MLB Sat 4/14

[Stifler's Mom]

ytd 45-48 (+5 units)

Going steadily backwards the last 3 days....

Flubs -131

Cincy vs a lefty and another nice line move in favor of the Flubs. Works for me. Hope they don't blow it again if they get a lead.

Washington +230

Hill for the Nats is the best pitcher in MLB that no one knows about. He has never faced the Mets, and this should give him an advantage. Washington's offense is showing signs of coming around, but still stranding a ton of runners on base.

These odds are stupid (the -150 range would be about right IMO) and I see a ton of value in this play. The Nats have a better shot at winning this game IMO than anyone is giving them credit for.

2 units each

Still looking the rest over....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

You're a glutton for punishment. LOL.

That Cubs game yesterday was tough to swallow.

GL Stif....hope you nail 'em both!

[Stifler's Mom]

Tribe -132

2 units

I was going to play this anyway, but I was figuring on a line drop to -120 or so with plenty on the White Sox. The Tribe just got steamed though, so I might as well get it in at -132 before it gets any higher.

[Dutch Goose]

May God help you w/ dem Cubbies, GL today Stif!

[Golden71]

With you on the tribe!!

[birdsfan5]

GL Stif

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL, it's all good. People often give up on teams way too early because of a few failures, or think others are way better than they are because of a few successes.

Sometimes they're right, and sometimes not.

I personally believe you gotta stick to what you believe, especially this early in the season, and I think the Flubs will get things together and be fine this season. Yes, yesterday afternoon's game was a disgrace, but had a team who the public considers to be good or great had a failure like that, it would have been like, oh well, they'll get em today. Since it's the Flubs though, it's "oh man, it's the same old Flubs again"....

In reality, the Reds have proven to be pretty bad vs LHP and a poor road team in general over the course of the last few seasons. Arroyo was a .500 pitcher after his hot start last year too. Not many know, or realize that.....they just remember the 8-0 or 9-0 start, or whatever it was.

And, I think those who have said Washington is the worst team in baseball are flat out wrong. It seems the whole offense just started out in a slump, and they just haven't gotten the timely hits. I think they have way too many quality players to suck for too much longer, and the pitching matchup is at worst a stalemate today, so at +230....yea, I think it's great odds. No guarantees they'll win today, but I can be relatively sure they'd win this matchup at least 1 of 3 times (and IMO that's at the low end of the estimating scale), so it's a profitable situation to play them today if that's the case.

Cleveland is another team who is getting all kinds of hits, but not producing runs. Danks pitched well against Minnesota, who has never hit lefties anyway. I think he'll be a good pitcher, but I also think many are putting too much weight into that performance, and into Byrd's past struggles against the Sox. This isn't the White Sox of 2005, or even 2006....and IMO there's a reason why they're dogged today....and have been most of the season whenever facing a quality opponenet.

I guess we'll see how they turn out....but that's what I was thinking on these.

[Stifler's Mom]

LA Angels +185

2 units

Another line I think is rediculous. If you look at the numbers, where is the Red Sox advantage in this game? I'm not saying the Angels have one either, but in what looks like a coin flip on paper, I'll take +185 every time.

[COACH DITKA]

GL today Stif. Great start to the early games! Glad my Cubbies could get you a W and very nice call on the Nats.

[Stifler's Mom]

NY Yankees -118

Yanks lit Blanton up twice last year from what I remember, leading to 2 pretty early exits. Lets see if they can do it again. Rasner is a bit of a concern, but I'm playing on the Yanks offense in this one at what seems like a fair price for a change. Maybe I'm getting suckered in on this one, but I'll take my chances on the far more potent offense in a spot where it looks like either pitcher could get hammered.

Colorado +115

Cook > Hernandez IMO. Hernandez has pitched well so far this year, including once against Colorado, but I think his lack of velocity and junk pitches are going to catch up to him.

San Diego -113

Peavy > Schmidt IMO, and needless to say the Pads bullpen pretty much always shuts the door if Peavy pitches a good 6 or 7 innings. Padres offense is still a concern, but they have hit Schmidt in the past when he was a Giant, and honestly, i think 3 runs will be enough tonight, which they should be able to get.

2 units each

[Golden71]

Stifler, nice going today!!! We are both on the yanks and Padres. GL to us.

[Daddy Diego]

Goin big on the Pads. First time I've laid 6 units on any team this year.

On the Rockies as well, Livan is due to get hit hard. Let's cash em Stify.