Monday

[Stifler's Mom]

558-554 (-36.80 units)

Tampon Bay +100

The Yankees are overpriced here today, and understandably so. Burnett has pitched hot lately, and the Yankees have won 9 of 10 since the all star break, making them look like the team to beat right now.

But look at the situation. In Burnett's last 5 starts where he's actually not looked like an overpaid turd, he faced NYM twice, who couldn't have hit a beach ball off a tee forever until this last weekend when it finally seems things may have started to come together for them a little, once vs the Jays who are far from an offensive force the last few months, and then vs Florida and Minnesota, whose offenses i really have nothing negative to say about, so good for AJ there. Hey, he's a good pitcher, I'm just thinking maybe his last 5 starts numbers are a bit skewed due to facing poor/struggling offenses, and if history has proven anything, it's that while he has the stuff to be an ace on just about any staff, he is extremely inconsistent.

But the Yanks still won 9 of 10. Yea, all 10 games at home, and 3 vs DET who was struggling, 3 vs the ****ty O's who after the Natinals are the world's worst road team, and 3 of 4 vs OAK, who is no shining star themselves at 41-56 overall and 19-31 on the road. A win is a win, abd 9 of 10 is always good, but I'm just saying it's not like the Yankees did this against top tier type team like Boston, who is undefeated vs NY Yanks this season so far, or the LA Angels, who pounded their asses out in LA heading into the break, two things that prove that when they are facing a good team, they certainly are not the invincible force they are looking like right now.

Or against Tampon Bay, for that matter. Who is 30-15 at home, including 25-5 in their last 30 home games. Shields always has better results at home too (team is 7-4 this year) going back to the beginning of last year.

This would have been a regular 2 unit play for me any day of the week, given what I said above, but the final thing that put me over the top to a 4 unit play is that the Tampons need this game, and a big home stand overall for that matter, to stay in contention. All the momentum rides with them tonight, imo, coming back home where they are outstanding, off a loss, badly needing a win, and going against a team who is cruising, all be it against some lighter competition, and may come in a little overconfident and/or sluggish tonight.

4 units

More plays later, but I feel like the line in this one is going to move against me. I couldn't believe TB was dogged when I first saw the line, nor could I believe that about 70% are on NYY so far as of the time I'm writing this. I would have thought a team who made the world series last year, and who is outstanding at home, would get more love than 30% as a home dog with arguably their best pitcher on the mound....

[Stifler's Mom]

NY Mets +145

I think this is a game where you can just throw the stats and record out the window for the Mets. Possibly losing 2 of 3 to the Natinals was a wake up call for them, as since then they came one walk off loss away from sweeping the formerly red hot Astros in Houston, and scoring 10 and then 8 in their last 2 games vs them. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt here that they have finally possibly maybe found a line up that works and gotten something going on offense.

But that's not the only reason I'm playing this game. I just don't think this is the world's best spot for Colorado either, traveling out across the country off a successful 4-2 home stand and being 7-3 overall since the break. Add in that they are awful in road starts by Jimenez at either 2-8 or 3-8, and I just don't see how I can't go against them tonight at this price.

On top of all that, Perez is fighting for his job (and possibly his career) as well, and has at least shown noticeable improvement with his control since being recalled from where ever they sent him to work it out, so while I can't say I expect a shutout from him, I don't expect him to fall flat on his face tonight either, and I think at the very least he'll do plenty well to give the Mets a shot to win the game, either against Jimenez or Colorado's 25th ranked bullpen.

Tomorrow with Marquis vs Pelfrey looks like possibly the better spot to back Colorado, although I'm a little concerned the price will be ridiculous in the -180 to -200 range for Colorado, and I will be unable to do so.

2 units

Will keep on adding em as I play em, I guess....

[Stifler's Mom]

Phillies -114

At first glance, I almost passed on this game all together with the D'bags being pretty hot lately, and not really knowing what to expect from either Moyer or Garland, who both are great sometimes, and sometimes not so much so.

I mean everyone knows the Phillies are a good team and a good team on the road, but I found that there's more to today's game, and that even if some people are landing there by accident using the same old "Phillies are the better team and they're only -114?" capping style, that Joe Public might be squarely on the right side here.

Here's what persuaded me to take Philly instead of passing by, or jumping on Arizona because it seemed like fading the public at such a low line would be the things to do:

First of all, Arizona is 5-16 when facing a lefty after a righty, and is only averaging 3.74 runs per game in games started against them by lefties (as opposed to 4.79 in games started by righties). It seems Arizona doesn't exactly crush LHP or adjust to a change in pitcher orientation very well.

Additionally, the D'bags are just 14-28 off a win this year. Seems they have a hard time keeping it going....or more likely, maybe they're just not a very good team who is unable to put any real winning streaks together when they're not facing poopie teams like the Pirates.

I also found it interesting to note that Arizona is just 15-31 as a dog, while being 27-24 as a fave. Seems the books have a decent handle on them.

OK, so I think that establishes that this is a pretty good spot to bet AGAINST Arizona, but to make things even better, I found some pretty good reasons to bet ON Philly, other than the obvious that they're the better team, Philly is hot, Philly is good on the road, etc...

Philly is 42-21 in any game after facing a righty starter this year, including 25-15 when facing 2 or more consecutive righties.

Add to it that Philly is 18-3 in any game of the first series of a road trip this year, which shows me Philly is prepared to compete and win when they head out on the road, something that would normally be a reason to go against a smallish road fave in a spot like tonight, and would have been the one thing to keep me off Philly tonight.

Not sure if this really means anything, but Philly is 4-1 vs a team who is off a shutout. What I do think means something though, is that Arizona is off 2 straight shutouts, since any team off pitching 2 straight shutouts is just 3-8 this year.

If Moyer is a concern, the Phillies are a pretty good 7-3 in his road starts this year and 10-4 when Moyer is a favorite.

Oh yea, even if the game turns out to be a close one, Arizona has one of the league's worst bullpens, coming in at a cool #27 with only the Royalettes, Tribe and Natinals behind them, and going up against one of the most feared offenses in the league, so even if it comes down to the late innings, I like my chances with Philly.

With all that being said, it's not real hard to see why the line is only what it is. I mean Arizona has played reasonably well lately, the Phils are in a spot that often isn't real kind to the opposing ball club traveling across country after a very successful home stand, and in reality, how large of a fave can you make the Phils when Moyer is pitching?

But all of the stuff I mentioned here is stuff that I believe most people don't know about, or consider when making their plays, and probably wasn't too strongly considered when the line was made, but shows clear advantages for Philly in just about every aspect of this game that I can find.

Doesn't make it a winner tonight or any other given night, but at -114, it sure as hell would be profitable in the long run, given all these season long numbers backing it, so I'll take my chances with Joe Pub on this one.

2 units

[Daws1089]

Good stuff stif. Once again you make quite a convincing case for each of your plays. I was looking at the TOR/SEA game and I know you are down on the light hitting bluejays, but doesn't it seem like too reasonable of a price for hernandez or am I overthinking this? Seattle has never faced romero so they might struggle. They have lost 3 straight and only put up 6 runs in the entire weekend series. Maybe I'm making more of a case of why not to play seattle, but I was wondering if you looked at this game and had any info on why I should play toronto.

[Stifler's Mom]

I have a hard time going against Felix cause he's that good, but would not in any way pay the price they are asking for Seattle tonight. To be honest, that's one of the games on the card I avoided even capping, along with the ****fest in Baltimore and the lovely Nats/Brewers affair.

The Jays could come around and get some wins....they've showed signs the last few days, and the talent is there, but they have definitely underachieved for quite a while now, which is why i avoid them.

Paying like -180 for a team like Seattle who is slumping and doesn't have much offense to begin with seems like financial suicide to me though, so you're probably thinking along the right lines with the Jays. I just have a mental block with them right now because every time i play them they lose, lol

I did add more though, but the write ups will be short since i'm short on time:

A's +2.5 -120

Cahill decent lately, and the A's are still competitive. The Boston offense has blown for a while now except for one breakout game against the horrible Jeremy Guthrie. If they go off on Cahill or the A's pen tonight, then so be it, but getting +2.5 runs at almost even money looks good to me.

Padres +158

Yes they suck, but so do the Speds. The Speds have won exactly ONE game out of 14 that Bailey has pitched for them. And this makes you -168? Yikes. Sometimes there's value to be had by taking poor teams, and it looks to me like this is one of those spots.

St Louis -155

I think the STL can't hit lefties well thing goes out the window now with the addition of Holliday. They got rid of Duncan, who couldn't hit me if i threw left handed, and don't need to play Ankiel against a lefty either, since he couldn't hit me either.

Looks like the books think STL is the play tonight, and I agree. Dodgers haven't really slumped yet this season, but they will, and they might be in the midst of it now, having dropped 2 of 3 at home to FLA, and now having to face a hungry STL team who just dropped out of first and needs this one worse than LAD does.

Oh, and for the record, I'm a righty, lol

Houston +145

Now that the Speds left town and they're not playing the Natinals, the Flubs might come back to earth again. Maybe not, who knows....maybe now they'll finally live up to the hype.

I'll take +145 for Wandy and an ASStros team that can compete with anyone against what is probably once again an overrated Flubs team because they beat up on the lowly Speds all weekend tonight and see how it turns out.

White Sux -102

Glen Perkins blows, and the White Sux are good vs lefties. As a matter of fact they're 19-10 vs LHP, 2nd best in the league. That's about it. I don't like going against the Twins at home, but hey, they don't go 81-0 there, and like I said, Glen Perkins blows, lol

Tigers +145

Texas is winning, but they still not doing all that much hitting. Wondering if the flu is still bugging them, and how that will work in the Arlington heat tonight if it is?

Other than that, I just think this price has grown far too high against division leading Detroit. Galarraga, whom I was fading at one point, has done well lately.

I have been fading Texas because of this flu thing and because they're not really producing because of it (i mean fat ass Sidney Ponson shut em down for how long yesterday?), but if they win tonight and look decent in doing so, i'll have to let the flu thing go and assume it's not an issue.

Tribe +145

Speaking of blowing, add Joe Saunders to the mix. Cleveland's offense is going off right now, and I'll try to keep riding that momentum against what has been a very crappy pitcher, and hope it's finally time for the Angels offense to slow down, which I thought would happen like a week ago.

Pirates +1.5 +100

This might be ridiculous reasoning, but the Pirates were just shut out 2 straight times. I gotta believe they have a few runs in them tonight against Lincecum or someone. I mean how often does a team get shut out 3 straight games?

Plus SF doesn't have all that great of an offense, at just under 4 runs per game, and Maholm is fully capable of pitching a decent game.

It's not hard seeing this game being close, although it could be close till the 8th and Pittsburgh could give up 7 runs like they did against Arizona last week...

2 units each

[Daws1089]

thanks for getting back to me. I'm not playing the jays, but I was leaning that way. I just don't have the heart to bet more than a few games a day anymore in baseball lol. It can go south so fast which is why i respect you for always playing as many as you feel are worth it. Let's get some winners tonight. Hopefully CLEV puts enough runs up tonight so that povano and the bullpen can't blow it.

[ncsucharlie]

GL today Stif. I'm on the Yanks tonight, but I think this game is the best (most entertaining to watch and know the outcome of) game on the card tonight. I think this is a very important series for both of these teams.

[Stifler's Mom]

Yea, playing so many games can be tough, but I have picked up 100 units in a matter of 3 or 4 weeks already last year, as well as just having dropped about 75 units in about 3 weeks just a little bit ago this year, and also taking a big slide last year (now that I think about it, just right after the all star break like this year), before building back up to a pretty decent record again by the end of the world series. Maybe I need to come up with a different plan for just after the all star break next year, lol

Anyway, I'm hoping things have stabilized a bit now since I've either come out ahead 2 of the last 4 days, and just slightly in the negative the two that i did lose.

I have always been told "you can't play so many games", etc etc....and I tried to cut back for a while, but I have found that in MLB and NFL, that when I eliminate games, I nearly always eliminate the WINNERS, as stupid as that may be, and sit there kicking myself in the ass for letting like 4 games go that i thought were marginal and they end up 3-1, and keeping 6 of them that go like 3-3.

The other sports are a different story though, ESPECIALLY CBB. I KNOW i need to cut back there, and will be doing so this coming year. Now cutting back for me might be 8 to 10 games on a Saturday instead of 20 though, lol.

But yea, i hear what you're saying about it possibly going south real fast. I just continuously felt like i was leaving winners on the table when i cut my 10 or 11 game per day cards down to 5 or 6, so just i stopped doing it and learned to deal with the downswings when they happen, and will admit that I am still trying to learn how to limit my losses when i'm in the middle of one. Problem is, i'll be rolling along, and then bam, one bad day, then 2, then 3, and before I realize it's a bad streak and not just a bad day, i've dropped pretty damn many units, lol, then till I try to regroup and figure out where i'm going wrong, it take a little bit to get going in the right direction again....

[Daws1089]

the ups and downs of gambling if you will.

[akatdrake]

GL Stif, love your thorough writeups in all sports. Keep pluggin' away!