MLB Tuesday 5/1

[Stifler's Mom]

ytd 107-116 (-12.73 units)

Chicago Flubs -147

Tony Armas Jr. just sucks. He has made 3 starts this season, and been rocked twice, giving up 6 runs in 4 innings vs the Reds, and making it a whole 2 2/3 vs the Dodgers before succeeding in giving up 8 runs and being yanked. The only team who he had any kind of success against was Houston, and I think the reason for that is self explanatory. I'll take my chances that Lilly is better than Armas tonight, and knowing he's backed by the better offense as well.

Toronto Blue Jays +136

What kind of stupid line is this? AJ is every bit as dominant as CC, if not more so. The only difference is that the blow ups seem to be more few and far between for CC than AJ, even though I have no actual proof of that. Toronto is hitting .309 vs LHP though, as compared to .255 for the Tribe vs RHP. Statistical edge to Toronto, homefield edge to Cleveland. I'm not underestimating the Tribe, because I think they're a good team....but I think either team could win this one, and this line should be a pick em, therefore I'm taking the big value with the Jays.

Philadelphia Phillies -130

Much like Tony Armas Jr, Mark Redman sucks too. His only decent outing of the season was against the Flubs, who can't hit a lefty worth a ****. In his other 3 starts he was pretty much rocked, once by the Mets and twice by the Marlins. I see no reason Philly can't continue this trend. Much more upside to Hamels than Redman, and anytime another divisional team is favored by this much in Atlanta, there's good reason. This is a game the Phillies should win.

Milwaukee Brewers -120

This one isn't about the Sheets or Looper, but rather about fading the unfortunate Cardinals. They've been put in a tough spot once again with the loss of Josh Hancock, who I'm sure was close to many guys on the team. Facing Sheets' nasty stuff is probably not the best spot for them to bounce back, and the Brewers are the better team to begin with. It hasn't been the best season for Ben, but he's still at the absolute worst an average hurler, and still always capable of a gem. It's a sad situation the Cards have once again been put in for sure for sure, but, whatever it takes to find an advantage....and I believe the Brewers have one tonight.

KC Royals +125

I swear this Greinke kid screws me every time I back KC when he pitches, and then when I lay off, he throws a great game. Coming from someone who actually watched the game last night though, it could be easily argued that KC outplayed the Angels in that one, yet lost because they lost a run when Ryan Sheely pulled a hamstring on his way home, which got him thrown out at the plate and cost KC a run, and then because of a completely missed call on a double play turned by the Angels, which was followed by a bunch of KC hits with 2 outs, that easily would have plated 1 run at the very least (which would have made it 3-3 had KC not caught those 2 terrible breaks), and probably more had the inning had one less out and been able to continue. I am hoping Greinke > Odalis Perez, and that KC either outplays the Angels and just wins, or maybe catches some of the breaks tonight at another nice dog price that should be closer to a pick em from where I stand.

Washington Nationals +147

I am not really favorable to backing a poor team to win 2 straight games, especially on the road, but look at the match up here. Mainly the pitching one. Shawn Hill for Washington is doing nothing but giving quality starts to his team (he hasn't given up more than 2 runs in any of his 5 starts), while Young has been roughed up a bit this year, and especially 2 of his last 3, in which he got nailed by the Dodgers on a Sunday night, and then last time out getting beaten on by Arizona to the tune of 5 runs in 5 1/3 IP. Like I have said many times before, Young is a decent pitcher, but he draws way too much public love and line respect because of the hot stretch he put together last year. Facing the Nats may help his recent struggles, but IMO he's gonna have to be good to pick up the win tonight, as Hill has been nothing but good so far. This may end up being a close game if both pitchers bring their good stuff against 2 questionable offenses, but I get a pretty damn large dog price to back the Nats, so I'm there.

Seattle Mariners -115

Seattle is favored here for a reason. I see that mainly as that the White Sox are statistically one of the worst offenses in the AL, tied with Oakland for a league worst 95 runs scored to this point in the season (granted they've played 2 less games than Oakland)....and it's worse when they face a lefty. They are hitting a mere .197 vs LHP this season. That's atrocious. Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko aren't hitting ****, and to add to their problems, Jim Thome is on the DL, along with Scott Podsednik who remains there as well. Win or lose, the M's are a steal tonight at this low price.

2 units each

Might add one or two more if i can find a reason to. There were a few others I liked, mainly Detroit and TB, but I'm having a hard time finding enough of an advantage to justify a play on either one of them.

[joepa66]

BOL to ya Stiffie....love them Jays, well, at least the Mitt does!

[Underdog88]

GL Stif- agree with most, disagree with the scrubs, just don't like laying with them.... I have the Indians +2.5 in a parlay, so I'd be more than happy if they lost by 2

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

GL...we're on the same page tonight...good to see....although I'm taking the Cards....nice to see you on those sick value Jays and Phils lines...

Great writeups

[birdsfan5]

GL Stif