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Florida - 118 to win 1 unit
Dtrain hasn't had a great season so far especially at homebut he's been a solid home pitcher thru the years and he's been pitching better his last couple outings, a trend I expect to continue. He's pitched the phils well thru his career. Willis struggles with righ handed bats an area the phils aren't very strong, and they are batting a paltry .240 off lefties this year. meanwhile Liebers history has shown him to struggle vs the fish, their line up is full of guys who have hit him fairly well thru the years, he's got an era approaching 5 against them lifetime, has been worse on the road than in his own yard historically and has struggled in the fishes stadium with an era coming up on 6 lifetime. We don't really need to get into the phils bullpen probs do we? |
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Braves - 130 to win 1 unit
Both pitchers have faced the other teams bats twice already this season so the edge is with the batters in this match up. Braves are hitting lefties better than the mets are hitting rhp'ing. I believe Smoltz has better stuff that can keep the mets guessing longer. Doesn't hurt that seemingly every big brave bat has had at least a decent amount of success vs glavine. Glavine also hasn't been the same pitcher on the road that he has at home the last few years. |
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Dback - 108 to win 1 unit
Not much write up here, Wandy hasn't been a great start anywhere but definitely not on the road this year even against a mediocre line up like the dbacks. Owings has got good stuff and like most young pitchers he has shown to be better at home. The stros are batting .234 vs rhp'ers this year. Wandy is the more hittable pitcher in this one to me so to fade him for close to evens is value. |
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Seattle -114 to win 1 unit
Of my little fade pitcher list nobody is sitting higher than Seo. Ramirez may not be great but he is at least a mlb calibre pitcher, you can't say that about Seo the way he's going this year. Seo does have a good history vs the M's but this year he doesn't seem to have the stuff to hold anybody down. Better pitcher, better line up, better pen and for - 114, had to take it. |
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Tribe - 125 to win 1 unit
Based on pitching alone I should be on kc as Sowers hasn't been good for a while and De La Rosa at home has been very good but getting as talented a line up at the tribe puts out for this price is full of value. This is still kc, they are batting .254 vs lefties and Sowers should be able to get them to chase as they aren't terribly disciplined at the plate. At this price i'll gladly take my chances that the tribe bats wake up. The tribe burned me yesterday but if the books want to keep giving them to me at these prices i'll keep taking them. |
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added one more play as the money is coming in on the other side pushing this to a solid value play for me.
Cubbies + 137 x 1 unit Youngs having a great may but this guy has been a stand out road pitcher that falters at home thru his career and until he proves to me that this isn't just a hot streak I don't mind going against him at home. Marquis has has a couple rough outings but is a solid road pitcher and pitching in a pitcher friendly park makes the pitching a push for me, which leaves it to which side can get the runs and I like the cubby line up more in this one. I have the pads as faves but around -120 ish, at -145 the value is on the other side for me. |
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hey flm, you absolutely crushed it today. i tailed you on a majority of your plays and creamed my # and went from red to black. You and udogg really had an impressive day.
just wanted to say thanks. sham.........
__________________
___________ CFB: 25-28-1 (+3) NFL: 14-12 (+7.75) CBB: 07-08: 54-43(+11.25) RD 3-1 |
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