June 1st bases with flmmkrz

[flmmkrz]

Didnt get a chance to cap todays games so spent my time focusing for these games so hopefully it pays off...

Dbacks + 123 x 1 unit

At face value the mets seem the value play with Maine but digging a bit there's a lot I liked about the dbacks coming into this one. One they're hot, young team riding momentum is a good combo. 2, Webbs career numbers vs the mets are very good, the guys he doesn't want to face from the mets, Green and Alou are both out injured. Mets numbers vs right handers isn't impressive, 2 of their best rh'ed batters are the same 2 that give Webb problems and ones I mentioned are sitting out with injury. 3, Maine doesn't look as sharp as he was earlier in the season. He's walking a lot of batters and giving up hits, when a teams as hot as the dbacks are, free bases will end up hurting. His numbers at home are also way off his impressive road numbers this season, for his careers his stats show the same trend of him being worse on the road. All in all I think im getting a more than favorable price to take the dbacks in this one.

Fish + 137 x 1 unit

This one just comes down to too large a price on the fish. Floridas a good road team and Olsen in limited action has held the brew crew in check. The brew are a fairly free swinging club and Olsen has very nice stuff when he's on. Having the brew chase him should help as he won't feel like he needs to be perfect to get outs. He's also proven to be a better road pitcher thru his career. Suppan is having a solid year but continues to be hittable and is starting to give up more walks. His numbers indicate he's been much better at home this year but his career numbers show him to only be mildly better in his own yard. The fish as a team hit him well earlier this year a trend thats been going on for a bit now. The brew crew should be favored but I don't see how they can be favored by this much, values with the fish.

Cleveland -155 to win 1 unit

Laying the chalk here but even at this price they're undervalued imo. The tribe come in with the better pitching, the better pen and the better bats. It's a quick turnaround for both these pitchers so it should come down to which pitcher will be able to limit the damage. Carmona has more talent where Maroth is very much hittable. Once it gets to pens the tigers are in trouble as their pen can't keep anything close.

Red Sox + 101 x 1 unit

Can't believe the odds got to this. I saw -114 on the bosox and I went to lock it in by then the price had changed so I just waited it out and it hit this. It just comes down to value with this play, bosox are hot, are a great home team while the yanks are ice cold. Wake struggled the last time he faced the yanks while Wang was very good, could play out the same way but in this match up in Boston I'll take the sox + odds with virtually any pitcher they have vs anything the yanks can throw at them.

waiting to see some line movement in another couple games before I could consider locking anything else in. GL everyone

[Daddy Diego]

Agree with you on the first three. Probably will be on those myself.

Never like betting the Yanks/Red Sox games... something totally unexpected usually happens when I do.


GL today flmmkrz

[joepa66]

With ya on the Tribe and Sox......GL Film Guy!

[flmmkrz]

added:

Cubbies - 163 to win 1 unit

seems like I'm fading the entire room and bettors everywhere but you couldn't ask for a better fit for the cubbies than Davies, throws a fastball in the low 90's that doesn't have a lot of movement, is prone to giving up the long ball and struggles vs rh bats.... sounds about right for a freeswinging cubby team. Word is the wind is blowing out at Wrigley so it should help a few more balls get out which favors the cubbies even more. Z's off to a slow start this season but is coming off a nice performance and hopefully looking to build on it. Of the batters who have faced z before Chipper and Renteria have had the most success. With no chipper the team does take a big hit, especially the way z's owned Andruw Jones. Francouer and Kelly Johnson also haven't had much success in limited action. If those 3 are held in check the braves are in trouble. This boils down to an ace vs a #4 or #5 starter on a team with arguably their best player out while the the team riding the ace has a favorable match up at the plate. Based on my numbers the cubbies are underpriced here and despite my not having the most trust in them I will trust my numbers yet again.

[flmmkrz]

Baltimore is really close to being a play as well. If I can get them above +195, I had them at 198 but the line moved too quickly and it changed as I was locking it in.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

GL, nucker

Like the fish and Bosox!

Can't believe you're laying that kind of wood on the flubs...they might win, but Yikes! LOL

GL...

[flmmkrz]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

GL, nucker

Like the fish and Bosox!

Can't believe you're laying that kind of wood on the flubs...they might win, but Yikes! LOL

GL...

lol, my heads thinking the same way yours is, I hate the idea of laying this much chalk on them but I do my research and come up with my own lines and if there's enough of difference I'll make it a play and I haven't strayed from betting my lines all year. So far so good, so no time to stop now.

[flmmkrz]

well I'm chasing a bit thanks to big Z

Tbay - 1 @ -160 to win 2 units

a little safer than the -1.5 and it brings them into a value price I can stand to pay. If they win by 1 I push and I'm alright with that but Kazmir at home vs anybody is a good start, Kaz at home vs kc is a great start.

[flmmkrz]

Alright lets tally up this mess:

tbay - 3.2 units
Cubs - 1.63 units
sox - 1 unit
fish - 1 unit
Clev + 1 unit
Dbacks + 1.23 units

overall

2-4, - 4.6 units