May 29th bases with flmmkrz

[flmmkrz]

Don't know if I'll have a lot of time tomorrow to post so sharing some of what I've locked in and some of what I'll be watching

Mets - 142 to win 2 units (locked in)

The giants have always found a way to get to Perez, it's not a case of the giants line up as a whole having success but a couple players find their game that day and next thing you know its a loss for Perez. I'm not sold on this particular version of the giants line up to come up big against him again. He's been far too solid all year and this giants line up is undertalented. As a team they're hitting .244 off lefties and this lefty has a lifetime era of 2.84 at Shea. If there's a time to break the 0fer slump it's at Shea. Perez is a little more vulnerable to lefty bats but aside from Bonds and Durham the talent on the left side is weak, and Bonds is 1 for 9 vs him. He's been spotless vs right handed bats this season. Lincecum is starting against him and while he's looked good over his last few starts this is a big step up in class from houston who are pretty feeble vs right handed pitching and the rox who are streaky and not overly impressive vs rhp'ing themselves. Lincecum has been tough on right handed batting but the phils threw lefties at him and they rattled him, vs houston and the rox most of the hits by lefty bats. The mets are as patient a team as there is so they're not going to let him nibble and they are a very good home hitting team. They aren't as potent hitting rh'ers as they are hitting lefties but having Delgado finally awake should improve those numbers. Lincecum will have to get thru Green, Beltran, Delgado, Reyes and Chavez who all bat from the left side. This youngster is good and will get better but this is a tough line up to get thru for most veteran aces, the kid should be overmatched. Rarely will you find the mets at home against a team as bad as the giants at this price and it's in large part to Perezs record vs the giants and Lincecums record coming, both factors I think will be irrelevant in this game so they get me a better price, I had one bargain today and this one has the earmarks of being one as well.


Braves + 107 x 1 unit (locked in)

Smoltz @ + odds is usually value and I find it to be here again. Smoltz has been very good thru the years vs the brew crew, granted he hasn't faced this new version very much but most of them haven't done much in the limited action. Counsell owns him but if that's the biggest worry in this play I'll take that. The brews bats have slowed in the last couple weeks, and as agressive as they are at the plate facing a guy with the control Smoltz has the makings of a bad outing. Smoltz is historically a good road start and has been solid at Miller park. The brew are hitting .258 off rhp'ing at the moment, a number that got built playing some weaker competition to start the season. Sheets is starting for the brewers. The Braves numbers vs rhp'ing isn't great either hitting .263 but they are a good road hitting team and have a line up full of guys who have hit sheets. Sheets has always been a better home start than he is on the road but he's far more hittable than Smoltz is. Gimme the + odds on the guy with 200 wins.

Chisox + 121 x 1 unit (watching)

I'll be watching this line to see if I can get it better than this price as more people are coming in on Minny so far. This one just boils down to a good match up for the chisox. Danks is a lefty that is gd vs lefty hitting and prone to right handed bats, he's proven to be a good road starter and has good lifetime numbers vs the twinkies. Twinks are hitting an anemic .247 off lefties and hit worse at home than they do on the road. As far as rh talent aside from Hunter who is pulling an 0fer, Cuddyers your only other rh'ed threat but he's hot at the moment. Meanwhile Bonser is getting hit well by lefties and is a better road starter than home starter. The sox don't have a lot of talent off the left side but Erstads having a good yr and Thome is always a threat. The sox aren't strong vs rhp'ing but compared to their numbers vs leftys their only chance to win is vs right handers. The chisox have shown an ability to hit Bonser in the past. I just hope Danks can go his usual 6 cause the sox pen is a mess. The value is with the sox imo.

Rangers + 142 x 1 unit (locked in)

Im sleepy so no real write up here, this ones all about value. Dinardo isn't good enough to warrant a line of -150. The A's line up isn't strong enough to warrant that line. A's as slight favorites but at + 142 it's begging to be taken.
Doesn't mean it'll win but it is value.

GL everyone

[joepa66]

GL Filmmaker...love the Mets....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

GL, Value!

[flmmkrz]

ended up locking in the sox at + 121 x 1 unit

[flmmkrz]

Originally Posted by flmmkrz

Don't know if I'll have a lot of time tomorrow to post so sharing some of what I've locked in and some of what I'll be watching

Mets - 142 to win 2 units (locked in) WIN + 2 units

The giants have always found a way to get to Perez, it's not a case of the giants line up as a whole having success but a couple players find their game that day and next thing you know its a loss for Perez. I'm not sold on this particular version of the giants line up to come up big against him again. He's been far too solid all year and this giants line up is undertalented. As a team they're hitting .244 off lefties and this lefty has a lifetime era of 2.84 at Shea. If there's a time to break the 0fer slump it's at Shea. Perez is a little more vulnerable to lefty bats but aside from Bonds and Durham the talent on the left side is weak, and Bonds is 1 for 9 vs him. He's been spotless vs right handed bats this season. Lincecum is starting against him and while he's looked good over his last few starts this is a big step up in class from houston who are pretty feeble vs right handed pitching and the rox who are streaky and not overly impressive vs rhp'ing themselves. Lincecum has been tough on right handed batting but the phils threw lefties at him and they rattled him, vs houston and the rox most of the hits by lefty bats. The mets are as patient a team as there is so they're not going to let him nibble and they are a very good home hitting team. They aren't as potent hitting rh'ers as they are hitting lefties but having Delgado finally awake should improve those numbers. Lincecum will have to get thru Green, Beltran, Delgado, Reyes and Chavez who all bat from the left side. This youngster is good and will get better but this is a tough line up to get thru for most veteran aces, the kid should be overmatched. Rarely will you find the mets at home against a team as bad as the giants at this price and it's in large part to Perezs record vs the giants and Lincecums record coming, both factors I think will be irrelevant in this game so they get me a better price, I had one bargain today and this one has the earmarks of being one as well.


Braves + 107 x 1 unit (locked in) LOSS - 1 unit

Smoltz @ + odds is usually value and I find it to be here again. Smoltz has been very good thru the years vs the brew crew, granted he hasn't faced this new version very much but most of them haven't done much in the limited action. Counsell owns him but if that's the biggest worry in this play I'll take that. The brews bats have slowed in the last couple weeks, and as agressive as they are at the plate facing a guy with the control Smoltz has the makings of a bad outing. Smoltz is historically a good road start and has been solid at Miller park. The brew are hitting .258 off rhp'ing at the moment, a number that got built playing some weaker competition to start the season. Sheets is starting for the brewers. The Braves numbers vs rhp'ing isn't great either hitting .263 but they are a good road hitting team and have a line up full of guys who have hit sheets. Sheets has always been a better home start than he is on the road but he's far more hittable than Smoltz is. Gimme the + odds on the guy with 200 wins.

Chisox + 121 x 1 unit (watching) LOSS - 1 unit

I'll be watching this line to see if I can get it better than this price as more people are coming in on Minny so far. This one just boils down to a good match up for the chisox. Danks is a lefty that is gd vs lefty hitting and prone to right handed bats, he's proven to be a good road starter and has good lifetime numbers vs the twinkies. Twinks are hitting an anemic .247 off lefties and hit worse at home than they do on the road. As far as rh talent aside from Hunter who is pulling an 0fer, Cuddyers your only other rh'ed threat but he's hot at the moment. Meanwhile Bonser is getting hit well by lefties and is a better road starter than home starter. The sox don't have a lot of talent off the left side but Erstads having a good yr and Thome is always a threat. The sox aren't strong vs rhp'ing but compared to their numbers vs leftys their only chance to win is vs right handers. The chisox have shown an ability to hit Bonser in the past. I just hope Danks can go his usual 6 cause the sox pen is a mess. The value is with the sox imo.

Rangers + 142 x 1 unit (locked in) WIN + 1.42 units

Im sleepy so no real write up here, this ones all about value. Dinardo isn't good enough to warrant a line of -150. The A's line up isn't strong enough to warrant that line. A's as slight favorites but at + 142 it's begging to be taken.
Doesn't mean it'll win but it is value.

GL everyone

2-2, + 1.42 units

+ days a good day