June 7th with flmmkrz

[flmmkrz]

well this has officially been my worst week of bases this year and after 3 closers cost me yesterday I was ready to take a break and let the frustration settle before jumping back in but fawk it... Im convinced I capped it correctly I just couldn't account for all those closers going braindead on the same day...

looking for a nice bounce back today:

Tbay + 125 x 1 unit

Laying chalk on the fish bats at home where they're batting .244 with Kim on the mound??? I will gladly take the + odds on Howell who impressed in his first outing . Both teams have brutal pens but of the 2 I believe howell can go longer which should limit the rays pen to the back end where they are actually solid.

Rox -106 to win 1 unit

Francis has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball since early may, a period that saw his era drop from above 6 to 3.7. He has a limited history vs the O's, not having played them since 05 which should provide him an early edge in this game. Trachsel doesn't have great career numbers vs the rox but the relevant numbers come from an outing last year where the rox hit him very well. Again 2 bad bullpens in this one but the O's pen has been far more likely to give a game away than has the rox pen. Francis should also be able to go further into a game than Trachsel. Small price to pay for the better sp'ing and the bats that have shown they can hit the opposing pitching.

Phillies -152 to win 1 unit

The Elarton fade train continues on.

Halos - 118 to win 1 unit

Colon and the Halo bats vs Well and the cards bats for this price is a flat out steal. Like any baseball game the halos could lose this one but I would take this price on these 2 teams every time I was offered it. Wells is no closer to finding form and the Angels are as hot as any team going right now. No brainer price.

Rangers + 125 x 1 unit

This one seems to go against all convention as the brew have the better record, the better sp'er and the rangers have flat out stunk all year but this comes down to 2 factors for me. The AL is better than the NL, the rangers would have a better record than they currently do if they were in the same division as the brew. 2nd the one thing the rangers are built to do is hit, and hit in their park. Cap is a good lefty but he's playing a team that hits lefties well and stuck in a hitters park while the brew bats aren't as effective on the road. The rangers despite their brutal record actually have a very solid pen as do the brewers so it should come down to which team can do more damage early and at this price the values on the rangers.

M's + 135 x 1 unit

You gotta be kidding me that I can get this price on the M's. Batistas no stud and Germanos shown very nice stuff this year but with both teams seeing these guys for the 2nd time on a short turnaround give me the M's bats to get to the kid more than the brutal bats of the pads can get to Miggy. Germano had the luxury of not facing Sexson, Ibanez and Johjima last time around. With these guys the M's are amongst the toughest line ups to get thru in baseball. 2 very solid pens going in this one as well.

Giants - 123 to win 1 unit

Lincecum is a stud, kids stuff is electric and this time out he's not up against a phils team that hits right handers well or a team thats extremely patient at the plate. He gets the A's anemic .245 vs right handers line up. This will be his first time up vs the A's which should get him the early jump in this game. The gmen pen is a joke which makes every outing an iffy one but I'll ride the ml instead of the 5 inning here anyway. Gaudins been nasty for the A's as well but unlike Lincecum this will be the 2nd time he has to face the opposing team this season which gives the bats a slight edge. The giants are an experienced team who should be able to adjust after seeing him once before. A's pen is still a bit banged up.

Jays + 185 x 1 unit

I like Penny at home most of the time but at this price how do you not take a shot with the hot rookie after what he's done his last few outings against teams with better hitting talent than the dodgers can throw out at him. Neither team is overly impressive vs right handed pitching and both have solid pens statistically so is Penny really worth the huge difference in price when the line would be at - 125ish for most of the other pitchers in the dodgers line up. Not this much imo.

[flmmkrz]

oops wrong date, its the 8th today lol, trying to redo yesterday

[flmmkrz]

Added:

Hotlanta + 102 x 1 unit

late addition and missed out on some of the better value but I have the braves as slight faves from my numbers so at + odds there is still value on this play for me.

[flmmkrz]

another poor night, been a rough week

-1 unit atlanta
-1 Jays ( should've won)
-1.23 Giants
-1.52 phils
-1 tbay ( blew the 6 run lead to lose by 6)
-1.06 rox

+ 1 halos
+1.35 M's
+1.25 Rangers

3-6, -3.21 units