Daddy's MLB Monday (4.16)

[Daddy Diego]

Here's the early game...

LAA @ BOS

-Huge fade on hitters in the morning, especially the Angels. I remember butt-crack early games in college, rough trying to get things started. It's just a fact that your reaction and brain processing speeds are slower with a lack of sleep and doesn't hit full speed til about 3 hours after you are fully awake.

-This doesn't apply to the pitchers however, who have time to critically think on the mound. That is unless the pitcher has control problems in which the score can easily get elevated from walks. Beckett isn't going to give many free passes. Santana made a promise after his last start that he's going to have better control against Boston, for what that's worth.

-Lets look at the bullpens, the Angels have Speier, Shields, and K-Rod all available. All good strikeout pitchers. The Sox have their whole pen available.

-Boston is clearly the better hitting option in this one. They are at home, things will click faster. The Angels are 10th in daytime run production in the AL as is. Boston is averaging a little over 5 runs during the day... the Angels, just 2 while batting a killer .218 in 4 games. They are solid at home hitting and against righties, while the Angels are doing horrible on the road, and are in the bottom half in the AL against righties.

-Only thing stopping me from making a better value play on the RL are two trends that scare me: Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Angels are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. But I'll take the Sox with Beckett on the mound. The Angels are a good team and are capable of winning a crazy-early game late in which the overall better rested team will most likely pull it out.

-However, the only trends I could find that pointed towards a Boston let down were on Beckett from last year's late season meltdown. Not really applicable.

-With the wind flying in over 20 MPH from right field, this game should be low scoring, which means it'll be close. Granted the wetness doesn't cause major control problems for the pitchers, but Reed should be pretty good about switchin out balls. He's also handed 4 straight wins to Boston at home in his last 4 games there. Hope this game finally freakin gets in. With a 100% chance of rain thou in Boston, it's not looking good.

-If you're not convinced after all that, then fade away. I've been getting my ass kicked the past two days. Probably better off playin the Angels and the over.

--

ANGELS/RED SOX (UNDER 9) = *4.8 Units (-120)

RED SOX (-200) 1st 5 Innings = *2 Units

PARLAY
RED SOX (-200) & UNDER 9 (-120) = *2 Units
(1.75 to 1 odds)

- DD

[wsox08]

GL today DD , I thnk I may add a unit or two more onto the under or on the BoSox..

[Daddy Diego]

This one does look good to me wsox.

Looks like this game won't get off the ground until closer to noon I'm guessing. (If it gets off at all.) Either way, I still like a quite game at the plate with weather in the 30's counting the wind chill.

[joepa66]

BOL to ya DDs...love them BoSox too!

[HabsFan99]

Let's cash this Under! on it big too!

[gadfly36]

gl dd, really like this play

[Daddy Diego]

what did i tell you.

here's to 8 scoreless

[Shawn]

hoping for rain to wash out the game after 5

damm that 9th inning HR...

[Daddy Diego]

Damn you HOWIE KENDRICK!

Definitely made ther right call on that game with Boston and the Under. Gettin a little confidence back after the back to back days of getting worked over. That 6 run 1st was a joke. Oh well, hopefully this is a profitable trend starting for me this morning. Back with tonight's plays in a couple hours.

[Daddy Diego]

KC @ DET

- Greinke just lost his grandparents, and more than likely will dedicate this game to them. The under looks tempting, but the fact that most sports books have it at 7.5 (-120) right now, and I can still get it at 8 (-110) at VIP seems too good to be true, and it might be. The winds are crazy on the east coast right now, and at Comerica Park, they are blowing out to center 25 MPH. Not good for a fly ball pitcher like Greinke. However, he’s handled some pretty good hitting teams in Boston and Toronto, two teams he’s struggled against in the past; and he hasn’t been giving up lots of walks. Detroit is one team that he hasn’t struggled against in the past. He’s 6-1 with a 2.08 ERA in 9 games against the Tigers; including being 4-1 at Comerica Park. Verlander hasn’t given up an earned run yet this year in two starts, and has flat out dominated the Royals current lineup in the past. He was 3-0 with a sub-1.00 ERA against them last year. He also dominated them his first start of the season at KC. He shouldn’t be affected as much by the wind, as he’s more of a groundball pitcher. A solid pitching match up, with two bullpens that have been getting knocked around a little bit makes me like the 1st 5 innings of this game a whole lot more. However, both bullpens are stocked, making who they’ll bring in late in the game a tough call. Both teams are in the bottom half of the AL for hitting during innings 1-6. Both bullpens are statistically fly ball pitching bullpens. Pretty big lean on the Tigers, but at (-200) there isn’t any value there.

PICK => ROYALS/TIGERS 1st 5 Innings - UNDER 4 = *3 Units (+100)

--

BAL @ TB

- Two bright young prospects for these two teams today. Loewen is a brilliant groundball pitcher who’s much better than last year. However with in his limited time against the Rays, he’s been hit to a tune of .341 by the current roster in 41 ABs. Much like Greinke, he’s also taken down a couple of giants in the Tigers and the Yankees. Well the Tigers aren’t much of a giant any more. He hasn’t faired too well at Tropicana either, last year in two appearances (10 IP) he had an 8.10 ERA, while they knocked .310 off him. Things weren’t much better the one game he faced them at Camden Yards. Shields has made huge improvements since last year, at least in the early going. He’s had some tough battles against the Rangers and the Blue Jays that leave most pitchers hurting afterwards. Despite the three bombs given up at Texas (homer field) he did set down 8 guys in a decent effort to pick up the win. Both of these pitchers have been solid early in games, but don’t make it out past the 5th with anything left. Loewen doesn’t even make it to the 6th, and Shields gets lit up in the 6th. For Shields, 7 of his 8 runs allowed this year have come after the 5th inning. Both the D-Rays and the Orioles have been coming out swinging, and are 2nd and 3rd respectively in the AL for run production innings 1-6. Baltimore fades thou, and drops into the bottom half for AL hitting in innings 7+. They also haven’t been too fond of domes so far this year. With the total line dropping form 10.5 now down to 9, I guess I missed the boat on that one, but I didn’t like it to begin with. These two pitchers are both blow-up candidates, including both bullpens.

PICK => D-RAYS (-112) = *2.8 Units

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Here’s the rest… don’t have time for all the write-ups, big day of work to finish up. Here's the 7 o clock games. I'll get the rest out soon.

BRAVES RL -1.5 = *3.5 Units (-125)
- Feel real bad for this Chico guy, wrong team at the wrong time. Atlanta is clobbering lefties.

BREWERS/REDS UNDER 9 = *3.15 Units (-105)
- Both teams suck against lefties, and both have had bullpens that have been lights out.

--

-DD

[on the money]

Excellent writeups but have to disagree with your assessment of the Os pen...I've watch many Os games and their pen is really solid..they went out and got 4 new relievers and resigned the good ones they have...they go lefty and righty very nicely as well....their closer Ray has great stuff...the other guys, Williamson, Parrish etc are solid.....agree Loewen will fade in 5-6 but think the pen edge goes to the Os...if the game is close or tied after 6, I'll take the Os pen over the Rays anyday...but we shall see...Os haven't played well in Tampa in the past so you might have a good play here...

[Daddy Diego]

I agree with you, O's pen is better than the Rays, but their dip in hitting makes this a pretty equal fight in the late innings.

And the 8 O clock games... I'm laying off the SD/CHC game. Way too much up in the air about that one for me. May make a play on the SF/COL game... still looking into it.


CARDINALS (-135) = *5 UNIT MAX PLAY
- Really like Reyes against an over-hyped Snell. Cards broke out the big sticks last game, I expect the barrage to continue.

MARLINS (+106) = *3 Units
- Don't trust Sanchez at all, he's not the same pitcher. More of a play against Wandy and the Stros. Even more of a value play on the Marlins bats.


* Probably goin to lay off the Rockies game. I would love nothing more than to fade Zito here, but Francis hasn't done that well against the Giants, and Zito hasn't really seen many of the Rokcies hitters. His big curveball takes some getting used to, and he could hand the Rockies a low number tonight. Of coarse the way he is pitching he could also give the double digits. Francis pulls out wins in Coors, but I think he gets overrated based on that. He's just not good enough for me to lay any chalk on him tonight against San Franzito.

[Daddy Diego]

Glad I laid off the Rox... hoping to finish solid with this game.

D-BACKS (+108) = *2 Units

DODGERS/D-BACKS Un. 9 = *2.1 Units (-105)

-People are too pumped about the Dodgers, D-Backs got 8 wins and aren't getting any respect at home.

--

[Dutch Goose]

Going against the Blue once again ey?

[Daddy Diego]

At first glance I wanted to play the Dodgers. My mind isn't working right thou, and I'm falling back down to even in only 3 days after a solid first two weeks... so I'm fading my instincts.