May 4th bases with flmmkrz

[flmmkrz]

Braves - 151 to win 1 unit

Doesn't seem like a lot of value on the surface but Smoltz at home against a team he's had success against vs Tomko on the road is a match up I really like. That I can get it under -180ish where I think the line should be is value.

Pitt + 149 x 1 unit

I just don't trust Vargas's start. I don't believe he can keep it up and that some key bats for the bucs like Bay, Sanchez, LaRoche have been able to get to him in limited at bats only makes me like going him that much more. Even better is that he has been a terrible home pitcher during his career. Maholm is a decent pitcher that has shown he can handle the brew line up in the past. At this price it's worth it to me to back him to do it again.

Mets - 118 to win 1 unit

Love the mets on the road at the worst of times but RJ is living off his name at this point while Maine is proving to be the real deal so far in his career. Doesn't hurt that the mets have had success vs Johnson in the past.

O's -117 to win 1 unit

I didn't think this line would take off as quickly as it did as I held off locking it in thinking it would go the other way but I guess many are thinking the way I am in this one. Bedard at home has been solid thru his career, has pitched the tribe well for the most part but more than anything this ones a Byrd fade. Like with vargas a couple plays ago I dont think he can maintain this pace he's set. The o's have some bats I believe that can get to him and from watching the tribe/jays series I can say I like being able to go against the tribe pen while fading Byrd. It's a 2fer.

Tigers - 153 to win 2 units

Slightly bigger play than the others. Verlander lost to kc earlier this year but he was stellar in that game but Senor Mesa walked in and blew his outing up. Didn't help that De La Rosa matched his stellar game. Bannister isn't having nearly the year De La Rosa is. Detroits bats are coming alive and the pen is cleaning up its act. At home this one is easily -200 so for this small a price I see value all over this play.

Minny + 107 x 1 unit

Minny for whatever reason matches up well the with the bosox. I'm not got fight the numbers when they give me + odds. Silva has looked great on the mound this year and has been solid at home thru his career. Wakefields a hit or miss pitcher and has had his struggles vs Hunter, Mauer and Morneau. Anytime a pitcher struggles vs those 3 in the minny line up it's usually a good day for minny.

GL all

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

GL...like the O's....check out Clevelands numbers against lefties this year...not terrific....

Sorry about your "nuckers"....unforunately they were a one man team all year....without Luongo they are under .500.

GL

[flmmkrz]

Originally Posted by flmmkrz

Braves - 151 to win 1 unit WIN + 1 unit

Doesn't seem like a lot of value on the surface but Smoltz at home against a team he's had success against vs Tomko on the road is a match up I really like. That I can get it under -180ish where I think the line should be is value.

Pitt + 149 x 1 unit LOSS - 1 unit

I just don't trust Vargas's start. I don't believe he can keep it up and that some key bats for the bucs like Bay, Sanchez, LaRoche have been able to get to him in limited at bats only makes me like going him that much more. Even better is that he has been a terrible home pitcher during his career. Maholm is a decent pitcher that has shown he can handle the brew line up in the past. At this price it's worth it to me to back him to do it again.

Mets - 118 to win 1 unit WIN + 1 unit

Love the mets on the road at the worst of times but RJ is living off his name at this point while Maine is proving to be the real deal so far in his career. Doesn't hurt that the mets have had success vs Johnson in the past.

O's -117 to win 1 unit WIN + 1 unit

I didn't think this line would take off as quickly as it did as I held off locking it in thinking it would go the other way but I guess many are thinking the way I am in this one. Bedard at home has been solid thru his career, has pitched the tribe well for the most part but more than anything this ones a Byrd fade. Like with vargas a couple plays ago I dont think he can maintain this pace he's set. The o's have some bats I believe that can get to him and from watching the tribe/jays series I can say I like being able to go against the tribe pen while fading Byrd. It's a 2fer.

Tigers - 153 to win 2 units WIN + 2 units

Slightly bigger play than the others. Verlander lost to kc earlier this year but he was stellar in that game but Senor Mesa walked in and blew his outing up. Didn't help that De La Rosa matched his stellar game. Bannister isn't having nearly the year De La Rosa is. Detroits bats are coming alive and the pen is cleaning up its act. At home this one is easily -200 so for this small a price I see value all over this play.

Minny + 107 x 1 unit LOSS - 1 unit

Minny for whatever reason matches up well the with the bosox. I'm not got fight the numbers when they give me + odds. Silva has looked great on the mound this year and has been solid at home thru his career. Wakefields a hit or miss pitcher and has had his struggles vs Hunter, Mauer and Morneau. Anytime a pitcher struggles vs those 3 in the minny line up it's usually a good day for minny.

GL all

today:

4-2, + 3 units

solid day but boy do those bucs stink.