Daddy's HUGE MLB SUNDAY (4.15)

[Daddy Diego]

Put in some serious time for today's games... here's how I'm playing today's card so far...

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CWS @ CLE

- Thought this was a little too much chalk at first glance, as Contreras is coming off a quality start, out dueling the amazing Rich Harden, and has had success against the Tribe in the past. Oh yeah, except for the shelling he received on opening day. 1 inning, 7 runs for the Indians. The bullpens are fairly similar in my opinion, but the White Sox pen has been getting a lot more work in. It’s the hitting that is the big difference in this matchup. The Sox are horrible against lefties. They’ve only managed to put up 8 runs in 9 innings against lefthanders. Guys like Thome and AJ get shut down. Cleveland has been tearing the cover off the ball during day games. Their 1st in the AL in daytime scoring with 27 runs scored. The Sox are 2nd with 26 runs. Only difference, the Tribe has only played 4 day games, the Sox have played 6. With Victor coming back, I don’t see anyway the Tribe lose this one. Cold weather should keep things interesting, so a play on the UNDER is in order, especially with early money coming in on Chicago. With a day off for both teams after today, if the game does get stopped expect them to bring out fresh arms, which should keep the bats quiet in 30 degree conditions.

PICK => INDIANS (-160) = *4 Units
PICK => WHITE SOX/INDIANS UNDER 9 = *3 Units (-120)

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MIL @ StL

- Ben Sheets just doesn’t get any run support on the road, especially against the Cards. Really a shame, cause I have him in the running for the Cy Young this year. He should come out firing after a bad start following a awesome opening day. Looper hasn’t seen any ill effects of the starting role just yet, but it’ll happen. I like a lot of Brewer lefties coming at him. They should send 4 or 5 today. Bullpen to rotation is a tough transition. When’s Pujols going to get his act together? Could be any day now, and then you’ll see the Birds putting up 10 runs a game. Interesting that the Cards don’t do as well as the Brewers on Sundays, could be a sign of lethargic day games. Brewers have been good at putting close games away. I’m taking the Brew Crew to keep St. Louis winless at home. 1st 5 Innings looks real interesting as the Brewers outscore the Cards 29-11 through the 1st 6 innings during their respective 9 games played this year. Will be looking to make a play on that when the line becomes available.

PICK => BREWERS (-125)= *3 Units

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TOR (-105) @ DET (-115) - Runs: 10 (-120)

- I almost put 5 units on the Tigers when I saw this. But then I decided to actually check it out first. Blue Jays current roster has done well against Robertson in the past, but he did shut them down in week 1. Still, the Jays are the best lefty-hitting AL team so far this year. That’s enough to make me think twice about this highly attractive line. Towers is not a mystery to figure out hitting wize, and will be facing the Jays for the first time. Looking at the teams that he has only faced once, he’s gotten shelled 2 out of 3 times. So what will his first start against the Tigers bring? Well the Tigers aren’t swinging hot bats, and the Blue Jays are putting up huge numbers (5+) most nights. But could both teams be silenced, Towers matching Robertson’s solid performance? Or the Jays could light up Robertson in a payback game against a hittable lefty. Think I’m going to lay off this one, unless I see some serious actions pointing towards the Tigers. I see Towers giving up 4-5 runs, but it’s Robertson I’m not sure about. He’s blown up before, did it a lot last season.

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LAA @ BOS
- Lots of chalk here, but for good reason. Santana was light up his only outing in Fenway, and Beckett has been tossing in Cy Young form. With the way the Red Sox finally opened up the flood gates last night, it seems likely that they’d continue that against Santana. Beckett has been getting some real outrageous run support so far this year. Angels are sliding as well, they’re now 1-4 on the road after their hot start at home. Under did look nice towards the 9.5 range, but it’s dropping and I don’t trust Santana one bit on the road. Angels have gone stone cold in Boston. Wrapping this one up in a parlay with the Mets.

WAS @ NYM

- Well I just hope this game happens, because it’s a great parlay option I think. Don’t see Chico bringing anything to the table today. This guys hasn’t even tossed a game in AAA, I feel sorry for the guy getting thrown into the majors on the worst team in the majors. Tough way to get your major league debut. He should get knocked around again today. Maine should tame any spark the Nats had in this damp weather. Shawn Hill won the game for them yesterday, as El Dueque threw it away… or at Shawn Hill I guess. Won’t happen again tonight. Getting a little over even money with these two together.

PICK => METS (-260) & RED SOX (-210) = *3 Units
(1.04 to 1 odds)

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HOU (+140) @ PHI (-160) -Runs: 9.5

- Laying off this one, since it probably won't even happen. Freddy won't have good conditions coming back in his first start, so if he does pitch, who knows how well he'll perform.

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KC @ BAL

- Greinke’s grandparents just died. Sad, but he’ll probably be throwing this one with a lot of emotion. He’s been to hot to think that this could be detrimental. Guthrie is a spot starter with Wright going onto the DL. He’s started against Kansas City last year, and well did very badly. He’s a horrible starter and won’t give the O’s any help on the mound. The blowouts the Orioles handed Greinke in 2004 are fresh in his mind as well. He’s going to want to show something today, much like he has his previous two starts. Purely a play on him today. I really don't get excited by the offensive threat the Royals think they have.

PICK => ROAYLS (-110) = *2.75 Units

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TB (+150) @ MIN (-170) - Runs: 10

- Bonser was solid this spring, and had one bad outing against the Yanks. He’ll bounce back for sure against an over-rated Tampa Bay team. Seo however hasn’t been doing too hot after a little hype about him this season losing some weight, and things won’t be easy in the Twin Cities. The Twins are the worst scoring team against righties right now in the AL though, and that throws up an immediate red flag, especially with the chalk against the Rays. Going to wait on this one for now I think and see if the line drops at all. Might just make a play on the RL if I can get over even money on it.

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Whew. That’s all for now, the Marlins/Braves & Reds/Cubbies aren’t posted yet. I’ll finish up the night games later on. Hope Sunday brings in some

-DD

BOLT!

[oakas]

Great write-ups, Daddy.

Good luck.

[Daddy Diego]

Thanks oakas. Well with the Mets, Royals, and Red Sox getting rained out. Here's some additional picks I'm making today.... probably more later.


BREWERS 1st 5 Innings (-115) = *2.3 Units

INDIANS 1st 5 Innings (-160) = *1.6 Units

TWINS 1st 5 Innings (-175) = *1.75 Units

TIGERS 1st 5 Innings (-125) = *1.25 Units

TWINS (-170) = *2.55 Units

TIGERS (-120) = *3.6 Units

CUBBIES (-160) = *2 Units

MARLINS (+160) = *1 Unit

WHITE SOX/INDIANS No Run Scored in 1st Inning = *1.5 Units (-125)

PARLAY = INDIANS (-165) & TIGERS (-120) = *1.05 Units
(1.94 to 1 odds)

[Daddy Diego]

Next few of plays... been up and down today... hoping to pull out with some green.


RANGERS (-105) = *2.5 Units

wisher weet Play of the Day
>> A's * (-103) = *4.12 Units

DIAMONDBACKS (-144) = *4.32 Units

[BUNK MORELAND]

[Daddy Diego]

A's are amazing. Another crap day, hoping to pull it out with the Pads tonight. Really like C.Y. against Wolf. Dodgers are on their heels.

PADRES (-114) = *2.28 Units

PADRES 1st 5 Innings (-115) = *3.45 Units

[Daddy Diego]

Back to back worst days of the season. Down over 20 units the past two days. Always seems I hit a bad couple day skid on the weekends. I'll be back in it... going to slim down my pickins cause I went bigger the past couple days and paid for it. Played a couple plays like the Marlins and Cubbies today that I didn't even want to, just wanted to get more action after the bad beats. Setting a goal to be back over 20 units by the end of the week.

4.1.07 thru 4.13.07 (47-33-3) +28.32 Units

4.14.07 (4-8-1) -9.20 Units

4.15.07 (6-11-3) -11.23 Units

WTF?

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Daddy's 2007 Baseball Betting Splits (after 4/15/07)

(1st-5) ML (9-4-3) +2.66 Units
(1st-5) Totals (2-3-0) -0.50 Units

Game ML (37-32-2) +11.14 Units
Game RL (2-4-0) -3.00 Units
Game Totals (5-5-1) -0.24 Units

Run Scored in 1st Inning (1-1-0) +0.50 Units

Parlays (1-3-1) -2.67 Units

Total (57-52-7) => +7.89 Units