May 26th bases with flmmkrz...

[flmmkrz]

Got a bit unlucky yesterday. Found value in all my plays but 3 of them were heavier on the chalk than the others, won more than I lost but the chalk made it a losing day. No big chalk in the card today so time to get back to the good side...

Cubbies -108 to win 1 unit

Hendricksons had a nice start to the season but he's shown signs of coming back to the pack over his last few games. Regardless, Z is the better pitcher in this match up and his history vs the dodgers is spotless with a lifetime 1.74 era vs them. Z has been having his troubles vs lefty bats and this dodgers line up is short on lefty talent with Gonzo, Furcal and Pierre their lefty threats. Furcal and Pierre have had virtually no success vs Z while gonzo has had a few hits off him but hasn't done any major damage. He's controlled Kent and Nomar is yet to face him. Hendrickson has traditionally faired poorly at home and during day games something he faces today. He'll have the advantage of not having faced the cubbies yet but the cubs are talented enough to get their runs here. At this price lots of value.

Atlanta - 102 to win 1 unit

The question here is, is Eaton putting it together or did he just run into a couple of cold teams in the brew and jays in his last starts. I'm betting the latter. I would love the play more if Chipper was in which I don't think he is but the braves bats in limited action have hit Eaton, almost the entire line up. Carlyle is a question mark but he has been very effective at richmond and should have the edge at least in early going. Late going it could get dicey as the phils bats are disciplined and tough but at this price the value for me is on the braves.

SF - 133 to win 1 unit

Cook got the best of the giants the last time he faced them this year but he continued to be hit by the giants, a team he's struggled with thru his career with a lifetime over 5. The rhp match up is one the giants prefer and up and down the line up the giants have guys who have hit Cook well in the past like Bonds, Durham, Klesko, Vizquel. The rox are not a great road hitting team and if Morris can keep Helton and Holliday from hurting him the rest of the line up has either had little success or aren't big threats. Barmes is in the minors and he ate Morris alive so that's a +. I'm not reading too much into last nights win as it was a game the giants should've won, they're the better team here again and they are again under priced imo.

Am finishing the write ups for the rest

[Benrik]

Nice season you've got going. Good luck today!

[flmmkrz]

Brew Crew + 114 x 1 unit

Theres a love on for Germano these days and bettors seem to love the new hot pitchers. So far he's faced 3 line ups all who are very hot and cold but this brew line up will be his toughest test yet. He could very well face it and succeed but his line up is still batting a pathetic .234 against right handers while Vargas minus his last start has been a very solid right hander this season. I believe Germano can be hit and I'm not so sure the padres can hit. At this price gimme the better overall team at + money. Doesn't hurt that Vargas has been a better road pitcher thru his career.

Bosox - 125 to win 1 unit

Wakes lifetime vs the rangers is pathetic and I know it but until the rangers can prove to me that their bats are alive I have no problems fading them even when the stats say there could be some trouble ahead. I'm not really sure where Wakes inflated numbers come from as Wilkerson and Cattalano are the only guys who seem to be able to him with any regularity. With the rangers bats struggling they have a tendancy to chase even more and against wakefield thats a recipe for failure as he'll have you chase junk all game. Padilla is really hit or miss but lefties are crushing him and while the sox don't have many they have a couple that have hit Padilla well. Cora,Crisp, Ortiz and Drew all hit him comfortably. They have enough other talent that if he's off they should be able to run up the score easily. Better team, better pitcher and a line I see plenty of value in.

Tigers - 104 to win 1 unit

Verlander at home for evens. May not see it again this year so it was a no brainer to jump on it. Verlanders career numbers look off vs the tribe but really it was one bad game that has inflated his numbers otherwise his numbers vs them are solid. The tribe aren't as prolific on offence on the road as they are at home. The tigers are hitting lefties tough this year and are a strong home team. The tigers as a unit haven't done a lot of damage vs CC but thru the line up they have guys who have hit him decently well. If they make him work thru the line up the tribe bullpen should come into play and it's not a talented pen.

Seattle -120 to win 1 unit

The kc love is still going strong. Bannister has been decent this year but in a second go around with the M's he should find himself in tough vs a line up that is fairly deep. He's not a great home pitcher as his history shows, an era over 5 lifetime. He also struggles against lefties and the M's can throw 4 solid ones at him. The M's hit well on the road and hit right handed pitching very well. I'm not thrilled with backing Baek but with an anemic KC offence against him I'm not as worried. Doesn't hurt that Sander their best rhp hitter is out of commission. Better line up for the M's, better pen for the m's, and the starting pitching is a wash. As long as the public loves the royals I'll gladly fade them cheaply.

and I gotta take my dog out so I am just gonna list my remaining plays with no write ups.

Jays + 125 x 1 unit
A's - 113 to win 1 unit

GL Everyone

[flmmkrz]

[flmmkrz]

Bought out my Braves play, my numbers tell me there is value but the unknown factor of Carlyles step up in class is saying it's easier to stay away from this one.

[flmmkrz]

got rid of one and replacing it...

Liked Maine and the mets since the line came out but was watching line movement to see if I could maybe get it cheaper but doesn't seem like it's going to happen.

Mets -138 to win 1 unit

[FlyersFan]

flmmrz- what's your strongest play remaining?....need something to put with a softball play...thx

[flmmkrz]

tough call ff, they all got things I like other things I don't. Gun to my head I'd say the M's.

[flmmkrz]

today:

Mets + 1 unit A's - 1.13 units
Jays + 1.25 units Tigers - 1.04 units
Seattle + 1 unit Brew - 1 unit
BoSox + 1 unit SF - 1.33 units
Cubs + 1 unit

5.25 - 4.5 = + .75 units

5-4 , +.75 units

not a great day but at least it's + money

oops, sorry I didn't know it would come out formatted the way it did above