MLB Betting Thoughts

[akatdrake]

I sort of wanted to start a discussion on the way people bet MLB.

I started betting MLB fulltime in 09 and got smacked around. I laid way way too much chalk and paid for it to the tune of a loss of about 62 units. Last year, I bet fulltime and made about 16 units. I cut down the number of bets by about 40 percent and made a profit.

I personally love streaks and trends, but won't bet with winning streaks, or losing streaks. I may make a bet on a team or against a team on a streak, but I don't factor that into account when I'm paring down my picks.

Pitching is a huge issue - two years ago Udog was crushing the first-fives, capitalizing on the starting pitching matchups and basically ignoring the bullpen. Everyone has those games that look golden until the pen comes in.

If you guys have been following my NHL strategy... all I do is play small underdogs from +100 to +125. I figured even the greatest teams loose a fair share, and there doesn't seem to be a "home-field" advantage too much anymore. I started this on January 18th, and with a few puck lines thrown in, am +28 units so far. I'm going to track small underdogs in baseball to the same tune - full-game and first-fives, hoping there's similar success.

What do you guys do for MLB?

[Badger]

I'll be your Huckleberry T-Drake!

I agree with you 100% that if you chase the chalk all the time it's a recipe for disaster. My personal "cutoff" range is about -140ish. Once you start forcing a unit-and-a-half to two units on a play you are setting yourself up to fall into a hole quick. Now, that said, I will on occasion go after a fave up to -160 or -170 ... but only where I see a perceived MAJOR ERROR by the book in setting the line. I rarely, if ever, cross the -170 line because there's just no reason to risk so much when (usually) there are 29 other sides/totals that offer better value.

I personally have never been into what I consider the "gimmicky" bets like first fives, runlines, etc.. Although, I can see where a certain pitching matchup on a first five would be high value. I'll have to pay attention to you and Udogg's posts this summer and dabble a little on those. It may be time to pop my cherry!

I never go more than 5 bets in a day. And most of those are on the underdogs in the +110 to +130 range that you yourself are having success with too. IMO it's the underdogs where the money is made. I'm also a big player of totals.

I've always had great success in betting MLB because, IMO, there are so many games every day where the oddsmakers can "screw up" the line. Up to 30 different sides and 30 over/unders each day, and they only have a 24-hour window to set the line, whereas in football they can anaylize the numbers for up to a full week, set the line and then move it all over if they make a mistake. No such luck in MLB. They have to live with mistakes and hope to make less the next day. I'll take my chances that I know more about pitching and teams when there's less time for them to "catch up to the curve" so to speak.

I also like the fact that the "public" really doesn't bet on MLB. No squares, less "public" money pouring in, it's more of a game for sharp bettors finding errors in the oddsmakers thinking. Again, I like my chances there.

I'm working on some "tips" articles for the site. Hope to have them coming in soon, so be sure to check them and and let me know if I'm full of **** or not!

GOOD LUCK IN 2011!! Let's crush!

[Franchise]

For me I like to restrict my chalk plays to what I think is smart most of the time and I tend to keep my plays between the 130's. I take the park factor into account fairly significantly in determining what type of play I will consider on a game. If the game is at the Dodgers, Padres, Mariners, A's, Mets, I'm very rarely going to play a RL and will be much more likely to consider a dog, especially a large one (200+). Where as when the game is played in NY, Boston or Colorado I am very willing to consider the RL since their tends to be more runs scored. I also looked at NY over a couple of month stretch last year and I was surprised at the percentage of games they won by 1 run (it was pretty low).

For the individual game I like to look at the pitchers recent workload as well as the lineup he'll be facing and how long I can expect him to go in the game. Some teams are more susceptible to certain sides like Boston vs LHP this year. I also like to take into account bullpen fatigue. After short outings from a starter sometimes the bullpen gets plowed through and that can be a factor for a few days. Or if someone like Joe Torre is managing you can expect to have some days where he has run the same RP's out 3 days in a row and they will either be out of gas for a few days or very ineffective.

I also greatly enjoy playing totals on MLB. At the end of last season I tightened up some things and started to use the RL's to get better odds and really pushed my figure in a positive direction over an extended period.

And remember, it's always smart to bet against Josh Beckett.

[akatdrake]

I'll look forward to the posts, Badger! The big faves really got to me under my first season... especially if you get in a hole early and don't exercise good money management. I mean the Yanks are -200 faves vs the lowly Royals, they cannot lose, can they? Double or triple the bet and bam - hole. It's funny how my way of thinking has evolved (or de-evolved if you see my NCAAB record) in some aspects of betting. Now, I don't do this as a living, but something small to satisfy the degenerate in me...

The scope of games you even consider betting has to be limited down. I'm more comfortable from -125 to +125... Last year: over 30% of my underdog action was over +125, and over 38% of my favorite action was over -125. Definitely some ways to cut back there.

I'm also going to limit myself to three games a day. I wish someone else would hold me accountable to this, but I still have troubles with playing too many games on some days - especially if I'm home on a lazy day and "just want some action." I think the key here is to look for ways to cut back your action, not increase it.

Franchise, I think you make a great point about the ballparks playing a role. I definitely have to use that. Know of anywhere you find those sort of stats? I remember reading somewhere that when the Yanks were winning at home last year, they were covering the run-line. In fact, I was going to grab my record as some sort of statistic, only to find I didn't bet their run-line once last year (0-4 on all Yankee bets; 7-7 fading them)!

I wonder if I'm blowing smoke, do you think the books put more weight on a pitcher slumping but his team doing well or the team slumping and the pitcher doing well? Maybe something to look at as well. Like, when Greinke had a great year he was a favorite, but Royals rarely did him a favor.

Totals are the most fun aspect I think. Nothing like rooting for anemic offenses and bad pitchers!!

Let's keep a dialog throughout the year! I'm going to try to post more reasoning this upcoming year on my plays.

[Woody12]

Good stuff guys. I think one of the key points is limiting the action. I too, play too many games and in the long run that will hurt you as I usually jump out to a good start but come the all-star break, its like I never played a game bc I amback to even after being stupid. Money magagement is key.

Plus dog betting. I am going to try to focus on dogs a lot more and stay away from favs 90% of ther time.

Also, isolating good and bad bullpens is a key. I found all the bad ones last year for sure that busted a ton of unders for me late.


Also, a question??

Early on, is there a batter over pitcher egde or vice-versa? Generally....? Maybe nothing to significant but I remember reading something on in the early going. Probably in the colder cities, the pitchers may have an edge as in late season games and unders may be the way to go.

[Q-Unit]

Originally Posted by Franchise

And remember, it's always smart to bet against Josh Beckett.

[Q-Unit]

how about umpires?

not saying they should be a main factor, but does anyone consider their stats.

it's not a stretch to say some umps have huge strike zones and others smaller, and that translates def. into the o/u

[akatdrake]

Anyone know where we can get Umpire stats??

[Jerbeek]

Here is a system I am thinking about tracking this year, has anyone heard of it?

1. Start with all dogs +150 or less
2. Eliminate if the dog has lost 3 or more straight or if the favorite has won 3 or more straight.
3. Eliminate if the favorite has a starting pitcher that is ranked in the top 20 of his league (per Sagarin rankings)

[Q-Unit]

Originally Posted by akatdrake

Anyone know where we can get Umpire stats??

I think covers would have something

[Q-Unit]

Originally Posted by Jerbeek

Here is a system I am thinking about tracking this year, has anyone heard of it?

1. Start with all dogs +150 or less
2. Eliminate if the dog has lost 3 or more straight or if the favorite has won 3 or more straight.
3. Eliminate if the favorite has a starting pitcher that is ranked in the top 20 of his league (per Sagarin rankings)

I have not heard of that one, but it sounds simple to implement (I'm already sold on that aspect! lmao)

- know of any consistent ROIs on this criteria jerbeek?

[akatdrake]

Yeah that system has been pretty solid the last few seasons, nothing spectacular though. There's an in-depth article on Vegas Insider if you just search MLB Underdog Betting System. It also has some criteria for unders.

Not too many plays on first and second starters but lots on three, four, and number-five starters.

Jerbeek - I'm going to track small faves and underdogs this year, it'd be great if you could track that as well!

[Jerbeek]

Yeah, Vegas Insider is where I saw it. I might try to track it but will probably wait a few weeks before I start.

[Horfin]

I look at baseball two ways:

1) dog-chase is a guaranteed money-maker in MLB. You just have to be very careful. I made money every year off a dog-chase system. You just have to play 1/4 or 1/8 units on it and it is fun becuase you will win no matter what. I'm going to start this soon in a new variation.

2) Regular MLB plays - I agree 3 to 5 plays a day has to be the limit; I used to try to bet every single game and there is no way you can know enough to do that ... that is a recipe for disaster. I suck at totals. I threw in the towel a long time ago with totals. Also, I'm the dufus still playing faves at -210 and Dogs at +250. In my opinion SP is way overrated and people get too hung up on it, the bullpen and batting is where games are won and lost, you capp that right and you will do well, if a SP goes 9 innnings and wins, chalk it up as a loss, and move on.. I have been a reds fan for too long to know that SP does not matter as much as people put the weight on it. Sure if you only bet NYY and BOS games, then it is important but there are the rest of the league where it is not that important. Take Grienke last year...hell of a pitcher, can't win..no run support. I agree with the other post...I don't go for the special plays...I stick solely to ML plays.

[BTB]

This is my first time on the site and this thread has been very good so far so I will throw my 2 cents out there. I think the biggest thing as stated a couple post prior is the AMOUNT of plays made? You talk to any prof poker player and ask them what there advice to an amature would be and they almost always say dont play so manyn hands. Also stated prev there are a lot of lines the can get screwed up on a daily basis bc of the amount of action in MLB but you cancel that out when you play 5-7 games a night bc then you have opened yourself up to making more mistakes? So with that being said I like 1-3 plays a night bc 2-1 is always a profitable night if you are playing any kind of bankroll and if you hit an early game BIG then call it quits and double it up tomorrow!

As always GOODLUCK TO EVERYONE! AND BEAT THE BOOKS!