Maxx's 8/23 Plays

[Maxx_Power]

Man, some great matchups out there today... makes things tough to read but should be a fun day. Here goes...

FLA +125 ML risk 2 units
Every time I watch the Braves they only put up 1-2 runs... I know their offense is actually better than that... but it's still mediocre at best. I'll take Nolasco and plus money against their offense and hope the Marlins can touch up Lowe just enough on offense.

MIL -114 ML to win 1 unit
MIL +140 RL risk 1 unit
The over might actually be the better play here but I have decided to avoid totals. Brewers have scored 18 runs the last two games. Stammen is not a strikeout pitcher (43 Ks in 94 innings) so there should be plenty of chances for them to keep making contact. +140 RL money on a road team that's hitting the ball seems like a worthy play.

LAA +112 ML risk 2 units
Lots of angles to play here... Romero's arm seems to be tiring over the last 1 1/2 months, Bell is a young guy with pretty good stuff of his own whose arm is likely much fresher, LAA been solid all year on road and really solid against lefties, and LAA are the team with something to play for... seems like a good spot to take them as a dog.

TB -135 ML to win 1 unit
TB +145 RL risk 1 unit
Agonized a bit over this one... good matchup of Price vs Feldman. Both teams fighting for their lives. Price has been there, Feldman hasn't. Price's home splits are really strong. Both teams are free swingers, but Price is much more of a strikeout pitcher (almost 1 K per inning) while Feldman has 75K in 137 IP. Add in the Rays are killer at home and I was sold.

Couldn't make up my mind on Lincecum vs Jimenez in another huge game with a great matchup... thought the over might be the best play just cause I think the under will get pounded. I'll see how these go before deciding on the late game... but Yanks vs Sox... Sabathia vs Beckett.... tons of runs the last 2 games... that should be a fun one.

[Stifler's Mom]

Normally when a team scores 10+ runs and loses, they are a strong play the next day. That would be SF today, which is why I pointed it out. Boston qualified yesterday.

I think you're spot on with your reasoning on TB too. They have been there in the big game before, and both theirs and Price's home splits are great. I have been reading alot of "Texas avoids the sweep" talk at different places as the reason some people are playing them today, and have seen pretty much no one backing TB anywhere until just reading your plays now, yet TB is a decent sized fave?

I agree with your assessment of the Florida/Atlanta game too. Lowe has been less than great in his 2 starts vs Florida this year, Nolasco has been the more consistent pitcher lately, and Florida has the better offense. That looks like a nice dog.

GL today

[Maxx_Power]

Thanks for that tip on the Giants... I had not heard that before but it makes sense. I still don't think I could take them just because I think the Rockies are that much better... and I'm honestly a little leary of Lincecum and how well his body can hold up. I have nothing to base that on other than my own bias. That said... I can't imagine many scenarios where I would put money up against him... and this certainly is not one.

I thought of the whole sweep angle with TEX which is why I agonized a bit. I just really don't think TEX is ready for prime time yet though... they've been a good story this year... and will probably be a team to look out for next next year.

The scary thing is I've talked myself into several plays today with pretty sound reasonable logic, unfortunately logic rarely rules in gambling.

[Maxx_Power]

Mama said there'd be days like this... Not sure I would do much different... just take my lumps and move on. For tonight...

BOS -122 ML to win 2 units