May 28th bases with flmmkrz

[flmmkrz]

A slightly down weekend as it was one of those weekends where everything seemed to go wrong but after that kinda weekend to be be down under less than a unit I'm fine with it. But on to some winning:

Rox - 137 to win 1 unit

This one is just a favorable match up. Francis is a lefty, the cards aren't hitting lefties well, or anybody for that matter. The cards aren't a good road hitting team, and its a day game and they hit just as poorly during the day as they do at night while Francis is strong at home and pitches better in day games. Rox bats are hitting right now and they're stronger vs rhp'ing and even more so at home. They've hit quite a bit better during day games as well. Wells is having troubles with right handed bats this season but traditionally he's bad vs lefties, the rox have a solid blend of both. Wells isn't a strong road pitcher and his only start at coors was a disaster. He's also not at his best in day games. There aren't a lot of at bats vs wells but the line up is full of guys who have hit him including Holliday who is 7 for 10. Meanwhile aside from Pujols 3 for 7, none of the other big bats have any success vs Francis. and did I mention he's a good canadian kid from vancouver, no relevance cept Igotta root for the homegrown kids when I can.

Yanks -135 to win 2 units

I got burned on them today but they are too talented a line up to keep underachieving this badly and while I can get them at this price I will gladly take the value. Jays are brutal vs rhp'ing and they are stronger away from their yard. DeSalvo hasn't been great out of the pen but his 2 starts were solid against a tough seattle line up in the span of a week. His main problem seems to be lefties and the jays don't have a lot of talent on the left side of the plate. McGowans had his struggles this season as well but he seems more likely to struggle vs patient teams and the yanks have a lot of talent that'll make him work for outs. LH bats are his tough outs and the yanks can throw 3 solid ones at him and Mientkiewicz who licks. Yanks are very good vs rhp'ing and are a good road hitting team. McGowans faced the yanks a few times in relief appearances and had little success. The yanks have a slightly worse bullpen but both aren't good pens so no major edge. For the bats alone the value is with the yanks, hopefully DeSalvo can keep from imploding.

Baltimore -118 to win 2 units

Trachsels numbers vs kc look horid on first glance but digging a bit, his last game vs them was great and before that he hadn't pitched vs kc since 2000. I don't remember who the hell they had back then but it's not the same team now. Trachsel may not be much but he is a smart vet and has solid control which against a young undisciplined kc squad means some easy outs if he's even half on. On the other side, Elarton blows. He's a bad home pitcher who is worse in night games. Right handed bats are feasting on him and the O's can throw at least 4 solid ones at him and have the option to dress a couple more if need be. Not many of the bats for the O's have had much at bats vs him but of those who have had at least 10 at bats, all have good numbers and Huff at 8 at bats is a monster against him. Elarton isn't exactly a workhorse so the kc bullpen will come into play more than likely and they are a sad lot. Better pitcher, better line up, better pen and all for -118. It's a bargain :P

watching a few lines for movement still tho. Marlins, Rangers and M's mainly, hopefully the public jumps on the other sides and gives them some more value. They are underpriced imo but not enough for me to pull the trigger as yet.

GL everyone

[flmmkrz]

Few more additions...

Tigers line wasn't out last night but opened at -150 and I was tempted to get on the drays if the line could hit -155+ but the line went the other way so I know find value on the tigers.

Tigers - 136 to win 1 unit

Durbin isn't a great road pitcher but Jacksons not any better at home. The tigers line up is better vs right handed pitching and get the easier match up imo. With the tigers bullpen woes this one could stay close but in the end the value at this price is with the better team and the better pitcher.

M's line moved quickly as well so jumped on it while I could

Seattle + 145 x 1 unit

As is the case with value plays I don't always believe my team will win but they should be priced better than they are and that is the case here. M's bats are red hot, granted kc will do that for you, but nonetheless confidence is a great thing for an athlete and the M's are confident right now. This is going to be Colons third time up against this M's line up and 2nd time within 2 weeks. That edge can only help the M's, and while his career numbers vs the M's are solid the M's have hit him. Historically Colons been better on the road and the M's are amongst the best in the league on the road, they are hitting rh'ers well and are putting up huge numbers in night games. The M's line up is full of guys who have very good numbers vs him. Batistas no Colon, But where Batistas struggled has been vs left handed bats, an area the Angels aren't strong and he's been more effective on the road thru his career. As far as spots go this would be one of the better spots to back Batista. Not having Anderson a tough lefty in the line up also gives Miggy a chance to pitch around Vladdy daddy which should make life easier for him.

Rangers + 143 x 1 unit

Jumped back into value land. Tough not to take Tejeda and the rangers here, he's pitched the A's well in the past, still not having lost to them in 3 games. Tejeda struggles with lefties, and the A's while they have a few guys who can swing as lefties, Swisher and Johnson are about the only threats with the way the others are swinging right now, yet in limited bats Swish hasn't done much vs him tho Johnsons hit him well. Tejedas been tough on the road thru his career and seems to enjoy night games. Vs rh the A's are hitting .252, but only .233 at home and they've been a little more effective during day games over night games. Gaudin has been very good this year but like Oswalt yesterday I think he may have to win this game on his own as the bats aren't going to do a lot for him. At this price I'll take my shot that they don't help him enough. As for Gaudin, Leftys are hitting him, they have a couple guys who can swing from that side but tex who is one of them is better off the other side. Blalocks loss hurts them in this one. The rangers have had limited at bats vs him and they haven't been overly successful aside from the not playing Blalock but they have hit him and the talent is there. Statistically the rangers dont hit rh'ers well, don't hit well outside their yard and aren't great at night games so it's not the safest bet by any means but in a game I see as being able to go either way I will take this price.

[flmmkrz]

oops forgot to add one:

Fish + 152 x 1 unit

Can't believe I'm with Kim on this one but here I am. I believe that the cubs are the favorites in this one no question but at this price???? no way. Kim as bad as he can be is very tough on right handed bats and the line up is full of rh bats. The few lefties they do have aren't dangerous lefties. Marshall for his part has only has one good start this year and isn't proven enough to warrant this price. The fish have hit him in the past and are better on the road vs lefties which is what this match up is. Would it surprise me if the cubs won, nope, would it surprise me if the fish won, nope. Just cause its a home game I would have set the line at -120ish but this price is way too much for a cubs team that hasn't been very good all year long.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

"value"

LOL...GL...I like a lot of the same games....

[snowphoto]

I dig em all. Enjoy the write-ups. GL today

[Low]

GL to you too...
Must admit i did stop by to read your write ups.I too enjoy them.....helped me make a few decisions.thanx for the info

[flmmkrz]

If the 4 pst time look like they are going well I am going to add to the rangers game. I was hoping to get the rangers at this price but the line looked like it was prime to move against me so I bit but it's a lofty + 156 right now. If the 4 games look break evenish or down i'll just let it play out but if the profit looks pending I'll take on a piece at that price +.

[flmmkrz]

no added play on the rangers, price is right but the yanks are stinking up the joint so don't wanna throw any profit thats in hand away possibly

[vazman05]

i dont know why im retarded enough to bet on the yanks....mcgowan was 0-6 with like a 11 era in his last 7 starts, and the yanks make him look like the next coming of roy halladay, what a embarassment of riches

[flmmkrz]

Originally Posted by vazman05

i dont know why im retarded enough to bet on the yanks....mcgowan was 0-6 with like a 11 era in his last 7 starts, and the yanks make him look like the next coming of roy halladay, what a embarassment of riches

dont sweat it bro, from a value stand point it was the bet to make. If it were the same 2 guys going tomorrow at same prices i'd make the same play. Kid pitched a good game and the yanks are brutal. I'm more annoyed with the tigers today, had the lead and bullpen flames out again. Those ones suck.

[flmmkrz]

Fish + 1.52 units
Rangers - 1 unit
M's + 1.45 units
Tigers - 1.36 units
Rox + 1
O's + 2
Yanks -2.7

total

4-3, + .91 units

well make that down a lil, up a lil, down a lil, up a lil

the stupid trend continues thanks to a 9th inning flame out from Todd Jones.

still better up a lil than the alternative right.

[Daddy Diego]

Todd Jones blew my perfect nite. Bastard.