MLB Friday 5/11

[Stifler's Mom]

ytd 133-154 (-34.75 units)

Moving right on along after that Halladay gem last night....

Washington Nationals +105

Seems the oddsmakers are catching up to how good Hill is, although he can still be had as a home dog. Nats really aren't worth backing with anyone else pitching right now....and soon they won't be worth backing at all if Hill starts to get favorite lines like he should, despite being on a bad team.

Philadelphia Phillies -115

If anyone has ever seen some of the Flubs try to hit a lefty, then they would understand why I'm making this play. Jacque Jones is the absolute most humerous. If he plays tonight, I can only imagine the wild hacks he'll take against Hamels change up, lol. Fading the Flubs against a lefty worked great yesterday at a huge dog price, and probably should have worked the day before had the dumbass Pirates not been shut out and lost to them 1-0. Phils may not be the best against lefties, but I doubt they get shut out either, and normally it doesn't take much to beat the Flubs in a game where they're facing a lefty.

LA Dodgers -124

I have a hard time figuring this line out. I would think it was a trap, but the public is on the Reds (like usual). They don't hit lefties well either, and the Dodgers are the far better overall team. For comparison purposes, the Reds are 15-20 and sitting in the cellar of their division. KC is 11-24, which isn't a whole lot worse, and everyone piles on about how much KC sucks....which may be true....but then they bet a team like the Reds who isn't much better, and don't even get a halfway decent line to do so. Seriously, Pittsburgh is even better at 15-18, and what would this line be if the Pirates were in LA tonight? +170? +180? Just goes to show....put a few big name bats in a line up, combined with an average pitcher who had one good run the season before, and you get bull**** lines forever. This should be LAD -150 or more....

NY Yankees -117

Unlike the Flubs and Reds, the Yanks hit lefties hard. This is a small price to pay to get all those Yankee bats against a lefty IMO, and Rasner actually has better numbers than Washbum, which surprised me a bit. The Yanks pen only seems to be a real disadvantage when their starting pitcher gets knocked around early, so hopefully that doesn't happen tonight. The thing that gets me about this one, is that if it was someone like Mussina or Pettitte pitching for NYY, the line would be like -180, yet Rasner has numbers that are just as good or better either of those guys. It's amazing how people just bet names and reputations.

2 units each

Will probably add a few more yet....but these 4 really stood out so I got them in already.

[Stifler's Mom]

Pittsburgh Pirates +100

Going with the line move in this one, despite not being a big fan of Duke. The Pirates have gone from a dog to a fave everywhere but SIA at this point, despite the public being strongly on the Braves. Grabbed the last dog line I saw for the Pirates.

Baltimore Orioles +170

I was debating on this one, and decided it was worth a shot to go against a career reliever at +170. I saw Burres pitch against Cleveland, and although he hot hammered, he seemed to have decent stuff. Maybe I'm taking a blind stab here and this Burres guy will get knocked all over Fenway, but I do dumb **** like that sometimes.

KC Royals RL +1.5 -110

Seeings as how poorly the White Sox hit lefties (or basically anyone right now), and how many close games they seem to play, I figure it's pretty good value to get KC +1.5 runs at only -110, especially on the road where the White Sox won't even bat in the 9th if they're ahead by 1.

Detroit Tigers RL +1.5 -120

The Tigers just win when Maroth pitches. This line IMO is REALLY BAD, but rather than go for the big payout, I'm going to try the RL because I think this will be a close game, and probably low scoring. Santana hasn't really been that great this season either, and he has always been prone to giving up the long ball, even when he was at his most dominant since he's primarily a flyball or strike out pitcher. That's what the Tigers do best, and another situation where the Tigers could conceivably get one more AB than Minnesota and an extra chance to cash the +1.5 RL.

2 units each

I don't like these last 4 as much as the first 4, but I decided I saw value in them, although that normally turns out to be a bad thing in baseball, judging from last year and so far this season.