Question on homefield advantage

[hodown]

Does anyone have an idea on how much of an edge the home team has on average in baseball? I know certain teams have bigger advantages over others, but is there a general consensus for an overall average. Football is roughly 3-4 points on avg.

I ask because I see a line like todays LAA/KC game and Lackey is down around -155 at my book and I have to believe he'd be around -200 if this game was being played in Anaheim.

If anyone can provide some insight, I'd greatly appreciate it, ty

[Kevin]

This is a GREAT question.

Ive made some calls and left some messages to some people who would know.

I'll report back when I hear back from them.

[Kevin]

OK, I got some great answers from some great minds.

Its worth about 35 cents on the odds.

So you were correct when you said the Angels were -155 and would be near -200 (actually -190) if they were at home.

I also found this:

Home teams win 53.6% of the time as opposed to road teams winning 46.4%. Therefore the home team advantage is worth 7.2%.

[COACH DITKA]

Thanks Hodown, that was a good question that I had always wondered myself.
Once again, great work Kev!

[FlyersFan]

doesn't it have a lot to do with the pitcher, as well? i would think it would have more to do with that than where they are playing.

Take Derek Lowe for example. I would have to think they would factor in his home ERA at like 2.20 vs. Road ERA at like 7.00. Also guys like ESantana for Ananheim who is great at home and bad on the road. Chan Ho Park with the Doyers comes to mind a few years ago. he was like 4000-0 with a 2.00 ERA at home and he couldn't get out of the first inning on the road. Woody Williams in STL was always night and day better at home. Conversely there are guys who don't pitch well in their home park and better on the road.

So how do you factor in the pitching matchup with the home/away thing?

[Kevin]

More good questions. I dont have an answer for that though lol

[hodown]

thx Kev for the help. I'm just messing around and trying to come up with a few cheat systems and figured that homefield must have some sort of bearing on the odds. there's no doubt that different pitchers behave differently on the road compared with home, but just wanted to hold all those factors constant to see what affect homefield had.

so were looking at 35 cents on the dollar and 7% points with the overall outcome. so what do u think, 0.5 runs per game for the home team???