, and unless you TYPE IN ALL CAPS or put all kinds of ******* weird ass characters in your thread title, no one ******* cares.

I'll just shut up.....maybe not even post anything anymore, since apparently i'm a loser for having time to post, and somehow it's a bad thing that I choose to share what I love to do with others, and put alot of god gamn time into as well, for ******* free. I've had the ****s of this for a long time now, it started to get better as baseball came around and pretty much all of the arrogant ******* football guys left, but now once again, I can't say anything other than posting a pick without being misunderstood. I guess all the guys that post football only are gonna think i'm talking specifically about them now too and be pissed off. So what.

Apparently I'm a loser for getting home early in the afternoon before the rest of my family and having some time to sit in front of a computer and handicap sports.

And as far as you knowing what a moderator should or shouldn't do, why don't any of you try it? It's not as ******* easy as all of you casual lurkers/posters think, plus it pays NOTHING. ZERO. The only thing I get paid is GRIEF for doing it. Sounds like a real great thing to do, doesn't it?

**** this

[gsad]

[QUOTE=Hackman;205551]I take exception to that quote as well. I started the season cold and lost out all cash in my account. With a pregnant wife,owning a business, and GREAT OBAMA economy turnaround, I have had more important things to spend my hard earned $$ on gambling. Got a nice $100 bill for my 40th birthday this month, deposited it in sportsbook, started playing games again AND POSTING..

Sorry I have a life and can't live in your daily posting world. I have always dropped in and out of posting, but lurk alot (usually wishing I had the disposable income to play).

Assuming others just post on HOT streaks is understandable, but so is assuming people have lives and don't live in the forum world... With a business to run, kids, pregnant wife, and bill paying, I bet when I get some dough in the aco****, and post at the same times......
Sorry for taking the time to drop back by and share in what should be the best forum on the internet..(and is)... good to see the moderator is so postive to people adding to the forum.

GL WITH YOUR PLAYS TODAY , AND I GUESS EVERYDAY, since you have all the time in the world to post.....[/QUO

take it easy man guy had a couple hard weeks and is letting off some steam!

[Hackman]

Thanks for the clarification......I know what you mean by the ones that drop in are the worlds greatest, then drop out.......

Even when I lurk, I run into your thread to see what plays would be good to look at, whether I have cash in account or not...I respect your picks and plays as well.

I guess the timing of me getting back in, and then hitting an ungodly hot streak $100 to $750 in a week or so, I took offensive. Cause sure as **** I will hit the cold streak and be broke by next week.

Sorry for the bash back, but I do have a Pregnant wife keeping me a lil on edge...

GL TODAY...

[Vic Mackey]

stifler's mom = the only reason I have come into the baseball forum

used to also be a guy named xerri, but he doesn't post anymore.

[Stifler's Mom]

I guess I will also add this, since I'm not sure how you meant it Hackman, that I too have a "normal" every day life, and am not just a posting machine who sits behind a computer all day long.

I have one child who is 10 from a former relationship, whom I, as her father, have full custody of (and receive NO SUPPORT from her mother, nor do i want any)....and I too have a baby on the way as well, due in early December.

And to be blunt about it, i am paying 2 mortgages and a ton of bills right now while my old house from the former relationship is listed on this great real estate market right now and not selling, along with a ton of other debts accumulated from that relationship, which i allowed her to walk scot free financially from because I just wanted full time custody of my daughter, which I got.

Then obviously there are the bills from my new house, etc.

I'm not loaded either, but I guess luckily for me my income did increase pretty nicely at just the right time to cover all these bills temporarily, and my new girl has a good job as well, so I'm able to pay all these bills, and I had enough stashed away in my sportsbook accounts when all of this went down that I could continue to play....even though it's getting a little slim right now with the current losing streak combined with the ****ty basketball season I had. Cause I certainly don't have enough disposable cash to make any sportsbook deposits right this minute either.

Sports and gambling on them is quite honestly a way for me to sometimes forget about my other troubles, and pass the time when I don't have anything real exciting or urgent to do, like right now with my girl at work and my daughter having a friend from school over, and me having basically nothing to do other than stare at the wall, look at internet porn, or watch re-runs of the Golden Girls.

Just in case anyone was wondering.

[Stifler's Mom]

Originally Posted by Hackman

Thanks for the clarification......I know what you mean by the ones that drop in are the worlds greatest, then drop out.......

Even when I lurk, I run into your thread to see what plays would be good to look at, whether I have cash in account or not...I respect your picks and plays as well.

I guess the timing of me getting back in, and then hitting an ungodly hot streak $100 to $750 in a week or so, I took offensive. Cause sure as **** I will hit the cold streak and be broke by next week.

Sorry for the bash back, but I do have a Pregnant wife keeping me a lil on edge...

GL TODAY...

Hey, like I said, I definitely meant none of what I said towards you. You've been posting since back at UC, and hell, you're one of the most under the radar guys....never doing stupid **** to try and draw attention to yourself when you're winning and what not.

I was completely shocked that you took offense to what I said, even though I can see how the timing might have matched up, because I don't think there is a poster here that would say anything bad about you or how you conduct yourself when you're here.

I'm glad you're doing well lately, and I hope you keep on winning

[ncsucharlie]

yeah Stif, I didn't mean to rile you up either. Like I said it looks like it was just unfortunate timing, with me just starting to post again this week. I'm sorry there was a mix up in the communication. Keep posting your plays dude, I think a lot of people actually read your posts since you take the time to also post your reasoning behind your picks as well.

Good luck to you today, sir.

[gsad]

I got a lot more respect for you now, family is everything Stif and I never make a play without looking at what you did, saying that I hope you post early tomorrow too since I have a 1pm flight to DC and I hope you never stop posting cause I think a lot of people would be dissapointed, you have a lot of relevant **** to say IMHO.

[gsad]

A's +260

[Stifler's Mom]

Yea, i know....I was gonna take the A's today too just because of the huge price, but got tired of losing with crappy teams like them. It seems like as soon a I lay off is always when they pull one out as a gigantic underdog. But seriously, I couldn't have even made an argument today that the A's had any type of advantage today or a real legitimate shot of winning, so I had to lay off. What are ya gonna do? At least I wasn't on the Yanks at -330. Ouch, lol

So anyway, I'm calmed down now, lol. I didn't post any of that stuff for sympathy, or whatever, but if anyone had the image of me of some posting machine that just sat at the computer all day and did nothing but sports, that's incorrect and i wanted to dispel that. I'm just a regular guy like everyone else here who loves sports, gambling on sports and the rush you can get from it, and has some free time on his hands in the afternoons and sometimes on the weekends that I choose to spend handicapping.

So I did make 5 more plays for tonight, but I have no time for any type of meaningful write ups. I'm sure I'll be posting tomorrow morning sometime since my girl works again and my daughter's friend is staying over (again), lol...

Brewers/Braves under 8 -115
Padres/Natinals under 9 -110
Giants +162
Arizona -134
Florida +159

2 units each

[Stifler's Mom]

Looks like Seattle is going down. Maybe I should have gone with my instinct instead of the stats and facts, lol

Adding one more:

Red Sux rl -120

2 units