MLB Systems, Profiles, Trends, Angles, Etc.

[Meestermike]

This thread is an area for posting any of your successful MLB wagering strategies you have found and are willing to share with the members here at PREDICTEM dot COM.
It is an area that can become very useful in gaining any edge possible on your bookmaker, sportsbook, bookie, local, or from whomever you can make a profit.
Please attempt to demonstrate as much history with what you may provide, as it can only substantiate the validity, profit, R.O.I., and/or success of your strategy.
If needed, this thread will become a sticky for the current season for referral back for everyone to use.

BOL in all of your plays this 2007 season.

[Whaddaplay]

Some charts for moneyline calculations:.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Came across them when I was doing some reviews, thought I would post them.)

UNDERDOG
MONEYLINE PAYOFF PRICE ACTUAL ODDS MULTIPLIER
+400 4.00 4/1 5.00
+350 3.50 7/2 4.50
+300 3.00 3/1 4.00
+280 2.80 14/5 3.80
+275 2.75 11/4 3.75
+270 2.70 27/10 3.70
+260 2.60 13/5 3.60
+250 2.50 5/2 3.5
+240 2.40 12/5 3.4
+230 2.30 23/10 3.30
+225 2.25 9/4 3.25
+220 2.20 11/5 3.20
+210 2.10 21/10 3.10
+200 2.00 2/1 3.00
+190 1.90 19/10 2.90
+185 1.85 37/20 2.85
+180 1.80 9/5 2.80
+175 1.75 7/4 2.75
+170 1.70 17/10 2.70
+165 1.65 33/20 2.65
+160 1.60 8/5 2.60
+155 1.55 31/20 2.55
+150 1.50 3/2 2.50
+145 1.45 29/20 2.45
+140 1.40 7/5 2.40
+135 1.35 27/20 2.35
+130 1.30 13/10 2.30
+125 1.25 5/4 2.25
+120 1.20 6/5 2.20
+115 1.15 23/20 2.15
+110 1.10 11/10 2.10
+105 1.05 21/20 2.05



EVEN
EVEN (-100) 1.00 1/1 2.00



FAVORITE
MONEYLINE PAYOFF PRICE ACTUAL ODDS MULTIPLIER
-105 .95 20/21 1.95
-110 .91 10/11 1.91
-115 .87 20/23 1.87
-120 .83 5/6 1.83
-125 .80 4/5 1.8
-130 .77 10/13 1.77
-140 .71 5/7 1.71
-145 .69 20/29 1.69
-150 .66 2/3 1.66
-155 .64 20/31 1.64
-160 .62 5/8 1.62
-165 .60 20/33 1.60
-170 .59 10/17 1.59
-175 .57 4/7 1.57
-180 .55 5/9 1.55
-185 .54 20/37 1.54
-190 .52 10/19 1.52
-195 .51 20/39 1.51
-200 .50 1/2 1.5
-205 .49 20/41 1.49
-210 .47 10/21 1.47
-215 .46 20/43 1.46
-220 .45 5/11 1.45
-225 .44 4/9 1.44
-230 .43 10/23 1.43
-235 .42 20/47 1.42
-240 .41 5/12 1.41
-250 .40 2/5 1.40
-260 .38 5/13 1.38
-270 .37 10/27 1.37
-275 .36 4/11 1.36
-280 .35 5/14 1.35
-300 .33 1/3 1.33
-320 .31 5/16 1.31
-325 .30 4/13 1.30
Handy to have.

[Whaddaplay]

The probability necessary to win at a given spread is not always something the novice gambler is aware of. This is important because novice gamblers get tempted to bet on the -200 favorite because he/she knows it will likely win the game. What they don't know is that if the given -200 favorite does not have a 66.6% or better chance of winning, it is a losing proposition over the long haul.

How To Calculate For Favorites

A favorite is a team with a negative spread like -105, -150, etc.

Take the absolute value of the spread and divide by itself plus 100. For example, for an -150 team, take 150/250 = 60%. To pull even, our -150 favorite must win 60% of the time.

How To Calculate For Underdogs

Take 100 and divide by 100 plus the spread. For example, a +150 team, take 100/250 = 40%. To pull even, our +150 dog must win 40% of the time.

List of Break Even Percentages

• -200: 66.7%
• -180: 64.3%
• -160: 61.5%
• -140: 58.3%
• -120: 54.5%
• +100: 50.0%
• +120: 45.4%
• +140: 41.7%
• +160: 38.5%
• +180: 35.7%
• +200: 33.3%

If you find yourself betting on a favorite, check the break even percentage to ensure that the bet is a profitable one. If you are looking to bet on baseball over the long haul, keeping an eye on the break even percentage is important. Being able to predict a team's probability of winning is equally as important.

[rjp]

Betting Baseball 2007 by Michael Murray

[Silver & Black]

Originally Posted by rjp

Betting Baseball 2007 by Michael Murray

taking my copy on the plane in a few hours!! Thanks for the suggestion RJP

[yomonte]

Under on the late game on the first Sunday. Your welcome LOL

[yomonte]

Well, not the first Sunday. Only one game and opening day. 4-7-07 Boston @ Texas. Total should be around 9 1/2 with the under juiced.

[tactics]

play aginist the nationals all year long…

[Meestermike]

Originally Posted by rjp

Betting Baseball 2007 by Michael Murray

Where might this book be available?

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by Meestermike

Where might this book be available?

Barnes & Noble store, or .com & amazon. com or at the vegas bookstore:

BETTING BASEBALL 2007 by Murray, Michael

[rjp]

I know for sure you can get it at GBC or Amazon.com.

S&B, did you ever finish reading it?

sometimes i frequently like to bet the young prospects hard early on in the year (like liriano last year). Every once and a while, you'll see a guy with dynamite stuff but vegas doesn't inflate the line fully until some sort of track record is established. It doesn't always have to be a phenom like liriano though, there are always your chuck jameses who emerge ever year. Also, I don't know how much carlos lee helps, but THE ASTROS CANNOT HANDLE FAST PITCHING. Biggio, burke, everett, ausmus, the pitcher, and ensberg all have slow bats (biggio used to be quick) and I did well last year hammering unders and opponents sides' with a starting pitcher throwing in the 92+ mph range. No stats to back this up though!!!

[Silver & Black]

Originally Posted by rjp

I know for sure you can get it at GBC or Amazon.com.

S&B, did you ever finish reading it?

I agree with rjp, great Baseball book. Read it once with a yellow highlighter, it will probably take another two weeks to digest everything that I've highlighted....anxious to put it to work. Thanks again rjp

[rjp]

I finally finished my way through this year's edition last night. I really like how he's added his own experience from last year into the chapters of the book. Make sure you visit his website. I'd post the URL but don't want to upset the admin types.... it's in the book.