MLB Playoffs 09 Futures Discussion Thread

[Hoosier]

ok, not sure how many replies this will get but just wanted to get some thoughts out.

first of all, i think the Phillies are the class of the NL. they have the complete package. nobody has a better offense than they do. not even the Red Sox or Yankees.

with that said, i have a strong suspicion that now that the games matter again, the Dodgers will start to play like they were at the beginning of the year. they jumped out to such a huge lead and started so strong, there was no way they could keep that intensity throughout the year. everyone has been making a huge deal of the fact that they finished so poorly to end the season. i don't really give that too much consideration at all. this is a new season.

i think i'm gonna put a little down on the Phillies and Dodgers to win the WS, and in all likelihood, hedge if one of them make it there.

i just don't have a good feeling about the Cardinals, who seem to be the trendy pick out of the NL. i know they have arguably the two best starting pitchers in the NL, but i just don't see that offense being able to score any runs.

Rockies are the wild card, literally and figuritively. i cld see them making the W.S., and i could see them getting swept by the Phillies. i think, in the end, they'll struggle against the LHP of the Phillies.

anybody have any thoughts ot stats to argue or back up my feelings?

EDIT: guess i should have titled this NL futures, as i don't really follow the AL and i don't feel there's much value to be had with the Yankees and Red Sox having ridiculous prices

[Daws1089]

if you like the phils and dodgers to win the world series you'd be much better off betting both of them to win the NL, then if one makes it you can hedge with the AL champ too.


I am concerned with philly's bullpen. A lot of question marks there with romero out and lidge's struggles. It will really depend on the starting pitching for philly. IF they get the Cliff Lee of lately then we could be in trouble. I would have thrown Blanton in the top 2 of the rotation bc hes so solid. Another worry is how quiet the phils bats have been. Utley, victorino and Ruiz have cooled off considerably in the last month and a half. Hopefully they can turn it on, but you just never know if players can do that. I heard it was supposed to snow in COL on Saturday so that would be an interesting game.

[Hoosier]

good input.

Phils bp is definitely a concern. and you're right about Cliff Lee, have a feeling he is Cy Young Cliff Lee in the postseason though.

about the offensive troubles - i think it goes back to focus. it's impossible to focus as much as you did in the begining of the year compared to the end of the year with a big division lead. it's just human nature. Utley is the best 2nd baseman in the game and Howard is the single most dangerous hitter in the game for my money.

i think Ibanez is the key for the Phils. if he plays like he did before he got injured, look out. if you have to pitch to Howard he will hurt you. i think De La Rosa not pitching this series for the Rox is huge. you have GOT to have some good LHP if you want to beat the Phils.

[bookiekilla]

I have disagree with a couple of points here. 1st of all on the Phillies. I do like them beating the rockies as I think their bats will be able to carry them. But no way would I say they're the class of the NL with their BP issues. Now if they get those issues straighened out, go ahead and punch their WS tickets. Also, as far as the Dodgers and Cards...In a 5 game series, having those two aces that the Cardinals have is going to be huge! I just don't see the Dodgers beating the Cards. I could be wrong, but have 2 aces in a 5 game series is huge.

[Hoosier]

bookie -

i agree that the Cardinals have the starting pitching advantage, however, the Cards really have problems with LHP and the Dodgers have Wolf/Kershaw going in the first two games, solid LHPs. i just don't think their starting pitching will prove to be that much better. Dodgers also have the home field advantage, and they are tough at home. Dodgers, IMO, have the better offense and the better BP. it seems like the whole world has jumped on the Cardinals bandwagon. that can be a dangerous situation...

[GMoney]

Originally Posted by Hoosier

bookie -

i agree that the Cardinals have the starting pitching advantage, however, the Cards really have problems with LHP and the Dodgers have Wolf/Kershaw going in the first two games, solid LHPs. i just don't think their starting pitching will prove to be that much better. Dodgers also have the home field advantage, and they are tough at home. Dodgers, IMO, have the better offense and the better BP. it seems like the whole world has jumped on the Cardinals bandwagon. that can be a dangerous situation...

I agree with all these points. Wolf flies under the radar but his ERA is right there with Carpenter's in the mid 2's for the second half of this season. Kershaw is a big Jekyl/Hyde but is more dominant than Carp or Wainright when he's pitching with confidence. Big IF...

The Dodgers do send Vicente Padilla to the mound in game 3 But the Phils did win it all with Jamie Moyer in their playoff rotation last year.

Dodgers lineup is right there by the Phitin' Phils, espeically with Belliard in there. Who'd have thought Russ Martin would be the weak link.

Too much love to St. Louis is a bit of a red flag. Torre will pitch around Pujols and I don't think the others will do enough to hurt the Dodgers.

[Daws1089]

Does Manny Ramirez still play for the dodgers? I don't think I've heard his name once since his first game back from the suspension. Their line up is decent at time, but if ethierand ramirez are not hitting, they become pretty average, but just my opinion.

[Hoosier]

very true Daws, and i'm sorry but i'd rather have Manny come up in a clutch situation in a playoff game than Pujols.

i know LA is 2-5 vs STL this year but i still like them as a dog at home.

how bout Cliff Lee? if Hamels is half as good as he was today the Phils are gonna be near impossible to beat.

[Daws1089]

yea he really came to play. I don't like Hamels because he will never pitch on short rest because he doesn't want to hurt his arm. Not a true "do whatever it takes" type guy. Although, I will love him forever because of his pitching last post season. I just think he's more concerned with himself than the team sometimes. And now that he's won a series, I think he's even less a team guy. Who knows. Another tough lefty matchup for COL again tomorrow. I'd love to see what the line is. If it comes out heavier than Lee, then I think the phils win again. If the line is slightly juiced like upto -120 or less I think COL steals one.

[GMoney]

Daws - you hedging your NL Champ bets? might be worth putting a unit on the Dodgers at +270 at this point. Have to be pretty comfy with where the Phills are

[Daws1089]

I guess I should hedge. I'm not high on LAD, but it would be the smart thing to do. I'll get back to you, but yes I am hedging that. Just not sure when.

[Hoosier]

should be very interesting to see what the price on the Cardinals is now in game 2. i think the Cardinals take game 2, and LA wins out after that.

IMO, Wainwright>Carpenter, and i'm expecting the line for the game to be right around even money. think it's a great spot to bet on STL. the Dodgers got pretty lucky only giving up 3 runs tonight. very easily coulda lost that game with just 1 clutch hit from STL.

[justabrake]

Originally Posted by Hoosier

should be very interesting to see what the price on the Cardinals is now in game 2. i think the Cardinals take game 2, and LA wins out after that.

IMO, Wainwright>Carpenter, and i'm expecting the line for the game to be right around even money. think it's a great spot to bet on STL. the Dodgers got pretty lucky only giving up 3 runs tonight. very easily coulda lost that game with just 1 clutch hit from STL.

"" i think the Cardinals take game 2, and LA wins out after that.""

That's exactly the way I see this series go down

GL

[Hoosier]

for those thinking about taking the Rox in game 2, here are career numbers against Cook:

Jimmy Rollins 11-29 .379 (0 HR/2 RBI)
Chase Utley 8-21 .381 (1 HR/11 RBI)
Ryan Howard 6-17 .353 (1 HR/3 RBI)
Jason Werth 4-10 .400 (0 HR/3 RBI)
Paul Bako 3-7 .429 (1 HR/1 RBI)
Raul Ibanez 2-5 .400 (0 HR/1 RBI)
Matt Stairs 3-3 1.000 (1 HR/1 RBI)
Cairo/Dobbs 1-3 .333 (0 HR/0 RBI)
Pedro Feliz 7-30 .233 (0 HR/2 RBI)

add that to the fact that that LHP owns Col, and this is a no play for me. Hamels could either get rocked or pitch a gem. think OVER is the play...

[GMoney]

Originally Posted by justabrake

"" i think the Cardinals take game 2, and LA wins out after that.""

That's exactly the way I see this series go down

GL

Why?

Kershaw in game 2 is the Dodgers best pitcher, and a lefty. He does have the ability to walk a lot of players but if he pitches to his abilities he will shut down the cards lineup that struggles against lefties.

And games 3 & 4 are in STL and the Dodgers throw Padilla and Billingsly...neither of whom are all that great. Bills has been brilliant at times, but has absolutely **** the bed the second half of this year.