The Will The Yankees Get Swept Today Thread

[recovering77]

Wow, I haven't posted on Predictem in months. I actually put gambling aside for the past few months. Deposited a little money last night though to play a lil poker (bad idea). Managed to get lucky and make my money back though, but I ended up depositing more than I wanted to.

Anyways, since the books are taking forever to pay out, I figure I'd bet it on baseball. I saw that the Rocket is pitching today at a -190 line, and immediately saw the rockies as a good bet. I haven't been following baseball too much, but occassionally catch a few highlights. I was pretty surprised to see that the Rockies have taken the first two though. so.....

I'm about to lay it down on the Rockies, but the thought of the yankees getting swept doesn't sound right to me. especially when the line continues to rise as opposed to the first couple of games, where the rockies took em both.

I guess it makes sense though. It's the Rocket vs. the rockies #3 starter. I'd feel safer about this bet though if the yankees won the first 2 games. all this praise about the rocket, just like Daisuke, who has turned out to be only a decent pitcher with a winning record.

I have a feeling the game is going over too. $120 pays over 500 in a rockies ML +170 & over 10.5 parlay. Past history has shown that Coors is a place where the HR's love to fly. With all those good bats, I think over 10.5 sounds pretty good.

so what is everyone's take on this game? If my book had an overnight run line, I might consider taking Rockies +1.5, but none.



P.S. Just took a look at the NFL futures. Liking Teams to win the SB: Miami 40 to 1, and Dallas 25-1. New England the favs to take it this year.

[recovering77]

added note:

Roger Clemens (-190) 1-1, 3.65 ERA AT
Rodrigo Lopez (+170) 3-0, 2.90 ERA


am I missing something here? A guy with a better ERA, undefeated on the season, playing at home, is getting +170?

[joepa66]

GL Recovering and welcome back in......

[rjp]

Rockies +1.5 is +EV again today.

Classic overvaluation of the Yankees and Clemens, who is making just his 2nd big league start of the year. He got bailed out with some nice hitting in his first outing. Hopefully the Rockies stick it to him.

Even if the true price is -180/+180 for this game there is plenty of value at +1.5 +110. +1.5 +105 is worth less, but still worth a small bet.

[Low]

Thought I'd share some info I found....


Roger Clemens has only had 2 starts this season. In 12.1 innings pitched, he has allowed 12 hits and 3 walks, with an ERA of 3.65.
Rockies line-up hasn't faced him too much, but there has been some past success: Atkins .500; Carroll .600; Hawpe .333; Holliday .667; and Sullivan .286.



Rodrigo Lopez has a 3-0 record and an ERA of 2.90. In 40.1 innings, he has allowed 43 hits and 7 walks.
At home this year (his 1st year pitching at Coors Field), he is 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA, In his last 3 starts, he is 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA, In those last 3 starts, he has gone 17.1 innings, allowing 22 hits and 5 walks, with only 7 strikeouts.
His career record against the Yankees is 7-8 with a 6.02 ERA.
the Yankees career batting averages against him: Abreu .308; Cabrera .364; Cairo .357; Damon .313; Jeter .446; and A-Rod .289. The Yankees, average 5.7 runs per game against righty pitchers.

I'm on the over 10 1/2

GL

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by rjp

Rockies +1.5 is +EV again today.

Classic overvaluation of the Yankees and Clemens, who is making just his 2nd big league start of the year. He got bailed out with some nice hitting in his first outing. Hopefully the Rockies stick it to him.

This is the Rocket's 3rd start, & IMO he pitched pretty well vs the Mets in his second start. He got into trouble early but settled down nicely. I definitely agree he is overvalued today. Lopez has been pretty solid this year, & the Yanks have had trouble scoring. Only 1x in Lopez' last 6 starts did an opponent score o3 runs. 5 of NY's last 6 road games have gone under 10.5. IMO the public will likely jump on the over, but I think the under 10.5 is worth a look, as well as the Yankees team u6. They have only managed 1 run each of the last 2, so I couldn't justify a play on them. Laying -185 is a bad idea most of the time, let alone on a road team who is 15-20 away & has looked bad the past 2 games! You can lose a ton playing on teams who are "due"

[seanjo22]

Although Lopez is 3-0 & has a good ERA, those 3 games have been against TB, BAL, CIN. Not exactly the lineup he'll be facing today. I'm putting a solid play on the Yanks to avoid the sweep. Liking Roger & the bats. Small play on the over as well.

[Low]

something else I found...


Umpire: Jim Reynolds @ the plate
Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 games with Reynolds behind home plate.

Rockies are 5-1 in their last 6 games with Reynolds behind home plate.
Home team is 9-2 in Reynolds' last 11 games behind home plate vs. Colorado.
Home team is 12-4 in Reynolds' last 16 interleague games behind home plate.

[recovering77]

well I was pretty much gonna take the Rockies no matter what, but I wanted to hear some input on it. Most people today are believing that the yanks don't get swept today, but I figure why not go for some value here. Nice afternoon ball game I can catch up on MLB.com.

overrated pitcher on the road against a hot team.

As I was doing my last research I saw the line go from +170 to +165. I got it locked in at +165 though. I'm a lil rusty on line movement though, especially in baseball. wonder who I should have taken.

Well anyways. GL everyone.

I got Colorado ML +165 127/209

Win or lose I probably won't be on the baseball forum much.

[Daddy Diego]

Look at the run support lopez has been getting. Pretty easy to go out there and pitch when you're up 6-1. Little bit tougher when you're down 2-1 and the Rocket is pitching for the other team and you know every single batter almost has had your number at some point... really odd that wagerline team experts are 16 to 1 on the Rockies in this matchup.

[Underdog88]

1 more to go & the sweep is official....

[Low]

Nice call on the under Underdog

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by recovering77

well I was pretty much gonna take the Rockies no matter what, but I wanted to hear some input on it. Most people today are believing that the yanks don't get swept today, but I figure why not go for some value here.

I got Colorado ML +165 127/209

Nice play...congrats

[rjp]

Somehow missed one of Clemens' starts.