May 16th bases with flmmkrz

[flmmkrz]

Back on the good side yesterday after a down day tuesday, hoping to build on yesterday...

here's what I like:

Philly - 131 to win 1 unit

I know at some point the loss of Howards supposed to hurt these guys but this ones another favorable match up imo. The brew crew are a talented line up but a young and rather impatient line up, Hamels is a stud and will have them chasing outside the zone all game long. Having little experience vs him should give Hamels the edge in the game early. Suppans had a great start but was the recipient of a lot of favorable match ups against teams that would chase his stuff, the phils are a fairly disciplined team at the plate and have guys thru the line up with prior success vs Suppan.

Cubbies + 115 x 1 unit , 1st 5 innings

This ones a tough call to make with the way the mets are destroying lefties but this lefty is as tough to hit as some of the best lefties out there right now. Sosa has had a nice start but his history has shown it's not a pace he can maintain and the cubbies are hitting right handed pitching well and are a more potent line up on the road. With Hill having little prior experience vs the mets he should have the edge the first time thru the line up, as should Sosa but I feel Hills better stuff will lead to a better result the first time thru. I dont have much faith in the cubbies to hold a lead but taking a lead given the pitching edge should be achievable and at this price for the better pitcher is value.

Rangers - 104 to win 1 unit

Fossums definitely better at home than on the road where he's just brutal but the rangers like to face left handed pitching and with Fossum struggling against lefty bats this season the match up becomes that much better for the rangers. Padillas never an easy back but he's gotten progressivly better as the seasons gone on and as a pitcher who struggles against left handed bats, he gets a line up featuring only 2 lefties.

Seattle + 127 x 1 unit

The easy play is backing Lackey here as he's the bigger name and having a good year but the numbers don't lie he's got a lifetimes of almost 5 vs the M's have a line up that is littered with guys who have hit him well consistantly over an extended period. Baeks numbers vs the angels are a bit dated as it was one outing in 04, he's a more experienced pitcher this trip up and is capable of a solid performance against a line up that is not nearly as strong on the road and missing one of their better lefty bats which is what Baek is having trouble with. Baeks limited prior experience should also provide an early edge. Too much value to not jump on this.

Giants/stros U 9 - 109 to win 1 unit

outta time. sorry

GL everyone

[flmmkrz]

Originally Posted by flmmkrz

Back on the good side yesterday after a down day tuesday, hoping to build on yesterday...

here's what I like:

Philly - 131 to win 1 unit WIN + 1 unit

I know at some point the loss of Howards supposed to hurt these guys but this ones another favorable match up imo. The brew crew are a talented line up but a young and rather impatient line up, Hamels is a stud and will have them chasing outside the zone all game long. Having little experience vs him should give Hamels the edge in the game early. Suppans had a great start but was the recipient of a lot of favorable match ups against teams that would chase his stuff, the phils are a fairly disciplined team at the plate and have guys thru the line up with prior success vs Suppan.

Cubbies + 115 x 1 unit , 1st 5 innings LOST - 1 unit

This ones a tough call to make with the way the mets are destroying lefties but this lefty is as tough to hit as some of the best lefties out there right now. Sosa has had a nice start but his history has shown it's not a pace he can maintain and the cubbies are hitting right handed pitching well and are a more potent line up on the road. With Hill having little prior experience vs the mets he should have the edge the first time thru the line up, as should Sosa but I feel Hills better stuff will lead to a better result the first time thru. I dont have much faith in the cubbies to hold a lead but taking a lead given the pitching edge should be achievable and at this price for the better pitcher is value.

Rangers - 104 to win 1 unit LOST - 1.04 units

Fossums definitely better at home than on the road where he's just brutal but the rangers like to face left handed pitching and with Fossum struggling against lefty bats this season the match up becomes that much better for the rangers. Padillas never an easy back but he's gotten progressivly better as the seasons gone on and as a pitcher who struggles against left handed bats, he gets a line up featuring only 2 lefties.

Seattle + 127 x 1 unit LOST - 1 unit

The easy play is backing Lackey here as he's the bigger name and having a good year but the numbers don't lie he's got a lifetimes of almost 5 vs the M's have a line up that is littered with guys who have hit him well consistantly over an extended period. Baeks numbers vs the angels are a bit dated as it was one outing in 04, he's a more experienced pitcher this trip up and is capable of a solid performance against a line up that is not nearly as strong on the road and missing one of their better lefty bats which is what Baek is having trouble with. Baeks limited prior experience should also provide an early edge. Too much value to not jump on this.

Giants/stros U 9 - 109 to win 1 unit WIN + 1 unit

outta time. sorry

GL everyone

and a down day UGH. Seem to be alternating up days with down days at the moment. I'm off to a wedding tommorrow and over the long weekend so wont be making any plays till I come back. GL over the weekend everyone.

today 2-3 , - 1.04 units