June 5th bases with flmmkrz

[flmmkrz]

Been an odd few days to week of capping for me, find myself doing my research and deciding my plays then letting my head get too involved and I end up backing off plays before I lock them in and a couple times after I locked them in. It saved me with the brewers game today but it cost me as I would've bet the M's game so going back to my numbers and keeping my head out of this and letting the money fall where it may as I did before I got into overanalyzing irrelevant crap. There is something to be said for keeping shyt simple...

Mets - 139 to win 1 unit

Moyers at his best when pitching to impatient line ups, something this mets team is not. The mets may still be missing some pieces but Beltran is rumored to be back in the line up for this game, they are stronger with him no question but without they should also be okay. The Mets are hitting left handed pitching well and of the missing players Alou is the only one that will be missed vs Moyer, as Green isn't overly effective vs them. Beltran hits them well so if he sits his bat will be missed but there is enough there to get the job done. Moyer is also the type of pitcher the more you see him the better off you are and the mets are throwing a line up at him that has seen him plenty and hit him well. Glavines the opposite, the more he sees a line up the better he gets against them, this will be his third time vs them this year and he's held them pretty well in check both other times. The phils are batting a pathetic .236 vs lefties this season and their numbers take a significant dip when hitting on the road. Win or lose, in this spot in this scenario I'd take the mets 100 out of 100 times.

Cubbies + 108 x 2 units

Cubbies have been so overvalued all years its been crazy but they've found a team that is dwarfing their prices. Lilly despite a couple bad starts is a good start vs the brewers on styles alone. He can overpower and make you chase some tough pitches with his control, with an agressive young line up the brewers should find themselves off balance most of the game. He also pitches deep into games traditionally so the weakness of the cub pen shouldn't be an issue. Vargas however isn't made for coming up against the cubbies, the cubbies are agressive and impatient at the plate for the most part but they feast on power and Vargas challenges with very good heat. If his curve isn't going full tilt the cubbies should be able to sit on pitches and make it another rough outing vs them. He has a career 9 era vs the cubbies, only 2 games but all your big boys who love the pace have teed off on him. He's at most risk vs lefty bats and while the cubs aren't loaded on the left side they can throw 3 or 4 at them. Cubs hitting .274 off right handed pitching this season and hit well on the road.

Rox - 129 to win 1 unit

This one came down to 2 factors, Wandy is the real deal gascan on the road while Hirsh's numbers are inflated due to a very bad outing vs the cards, upto that point he'd had a solid season tho his win loss record isn't indicative of that. 2nd factor, the stros are anemic at the plate vs rhp'ing currently hitting .239 collectively. Hirsh hasn't faced the stros as yet so the first few innings should provide him an edge vs the bats. As far as bullpens, both are bad but the rox have a closer who can do the job while wheeler is a question mark at the best of times, middle relief for both is weak. Pens are a wash, the rox have the better sp'er, better bats and in limited at bats have shown that they can hit Rodriguez. In 3 career games vs the rox he has a 5.68 era. All that for a small price.


GL everyone

I'm also watching the sf line closely as I'll jump on the giants if the public can get the books to move the line on the dbacks.

[joepa66]

Better your head than your heart making you change things.....you can't rationalize those changes...LOL

GL today Film @ 11!

[gadfly36]

gl film

[flmmkrz]

and it looks like there's not gonna be any more movement on the dbacks so Im going to take:

Giants + 135 1st 5 innings x 1 unit

Plenty of value here as everyones on the RJ bandwagon and either forgotten or thought it was irrelevant that Cain matches up very well against the dbacks. Cain is absolutely filthy and the dbacks are willing to chase his stuff around, he's shut them down twice this year already. I don't trust the giants bullpen to hold his lead but while he's in this dbacks line up is going to be in tough to generate offense. Much is being made of RJ's return to form but look at the games: rockies, a team that is capable of being dangerous but batting.253 vs lefties as a team. Pitt is hitting lefties better than the rox as a team but they are amongst the worst teams in the league for a reason, they stranded base runners against him. Then the phils, on paper his best win but batting a pathetic ,236 vs lefties ( a reason im against the phils today vs Glavine ). All 3 teams have things in common, they are young and hadn't had many at bats vs the big red ass. No disrespect to the unit, he pitched very well in spots that favored him and he's getting another line up here that he should fare well against as the giants vs lefties are as bad as the phils vs lefties. The giants line up is full of vets who have seen him before and have had a good amount of success vs him. Both pitchers should have success and if this were in SF and it was Cain eating the chalk I would likely be on RJ and the dbacks. This isn't a case of my thinking one teams going to win over the other this one boils down to the dbacks as slight favorites from my numbers so im getting too big a number to not take the gmen.

[Daddy Diego]

Get 'em FLM.

[flmmkrz]

Push SF
-1.29 - 2 - 1.39

= 0-3-1 - 4.68 units

updating my record