April 24th bases with flmmkrz

[flmmkrz]

After a few good days in a row Monday on the bases bit me in the ass. Made the mistake of backing Senile Lou who seems to be losing his mind

Hopefully a better day awaits me on Tuesdays bases...

Might have more to come, these are early lock ins.

Tbay 1st 5 innings + 119 x 1 unit

Tough to gauge if this one is going up or not. I would guess the line could get better for me as the yankee supporters love to back their team but Kazmir has pitched the big bats in the line up rough. Arod 1-14, Jeter 2-17, Damon 3-15, Giambi 2-8. Abreu and Posada have faired the best vs him but have one homerun between the 2 of them in 18 combined at bats. Kazmirs history shows him to be tougher at home than on the road. He's just flat out nasty on lefties and dominated the righties in the line up. Don't trust his pen so taking the 5 inning play. Wang on the bump for the yanks, fresh off an injury lay off. Tampa doesn't have a lot of success vs Wang either but he doesn't pitch as well on the road as he does at home and his history has shown him to get better as the season wears on, so after his injury break and being behind from a stamina point to the rays bats, I am expecting them to be able to get to him early. Good value here with the home dog vs a pitcher who might need some time to settle in and find his rhythm.

Dodgers - 149 to win 1 unit

Not a big fan of the giants line up at the best of times but I don't find this to be a favorable match up at all. Morris gets the start for the giants, he has a lifetime era of 5.4 going into this one vs the dodgers. His history has shown him to be a much better home pitcher, but he finds himself in a road start here. At dodger stadium he holds a lifetime era of 6. The hottest dodger bats, Kent, Gonzalez, Garciapara, Martin, Pierre have all had success hitting him. Lowe is on the mound for the dodgers. He's been hit or miss this year on the road but has proven to be a very good home pitcher over the years. He has a lifetime 3.57 era vs the giants. He has managed to keep Bonds at bay so far. Other members of the line up have hit him but the team as a whole has had very little success getting runs in on him. Dodgers also backed by a solid pen whereas the giants pen is a little unreliable.

Rox + 186 x 1 unit

I like the value here. I know the mets line up is tough but this isn't Pedro or Glavine in their primes up for the mets it's freakin el duque. The lefties in the rox line up love facing him as they've hit him hard and well. Unfortunately there is only a couple lefties in the line up. Hernandez is usually nails vs right handed bats but the rox feature a couple really solid right handed bats who have seen him enough times to know what he's got by now. Cooks not the greatest pitcher but he has pitched much better than his numbers would indicate. Not many of the mets better bats have seen him much which should help him, at least early on and give him the chance to get into the game. Alou would be the main bat that has experience vs him and he's hit him well. I figure the odds are the mets are more likely to win this game than the rox but in a game where I have the mets at around -170ish, I had to jump on this price.

[Daddy Diego]

Like all three! Super value with the Rockies. Valentin won the game for the Mets yesterday. Ooooh. Dodgers/Lowe should be lights out against the ol Giants. Barry might hit one out. Just one. GL!

[joepa66]

Mets should take an el duque today vs. the Rocks....GL

[PhillyFan3]

gl today flmmr

[flmmkrz]

Whoa boy was locking in tbay a mistake, the line has jumped huge.

So I added another unit, something I am not entirely comfortable doing with tampa but value is value and I liked it @ + 119 so

TBay + 144 , 1st 5 innings x 1 unit

And also adding these:

Reds + 134 x 1 unit

Reds have been my fade team all year long, 1st time i've bet them actually. I had planned to leave this game alone but the price moved to the right point to make it a play for me. Well has his problems vs lefties and gets a line up with most of its power and talent off the left side. Harang hasn't been great vs the cards but is a solid road pitcher who can keep eat up innings and with the cards bats not rolling yet it's a good time to take some good value.

Cubbies - 150 to win 1 unit

What the f am I thinking??? Here I am again tho as I have the cubbies as bigger favorites than their price shows at the moment. Hill has been downright dominant so far this season and faces a line up is young and impatient. Z held this line up down only to have his pen blow it for him and Senile Lou coaching him out a win. I again think a pitcher who can work the counts and make these batters chase will have success. Nervous about the pen closing this out for him but I think the Hill vs Brew bats is so much a bigger advantage than Suppan vs the cubby bats that i'll take the chance with it.

Red Sox + 115 x 1 unit

Going against doc and taking the cubbies, my heads screaming what are you doing but my numbers say the value is here. Tavarez doesn't do much for me but he's been servicable at home and facing a jays line up that has to put together a few more performances like last nights before im convinced their bats are going. Docs had his struggles vs the sox in boston and if he has to go to the pen at all they are more than capable of ruining a great game from him. Gladly take the home dogs vs a struggling team

[flmmkrz]

I just realized I don't have any action in the early games so

Tigers - 109 to win 1 unit

I don't see huge value here but I do find some value in this line with Escobar just off the dl. He's been very good at home but first outings are question marks and seeing as the pen was worked hard with Weavers flame out yesterday they aren't exactly in a great spot should be come out flat. Bondermans pitched great so far this year, his bats may finally be waking up to get him some support. The angels haven't had much success vs him in the past and I see no reason why that would change with him pitching very well.

[Silver & Black]

BOL on the day flmmkrz
may tail you on the Rox!

[flmmkrz]

Originally Posted by flmmkrz

I just realized I don't have any action in the early games so

Tigers - 109 to win 1 unit

I don't see huge value here but I do find some value in this line with Escobar just off the dl. He's been very good at home but first outings are question marks and seeing as the pen was worked hard with Weavers flame out yesterday they aren't exactly in a great spot should be come out flat. Bondermans pitched great so far this year, his bats may finally be waking up to get him some support. The angels haven't had much success vs him in the past and I see no reason why that would change with him pitching very well.

one of my better last minute decisions , its not done but its 7-1. I'm calling it, time of death 1:50 loss.

[flmmkrz]

well the tigers got it close only to do what they do best. Finish it off with a loss in style.

[flmmkrz]

Originally Posted by flmmkrz

After a few good days in a row Monday on the bases bit me in the ass. Made the mistake of backing Senile Lou who seems to be losing his mind

Hopefully a better day awaits me on Tuesdays bases...

Might have more to come, these are early lock ins.

Tbay 1st 5 innings + 119 x 1 unit WIN + 1.19 units

Tough to gauge if this one is going up or not. I would guess the line could get better for me as the yankee supporters love to back their team but Kazmir has pitched the big bats in the line up rough. Arod 1-14, Jeter 2-17, Damon 3-15, Giambi 2-8. Abreu and Posada have faired the best vs him but have one homerun between the 2 of them in 18 combined at bats. Kazmirs history shows him to be tougher at home than on the road. He's just flat out nasty on lefties and dominated the righties in the line up. Don't trust his pen so taking the 5 inning play. Wang on the bump for the yanks, fresh off an injury lay off. Tampa doesn't have a lot of success vs Wang either but he doesn't pitch as well on the road as he does at home and his history has shown him to get better as the season wears on, so after his injury break and being behind from a stamina point to the rays bats, I am expecting them to be able to get to him early. Good value here with the home dog vs a pitcher who might need some time to settle in and find his rhythm.

Dodgers - 149 to win 1 unit LOSS - 1.49 units

Not a big fan of the giants line up at the best of times but I don't find this to be a favorable match up at all. Morris gets the start for the giants, he has a lifetime era of 5.4 going into this one vs the dodgers. His history has shown him to be a much better home pitcher, but he finds himself in a road start here. At dodger stadium he holds a lifetime era of 6. The hottest dodger bats, Kent, Gonzalez, Garciapara, Martin, Pierre have all had success hitting him. Lowe is on the mound for the dodgers. He's been hit or miss this year on the road but has proven to be a very good home pitcher over the years. He has a lifetime 3.57 era vs the giants. He has managed to keep Bonds at bay so far. Other members of the line up have hit him but the team as a whole has had very little success getting runs in on him. Dodgers also backed by a solid pen whereas the giants pen is a little unreliable.

Rox + 186 x 1 unit LOSS - 1 unit ( SOOO CLOSE )

I like the value here. I know the mets line up is tough but this isn't Pedro or Glavine in their primes up for the mets it's freakin el duque. The lefties in the rox line up love facing him as they've hit him hard and well. Unfortunately there is only a couple lefties in the line up. Hernandez is usually nails vs right handed bats but the rox feature a couple really solid right handed bats who have seen him enough times to know what he's got by now. Cooks not the greatest pitcher but he has pitched much better than his numbers would indicate. Not many of the mets better bats have seen him much which should help him, at least early on and give him the chance to get into the game. Alou would be the main bat that has experience vs him and he's hit him well. I figure the odds are the mets are more likely to win this game than the rox but in a game where I have the mets at around -170ish, I had to jump on this price.

so far 1-3, -2.39 units

[flmmkrz]

Originally Posted by flmmkrz

Whoa boy was locking in tbay a mistake, the line has jumped huge.

So I added another unit, something I am not entirely comfortable doing with tampa but value is value and I liked it @ + 119 so

TBay + 144 , 1st 5 innings x 1 unit WIN + 1.44 units

And also adding these:

Reds + 134 x 1 unit WIN + 1.34 units

Reds have been my fade team all year long, 1st time i've bet them actually. I had planned to leave this game alone but the price moved to the right point to make it a play for me. Well has his problems vs lefties and gets a line up with most of its power and talent off the left side. Harang hasn't been great vs the cards but is a solid road pitcher who can keep eat up innings and with the cards bats not rolling yet it's a good time to take some good value.

Cubbies - 150 to win 1 unit LOSS -1.5 units ( DAMN THEY STINK AND IM STUPID FOR LETTING THEM BURN ME AGAIN)

What the f am I thinking??? Here I am again tho as I have the cubbies as bigger favorites than their price shows at the moment. Hill has been downright dominant so far this season and faces a line up is young and impatient. Z held this line up down only to have his pen blow it for him and Senile Lou coaching him out a win. I again think a pitcher who can work the counts and make these batters chase will have success. Nervous about the pen closing this out for him but I think the Hill vs Brew bats is so much a bigger advantage than Suppan vs the cubby bats that i'll take the chance with it.

Red Sox + 115 x 1 unit LOSS - 1 unit

Going against doc and taking the cubbies, my heads screaming what are you doing but my numbers say the value is here. Tavarez doesn't do much for me but he's been servicable at home and facing a jays line up that has to put together a few more performances like last nights before im convinced their bats are going. Docs had his struggles vs the sox in boston and if he has to go to the pen at all they are more than capable of ruining a great game from him. Gladly take the home dogs vs a struggling team

usually my value plays serve me well, bit me in the ass today, happens.

1.44 + 1.34 - 1.50 - 1

2 - 2, + .28 units

which makes for an overall day of:

1-3 , -2.39 units
2-2, + .28

3-5 , - 2.11 units