May 3rd bases with flmmkrz

[flmmkrz]

Not a huge sched today but I like a few games....

Mets -129 to win 1 unit

Owings is a very good prospect but getting a known commodity in Glavine with the mets bats at -129 screams value. Especially when the dbacks are struggling with a .233 vs lefties. Owings does have the bonus of not having faced some of these batters before so he could get into the game and settle in if he is on but Glavine while around forever hasn't seen a lot of these dback bats either and the ones he has faced haven't had much success vs him.

Angels - 114 to win 1 unit

Weaver and the angels bullpen vs the kc bats at this low a price again is value. He's faced them twice and has a spotless .06 era vs them. He struggled a bit coming back off injury but looked to be find his form his last outing and I expect him to perform more like that guy then the one who struggled coming back. The angels know Meche very well from his days with my mariners. He has been solid this year but despite a winning record vs the angels in the past he has a lofty 5.38 era vs them lifetime so they should be able to hit him and he doesn't have the luxury of having big bats in his lineup to bail him out. Cabrera and Figgins who has returned to the line up have hit him well in the past and Vlad doesn't have huge numbers vs him but has gotten to him as well. Better line up, better pen and better starting pitcher on the mound for -114, count me in.

Tbay -104 to win 1 unit

Shields continues to be a good young pitcher who the books and bettors overlook. As such he gets pretty good value. His numbers at home have been much better than away and comes in to this game in great form. Ortiz has been in great form but unlike with Shields, Ortiz has been around a while and we know what we are getting from him, which to me means eventually he'll comeback to the pitcher we all know him to be unless he's done something to alter his game but I haven't heard anything of the sort. Ortiz is gonna come after these ray batters and the line up is made to hit guys like him. The rays win games with the long ball and he's prone to giving them up.

Rangers + 159 x 1 unit

Lots of value here. I love to fade millwood but even good fade guys can come up with value and thats what im getting here. Pettittes been brutal over his career at Ameriquest and had his struggles vs them his whole career. The rangers for their part as a team are spanking lefties this season and Pettittes had his problems vs strong lefty line ups. Tex, Hairston, Wilkerson, Young, Sosa have all been able to hit him fairly well. Kinsler hasn't faced him but is hitting lefties well. Millwoods numbers vs the yanks are better than Andys vs the rangers tho not spectacular either. The big yankee bats have hit him hard however but both sides should be able to put up runs today so with no huge edge either way the + im getting on the rangers is way too much for me to ignore.

I wouldn't mind a piece of the giants but the price is inflated at the moment if it drops I could end up on that game. A bit choked that Im not getting to fade Milton today as he's up against a weak ass line up and an equally brutal pitcher. A shame as i'd fade both of these guys but against the other they cancel each other out.

[flmmkrz]

and after doing my write up I find out Millwoods out. As such im off the rangers play as Im not banking on a minor leaguer to shut down the yanks line up for any amount of time.

[joepa66]

Man I love those first two....GL!

[flmmkrz]

Originally Posted by flmmkrz

Not a huge sched today but I like a few games....

Mets -129 to win 1 unit WIN + 1 unit

Owings is a very good prospect but getting a known commodity in Glavine with the mets bats at -129 screams value. Especially when the dbacks are struggling with a .233 vs lefties. Owings does have the bonus of not having faced some of these batters before so he could get into the game and settle in if he is on but Glavine while around forever hasn't seen a lot of these dback bats either and the ones he has faced haven't had much success vs him.

Angels - 114 to win 1 unit LOSS - 1.14 units

Weaver and the angels bullpen vs the kc bats at this low a price again is value. He's faced them twice and has a spotless .06 era vs them. He struggled a bit coming back off injury but looked to be find his form his last outing and I expect him to perform more like that guy then the one who struggled coming back. The angels know Meche very well from his days with my mariners. He has been solid this year but despite a winning record vs the angels in the past he has a lofty 5.38 era vs them lifetime so they should be able to hit him and he doesn't have the luxury of having big bats in his lineup to bail him out. Cabrera and Figgins who has returned to the line up have hit him well in the past and Vlad doesn't have huge numbers vs him but has gotten to him as well. Better line up, better pen and better starting pitcher on the mound for -114, count me in.

Tbay -104 to win 1 unit WIN + 1 unit

Shields continues to be a good young pitcher who the books and bettors overlook. As such he gets pretty good value. His numbers at home have been much better than away and comes in to this game in great form. Ortiz has been in great form but unlike with Shields, Ortiz has been around a while and we know what we are getting from him, which to me means eventually he'll comeback to the pitcher we all know him to be unless he's done something to alter his game but I haven't heard anything of the sort. Ortiz is gonna come after these ray batters and the line up is made to hit guys like him. The rays win games with the long ball and he's prone to giving them up.

Rangers + 159 x 1 unit CANCELLED DUE TO PITCHER CHANGE

Lots of value here. I love to fade millwood but even good fade guys can come up with value and thats what im getting here. Pettittes been brutal over his career at Ameriquest and had his struggles vs them his whole career. The rangers for their part as a team are spanking lefties this season and Pettittes had his problems vs strong lefty line ups. Tex, Hairston, Wilkerson, Young, Sosa have all been able to hit him fairly well. Kinsler hasn't faced him but is hitting lefties well. Millwoods numbers vs the yanks are better than Andys vs the rangers tho not spectacular either. The big yankee bats have hit him hard however but both sides should be able to put up runs today so with no huge edge either way the + im getting on the rangers is way too much for me to ignore.

I wouldn't mind a piece of the giants but the price is inflated at the moment if it drops I could end up on that game. A bit choked that Im not getting to fade Milton today as he's up against a weak ass line up and an equally brutal pitcher. A shame as i'd fade both of these guys but against the other they cancel each other out.

2-1, + .86 units

not a huge day but a + day.