May 14th bases with flmmkrz

[flmmkrz]

Got a late jump on the games today so I'm still looking over a bunch of them. Locked in the early one...

Angels - 108 to win 1 unit

Bettors seem to be off the Jered Weaver train this year with reason he hasn't gotten back to his form of last year as yet. His era is a bit infalted due to one poor outing otherwise his return hasn't been nearly as bad as his numbers indicate. His career numbers vs texas are solid, they got to him good once last year but in a quick turnaround game that saw him facing the same line up in a less than 2 week span which is favorable for the bats. There aren't a lot of at bat experience vs Millwood in the Angels line up but 2 of the batters in the line up that have more than 20 at bats in Vlad and Cabrera have had good success vs him. Also off injury if Millwood doesn't go deep he doesn't his pen has been worked hard this series so he may be asked to go a little deeper than he would be if the pens got rested the last few games. Lefties have been hitting Millwood well again this year and while the Angels are missing a key lefty bat in Anderson they can still send 5 lefties at him and none of those 5 are Vlad and Cabrera the 2 players who have has prior success vs him. Millwood has also had a terrible era pitching at ameriquest. Angels are a streaky line up and despite the loss yesterday they are hitting right now and they have the better pitcher on the mound for close to evens. Plenty of value here.

[Silver & Black]

right there with you flmmkrz

[flmmkrz]

thx S&B, great week last week for ya, way to go !!

[flmmkrz]

Line with hotlanta dropping, heading into value land will be watching it closely.

[joepa66]

GL today FilmGuy!

[flmmkrz]

Marlins + 116 x 1 unit

Another good young pitcher not getting a whole lot of love from bettors right now after a string of poor starts but I will gladly take the proven Dtrain @ + odds in this match up. The numbers don't lie he's been stellas vs the bucs thru his career. The pirates are hitting a paltry .243 off lefties this season and the numbers don't get better at home for them. Willis has shown himself to be a better road pitcher than home pitcher thru his career and his numbers this year in the 2 are quite drastic and this match up thats suited him well might be what he needs to get going. Gorzelanny has had a great season thus far but I think that bettors are quite aware of him now and it's pushing the line more than it should. He has been a better road pitcher as well with an era a full point higher at home than it is on the road. The fish have limited at bats vs him but are hitting lefties well this year and are a more productive road hitting line up. The bats and pitching have both gone cold for the fish as of late otherwise this ones a pick em at best maybe even home dog for the bucs but its created value on the fish for me.

[flmmkrz]

Phillies - 116 to win 1 unit

Howards a big loss but I think the linesmakers took that well into account when putting this line at what it opened at. Minus a masterful performance by Lily the phils bats have been hot and they face the makings of a very good match up for them. Bush isn't particularily tough on lefty or righties tho statistically he's been an easier match up for lefties while he's getting hit more by right handed bats this year. His era is a full point higher on the road than it is at home, he's a full point higher during night games vs day games, May is historically his worst month, his era vs the phils is over 6 and his one showing at citizen saw him get hit around. Meanwhile the phils are hitting right handeders at .277 clip and are better at home than on the road. Moyer is a favorable match up as well, the brew are a young line up that is prone to chasing and Moyer will be throwing garbage at them all day trying to entice them to chase. He's been spotless at home this season and traditionally is a strong home pitcher. Also doesn't hurt that the brewers bats are less potent on the road.

[flmmkrz]

and last remaining play I dont have time to do a write up for

Cubs + 137 x 1 unit

GL Everyone

[flmmkrz]

still watching the atlanta line and if Baltimore can fall to -120 I can find enough value to lock it in as well.

[flmmkrz]

no more line movement on Baltimore so it's a non play for me but added:

Atlanta - 160 to win 1 unit

[flmmkrz]

Disappointing day !!

Smoltz pitches a gem and Bergmann outpitches him.
Dtrain wasn't horrible tho his pen was not that it mattered Gorzelanny 7 inning shut out performance
Cubbies were the pisser for the day, up 4-0 and they go cubby with it.

UGH

today:

2-3 , -1.6 units