April 27th bases with flmmkrz

[flmmkrz]

Well yesterday made it 3 straight down days. Haven't lost all that much but it's a trend I want to end now. Hoping I get the bounces today cause I love the card...

Pitt - 151 to win 1 unit

I know this much chalk on a bad team may not scream value but my numbers tell me it is. Snell is a stud and he's been chewing up lefties all year, almost all of the reds big bats are lefties, Girff, Dunn, Hamilton. The reds as a team are batting .215 against them. Meanwhile the bucs may stink but Milton stinks just as badly and the bucs have shown a history of being able to knock him around. Lotta chalk but it's warranted here.


Houston - 151 to win 1 unit

Oswalt at home is as close to a guaranteed solid outing as you can expect on the bases. Capuano has to match him and he's shown he hasn't been as good vs the stros in houston and as good as he is at home period. Oswalt will do his job, now the stros bats have to do theirs. With a stud on the mound I see plenty of value here.

Cubbies + 118 x 1 unit

I hate that I keep finding value on these guys cause they're killin me but i'm not gonna stop now cause they're gonna pay me back eventually. Marquis has been rock solid this year while Reyes has been hit by the cubbies in the past. Hotter pitcher and line up with success vs the opposing pitcher, winning combo and I get + odds for it. Value.

Padres -110 to win 1 unit

Back to fading Hendrickson. He burned me last time out but I am not convinced any more than I was last time that he can keep pitching like he has. Hensley is a good young pitcher who has struggled this season but I feel that brings value to him as he should be a bigger favorite than this especially given the way the dodgers are swinging these days.

Detroit - 148 x 1 unit

Robertsons been good all year and backed by a pen that looks to be getting its act together. Im not a big fan of Ortiz and the tigers can send out a lefty loaded line up vs him which should make his outing that much tougher. Helps that very few of the twins bats are even swinging luke warm at the moment. If Ortiz starts off the season at a slower rate this price would be -170s so i'll gladly take this.

Texas + 119 x 1 unit

I get to fade towers and get + odds, thanks. He's had a tight 7.9 era vs the rangers. Tejeda for his part has been solid this year and gets a line up missing some key bats. Helps that this is his first time vs the jays as it'll give him an early edge. If he can keep from blowing up, the rangers bats should give him plenty of support.

Chi Sox - 122 to win 1 unit

Santanas a mess on the road, he's proving it again this year. The sox have solid enough bats that they should be able to take advantage of this. Contreras is a good home pitcher and has shown he can pitch the angels tough. Not much of a price to pay to fade Santana on the road, i'll take it gladly.

Seattle - 133 to win 1 unit

Small price to pay to fade kc on the road. Ramirez isn't much but he's been a decent home pitcher and i'll take him with the m's bat vs kc.

If the line on the o's keeps moving I might take them. I don't like Trachsels numbers vs the tribe but if it'll hit the 150's it'll be a little more interesting.

[flmmkrz]

Well I guess it's not going up anymore so Baltimores not a play but forgot to include

Florida @ + 155 x 1 unit is a play.

Tempted by SF now but that line screams fishy to me. Davis stinks, Giants on a roll and -113 with Zito? Tempted but leaving it.

[flmmkrz]

Couldn't completely talk myself out of the baltimore game

O's/Tribe over 10 @ -107 to win 1 unit

[flmmkrz]

and one more over

Mets/Nats over 9 @ -123 to win 1 unit

[Golden71]

Me and you both in the loser boat. I agree with many of your plays. GL my friend.

[flmmkrz]

Originally Posted by flmmkrz

Well yesterday made it 3 straight down days. Haven't lost all that much but it's a trend I want to end now. Hoping I get the bounces today cause I love the card...

Pitt - 151 to win 1 unit WIN + 1 unit

I know this much chalk on a bad team may not scream value but my numbers tell me it is. Snell is a stud and he's been chewing up lefties all year, almost all of the reds big bats are lefties, Girff, Dunn, Hamilton. The reds as a team are batting .215 against them. Meanwhile the bucs may stink but Milton stinks just as badly and the bucs have shown a history of being able to knock him around. Lotta chalk but it's warranted here.


Houston - 151 to win 1 unit LOSS - 1.51 units

Oswalt at home is as close to a guaranteed solid outing as you can expect on the bases. Capuano has to match him and he's shown he hasn't been as good vs the stros in houston and as good as he is at home period. Oswalt will do his job, now the stros bats have to do theirs. With a stud on the mound I see plenty of value here.

Cubbies + 118 x 1 unit WIN + 1.18 units

I hate that I keep finding value on these guys cause they're killin me but i'm not gonna stop now cause they're gonna pay me back eventually. Marquis has been rock solid this year while Reyes has been hit by the cubbies in the past. Hotter pitcher and line up with success vs the opposing pitcher, winning combo and I get + odds for it. Value.

Padres -110 to win 1 unit LOSS - 1.10 units

Back to fading Hendrickson. He burned me last time out but I am not convinced any more than I was last time that he can keep pitching like he has. Hensley is a good young pitcher who has struggled this season but I feel that brings value to him as he should be a bigger favorite than this especially given the way the dodgers are swinging these days.

Detroit - 148 x 1 unit LOSS - 1.48 units

Robertsons been good all year and backed by a pen that looks to be getting its act together. Im not a big fan of Ortiz and the tigers can send out a lefty loaded line up vs him which should make his outing that much tougher. Helps that very few of the twins bats are even swinging luke warm at the moment. If Ortiz starts off the season at a slower rate this price would be -170s so i'll gladly take this.

Texas + 119 x 1 unit WIN + 1.19 units

I get to fade towers and get + odds, thanks. He's had a tight 7.9 era vs the rangers. Tejeda for his part has been solid this year and gets a line up missing some key bats. Helps that this is his first time vs the jays as it'll give him an early edge. If he can keep from blowing up, the rangers bats should give him plenty of support.

Chi Sox - 122 to win 1 unit WIN + 1 unit

Santanas a mess on the road, he's proving it again this year. The sox have solid enough bats that they should be able to take advantage of this. Contreras is a good home pitcher and has shown he can pitch the angels tough. Not much of a price to pay to fade Santana on the road, i'll take it gladly.

Seattle - 133 to win 1 unit WIN + 1 unit

Small price to pay to fade kc on the road. Ramirez isn't much but he's been a decent home pitcher and i'll take him with the m's bat vs kc.

If the line on the o's keeps moving I might take them. I don't like Trachsels numbers vs the tribe but if it'll hit the 150's it'll be a little more interesting.

Im getting a bit sick of this now. Detroit with a lead going into the 8th they go to their pen and its a loser. Florida goes to the 8th with a lead and the bullpen blows it, another loser. The padres up comfortably in the 9th and Hoffman coughs up the game. Meanwhile when I need a bullpen to explode they clamp it down at 9 runs so I cant at least push with the tribe game. When it rain it pours.

-2.3 units on the overs that both missed. 0-2

+ 1.28 units on the above plays. 5-3

5-5, -1.02 units SICKENING, least the canucks won tonight although I had no money on them.