Heaven help me....

[Stifler's Mom]

but I played these:

Natinals +112
O's +121
TB -114
SF -105
Hou +119
Oak +100

2 units each

I know it's tough to go against Philly with Lee, but Look at Wandy's home record. How do you not take that as a dog?

[FlyersFan]

dude- put down the baseball plays and slowly back away....

GL!...just hope boiler didn't play any of those (he did go 2-0 last night so maybe he got the mojo turned around)

[Stifler's Mom]

Yea, you're probably right. But since I'm stoopid, I played a few more today. Despite the Friday plays going 2-4, these things happen and I think time off has allowed me to be more patient and see things better, and i'm not forcing plays like I was earlier. Hoping to make a few units heading thru the end of the season and into the postseason. I guess time will tell....

nym +134
bal -105
tb -111
sf +103
oak -101

2 units each

[BoilerBacker]

I actually have 3 straight winning days in bases.

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL. Maybe I should just tail you from here out.

I actually didn't even have time to look at the card yesterday, but I would have played every one of those 6 games from Friday again though given the chance, it just happened that they didn't produce a profit. That's the difference between how I feel now and how I felt after the all star break till I stopped. I would look over my cards as the night went on and think to myself "Why the **** did I play those a$$holes" on a few games a day, even though for some stupid reason they looked like good plays to me prior to the games.

[Stifler's Mom]

Monday 9/7:

Pirates +135

Flubs are bad, real bad, and they've quit.

NY Yankees (game 1) -183

If they weren't prior to yesterday, TB is done. They've gotta be down in the dumps after blowing multiple late leads to Detroit and coming to the realization that their season is over, and now they have to travel to NY face CC @ Yankee stadium with the Yankees looking to bounce back off a pretty bad loss yesterday, and with Jeter looking to take the all time Yankees hit lead? Gotta pay the price, but this is a tough spot for TB, who isn't all that great on the road anyway (29-38), and a great spot for NYY who has the best home record in mlb (45-20).

White Sux +120

Looking for Beckett to continue to struggle, as he's been miserable his last 5 or so starts, giving up the long ball and just lacking control in general. With Buehrle on the hill opposite him, I'll take a shot with the dog here and look for him to be at least somewhat sharp and at the very least keep the White Sux in the game.

2 units each

Brewers +185
Brewers rl +105

I must be insane to back the ****ty Brewers and/or Dave Bush, but I think Carp might struggle today, having to face the Brewers for the 2nd time in less a week, and with the ****ty Brewers off a walk off win that might put a positive feeling in the clubhouse, at least temporarily.

IMO, all things equal, this line should have been Carp -300. MILW sucks and so does Dave Bush, while Carp has been untouchable and STL is coasting to a division title, being nearly unbeatable since the break (except when Kyle Lohse pitches, lol).

Instead, it opened much lower, and even though the numbers show the public all over STL and Carp, this line has dropped from +205 to +185 already, which, if not fishy in the first place, might also indicate that STL may be sitting Pujols and/or Holliday, since it seems hardly anyone is backing MILW, so it's unlikely the line is being brought down by $$$.

Also, it's often tough to bounce back from a walk off loss like STL took yesterday.

This is a play, all things equal, that I wouldn't touch at +500, but I think MILW has a bunch of advantages today that are possibly being overlooked by the public, but not the oddsmakers.

Houston +169
Houston rl +100

Houston hot, Phillies not. Line too high because Phillies look to avoid the sweep. Taking the potential value. That's it. Oh yea, and Brad Lidge blows....

Speds +220
Speds rl +110

Win 8 straight (Reds), throw 3 straight great starts giving up just over 1.5 runs per game in each of them (Bailey), and this is the line you get? Seems it's tough to shake a reputation that you suck, and maybe rightly so. Maybe Bailey will return to the guy who was posting a double digit era for basically his entire career, and the Speds will go on a 10 game losing streak. Who knows. I'm basing it on what the Reds/Bailey have done lately though, and both have been pretty impressive, and while I agree that COL should be favored, this is too much.

The Speds haven't quit when they easily could have a long time ago, and all the pressure is all on COL here, while CIN can go out and just keep on doing what they've been doing.

Again, taking the potential value on a line that should probably be much lower.

1 unit each

[Stifler's Mom]

Looks like no action on Houston with Moyer taking the place of Happ. Value is gone imo at +125, as I actually like Moyer on this spot more than Happ.

[Stifler's Mom]

Texas -134
Yankees rl gm 2 -110

2 units each

HUGE game for TEX with BOS losing and LAA on the ropes at KC. I know their offense hasn't been all that successful lately and they have some injuries, but it's tough to keep a quality offense down forever, and this one hasn't scored for 17 innings. Gotta think they get it going at least a little tonight.

TB is toast. Another demoralizing bullpen loss after being competitive because of a great start from Garza. Andy Sonnanstine is about as poor as it gets, especially on the road, and their pen has been AWFUL. I have a hard time believing they get any type of intensity going for game 2 after that and what happened to them the last few days, while NYY just keeps winning games.

If the Yanks bring it in game 2 with their regulars or at least most of them, they SHOULD win this going away, even if Burnett isn't as sharp as he could be.

Only reason I'm not laying the -220 is because I think either NYY wins in a rout with a quality effort from AJ, or loses outright because Burnett blows again.

[Stifler's Mom]

Tuesday:

Texas gm 1 -129
NYY -146
Pirates +103
Natinals +134
Seattle/LAA u7.5 -110

2 units each

O's +205
O's rl +100
Arizona +173
Arizona rl -105
Padres +220
Padres rl -105

1 unit each

[Daws1089]

gl stif. Good price for us yankees backers considering the current play of the rays.

[Stifler's Mom]

Plus price's road woes, Carlos Pena out for the year now, and that brutal and abused TB pen.

Looks like a good price indeed.

[Daws1089]

yanks again tonight? a relatively low price for joba against neimann? I thought this would be higher.

[Stifler's Mom]

Nah probably not for me. I don't really trust Joba. He's pretty much been trash lately, and they've severely limited his pitch counts lately too. Supposedly they're saving him for the playoffs , but I can't help but wonder if there's more of an issue there.

I don't think I wanna push my luck trying to win 4 straight in 3 days in the same series either.

I'm not about to go backing the rays though anytime soon, especially against the Yankees, as I think they're a mentally crushed team and aren't gonna be happy or satisfied embracing the role of spoiler, and I have a feeling they might lay down the rest if the year.

I could be wrong, but I don't trust em

[Stifler's Mom]

Wednesday Sept 9:

NYM +109

The up and down Nolasco and the Marlins in general don't do much for me, especially as a road fave. The line has moved steadily down in this one opposite a strong public majority, and I'm getting on board too.

Twins +177

Talk about value. Jays way overpriced here because of Halladay. Getting the better team at +177 with a serviceable pitcher in Pavano and normally strong back end of the pen is good enough for me.

Natinals +190

Lee has sucked his last 2 starts, so I can't just expect him to come out firing a 3 hit shutout tonight. Of course the Natinals suck too, lol, but I expect them to have some chances to score tonight, and if they cash them in (unlike last night), I really like their chances to win this one.

Apart from a bunch of solo home runs last night, the Phillies offense has been pretty dormant for a while now....and there's always Brad Lidge who is getting to the point where he almost blows Billy Koch style, and would have without a doubt blown the save again last night had Madson not came in and saved his ass.

Houston -123

WTF? Why isn't this -200? Wandy has given up ONE earned run at home since JUNE, he has given up 0 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 home starts, and just 1 in the other start vs STL in that stretch. He's 8-2 with a 1.80 era overall at home for the season.

I don't know how this doesn't give your team a better than -123 chance to win, but I'll give these odds a shot.

Before losing last night, Houston had won 4 straight over Philly, so I'm confident that they are still competing every night.

Oakland +124

Freddy Garcia blows. I'll take my chances with Cahill and the A's to at least keep it halfway going tonight after pounding out 20 hits and 11 runs last night.

Seattle +190
Seattle/LA Angels over 9 +105

Both of these pitchers are a time bomb waiting to explode, imo.

I also like Seattle's chances much better than almost 2/1 here. LAA is over priced every single day, imo, because their pitching is average to bad every day except the days Lackey starts....but today looks to me like a good spot to try and capitalize on the +190 odds, considering they have a losing record vs SEA this year, showing Seattle can compete with them any given night, they have a pretty poor in division record (19-23) considering they are a first place team, and Seattle generally bounces back nicely in game 2 of a series after losing game 1 this season.

2 units each

[Stifler's Mom]

Thursday:

twins -145

2 units