The truth about betting parlays

[homedawg]

Parlay bets are gambling’s guilty pleasure. Just like biggie sizing your combo or doing the chicken dance - you know you shouldn’t, but we all have.

Tying together a few favorite plays with the promise that a small bet can become a big payday is very tempting. Why wouldn’t you put five bucks down on five games for two grand? Because parlays are about as hard to hit as Floyd Mayweather Jr., that’s why.

Ask a professional handicapper and they will tell you if you plan on making a career out of sports gambling it is a one-bet-at-a-time, one-day-at-a-time process. That said, you ask the same capper if they’ve ever parlayed and chances are they’ll crack a smile, give a chuckle, and follow it up with a story.

“I remember getting paid 80-1 on a parlay during a dreadful 2005 NFL season on one of those weekends when just about all the underdogs cashed in,” says Ted Sevransky of Covers Experts. “I also had one crazy one during bowl season (2003) when I needed Cal to beat Virginia Tech. That one was worth about five figures.”

Parlay bets are popular at Las Vegas sportsbooks, which cater to tourists looking for that big Vegas jackpot. Walk into any book along the strip and the first thing you’ll see is parlay cards, prominently displayed and advertised.

“Parlay bettors looking for a big score are classic casino losers," says Sevransky.

However, according to Las Vegas oddsmaker Keith Glantz, regular bettors as well as first timers are taking advantage of parlays more than ever. Glantz credits the increased interest to favorable lines and less juice being offered by competing books to draw customers.

The 25-year sports gambling veteran believes the parlay, also known as a “sucker’s bet,” is becoming a solid wagering strategy since casinos are paying out more to stay competitive.

“They used to say the same with exotics on horse racing,” says Glantz. “(Parlays) pay pretty big for a small amount. If you are betting like that it isn't that bad a play. But for the books, of course they would like to see everyone take parlays.”

On average, parlay bets make up 30 percent of a Las Vegas sportsbooks’ holding, dropping recently due to bigger payouts. The handle of an online casino consists of about 17 percent parlay money since they don’t see the square tourist action like Nevada’s books.

Bookmakers at bodog.com report that one in four two-team parlays pay out but bettors making what they call “kamikaze” cards of 10 to 12 games, brings the overall success rate down to between 10 and 15 percent.

The widely popular sportsbook has its fair share of incredible parlay stories like one customer service agent who received a phone call from a bettor who had cashed in a $15 nine-game ticket for several thousand dollars. The rep was amazed and congratulated the customer saying, “You must be ecstatic hitting a nine teamer?” The customer responded with, “I’ve done it before. This is easy."

“Sure enough the player had hit another nine and an eight-team parlay earlier in the year,” says a bodog.com bookmaker. “We never track them as they happen but we’ll gladly congratulate the players when they hit a big one.”

There are unlimited stories like this and anyone who has laid coin on an event has had dreams of grandeur involving that one big score. Even the world’s most patient and careful gamblers can’t resist the lure of the parlay bet.

Wise guys know the risks as well as the benefits of making a parlay and look for opportunities to improve their bets while keeping the stakes low.

"The one time (a parlay) does make sense is in MLB and NHL when you play the moneyline and have a couple -150 favorites on the board,” says Scott Rickenbach of Covers Experts. “If you're trying to win $200 on each and split, you lose money. So I'll tie them together to lower my risk on one bet. It reduces the cash you put out on favorites.”

Like any risk, doing your homework is the difference between cashing your bet and chasing it. If you research five plays and feel strongly about three, bet those three and parlay the remaining with a small wager - especially if these games are connected.

Correlated bets, like sides and totals, have great parlay potential and give truth to the age-old betting adage of favorites and the over or dogs and the under. A perfect case of correlated bets was at this year’s NCAA national tournament when North Carolina was a 10-point favorite in its second round matchup with Michigan State.

If the Tar Heels were to cover the number set by oddsmakers they would have to play their up-tempo style of basketball, leading bettors to take over the 135-point total. If the Spartans were to have a chance they would have to slow down the game and grind it out on defense, giving value to the under. North Carolina eventually won and covered 81-67, also playing over the total and cashing in for sharp bettors who parlayed both lines.

"The No. 1 thing is don't bet parlays unless there is a reason,” says Sevransky. “Ninety-nine percent of reasons to parlay are wrong. Late season scenarios, when a team's performance affects another team's performances, are good spots with reason."

Many times in a sport's closing weeks the playoff picture is still being painted, like this year’s Arena Football schedule. In Week 17 parlay bettors were tempted to take the moneyline on the New Orleans VooDoo along with the Colorado Crush. The VooDoo’s game with the Georgia Force held homefield advantage implications for Colorado’s opponents, the Dallas Desperados.

In theory, if New Orleans beat Georgia then Dallas would have automatic homefield advantage in the playoffs and could rest players against the Crush. However, the VooDoo failed to beat the Force and the Desperados defeated Colorado.

"I don't think I've ever won a parlay in my life, we're about 0-500,” says handicapper and lines consultant David Malinsky. “But I do know a lot of wise guys that make them. One of the things that sharps have to be aware of is profiling at sportsbooks and playing a parlay here and there can keep the books off you."

Malinsky adds that most online casinos monitor their customers very closely and have two completely different sets of odds – one for the public and one for high rollers. Sharps trying to keep a low profile with books will occasionally put together multiple-game parlays to take the appearance of an average bettor while keeping their odds favorable for future wagers.

Of course, you can use whatever parlay strategy you like, but a little luck still goes a long way. Even longtime Vegas insiders like Glantz have to laugh at some of the unlikely parlay payouts he’s encountered during his time in the industry.

“We used to put out a special that if you bet five dollars on a 15-play card we would pay 20,000-1 if they all hit,” says Glantz. “So one week a lady came down and bet for her husband. She was supposed to take all faves but mistakenly took one dog. All the favorites won that week and the one that didn’t was the game she messed up on.”

The very next week a truck driver mistakenly ended up at the hotel and casino where Glantz was working and alternated favorites and underdogs on the same 15-game parlay card. He won all 15 games and forced the casino to hand out its second $100,000 jackpot in two weeks.

“If he had gone the other way he would have went 0-15,” jokes Glantz. “You laugh at it now but at the time it wasn’t funny at all.”

[rjp]

Sometimes Covers' experts aren't quite experts.

The absolute best use of a parlay is when the bets are correlated. There are other rarer instances, but that's about the only reason.

[boycali01]

good story. good info.

[Stifler's Mom]

Parlaying a pair of dogs together on the ML provides the best practical odds of actually having a chance to win at playing parlays IMO.

At least this way, when you win, you get a payout worth mentioning.

Of course, you can't just stab at any 2 dogs and hope to get paid, lol, but what I'm saying, is that if you are someone who is able to pick alot of dog winners, parlaying 2 of them now and then that you feel are both strong plays can be worth the payout.

Problem is that most people parlay a bunch of huge faves together, and still either pay juice or get a small dog payout when needing a bunch of games to hit.

Take an example on today's MLB card that I bet ALOT of people will parlay together. NYY + CLE + BOS. The payout would be slightly over +200 with those 3 teams parlayed on the ML. What's the point? Is there a greater than 2/1 chance one of those 3 teams will lose? Hell yes there is. Piss poor odds.

I could also parlay small dogs PHI and CHC for a payout of +330....which in IMO has at least the same chance, if not better, of cashing.

Personally I don't play parlays as a general rule, and if i do, it's because I'm "gambling" or "taking a chance" at what I believe is an exceptional payout, not because I feel I have "a bunch of solid winners I don't wanna lay the juice for, so lets make a parlay", looking for an easy winner when all these big faves cash, which they usually don't.

Another problem I have seen with parlays is that people pick one game they think is solid, and make about 5 or 6 parlays, all with that one game in it. Hello. Just lay the chalk. If it loses, it's probably gonna cost you as much or more in parlay losses than if you just played it straight! And worse yet, if it wins, and you still lose another game in those parlays, you're still going to lose! Even if you hit one parlay of the 5 or 6, what's gonna happen? You'll break even? That doesn't make much sense to me.

I agree about the correlated parlays though. If you can find those situations where "if the side hits, the total almost has to hit as well", then you are probably getting better odds to parlay the two than to play either one straight.

Anyway, just my 2 cents on the subject, lol

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by rjp

The absolute best use of a parlay is when the bets are correlated. There are other rarer instances, but that's about the only reason.

I agree- Works best when a team "will cover only if they execute their gameplan, which in turn should dictate pace of game" logic. I play parlays more than I should, but almost always keep them .25 to .5 of my normal wager. I was toying around earlier this year with parlaying +2.5 runlines together, & it was a disaster. Last year in bases I kept a seperate record for my parlays & was ahead at the end of the year, but I wasn't parlaying the 2 biggest odds on board either. Often the ones I hit were a small fave paired up with a dog. Dog payouts are much, much more sweeter to hit. I still think that basketball is the best sport to parlay in & football is the worst, JMO.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

Parlaying a pair of dogs together on the ML provides the best practical odds of actually having a chance to win at playing parlays IMO.


Another problem I have seen with parlays is that people pick one game they think is solid, and make about 5 or 6 parlays, all with that one game in it. Hello. Just lay the chalk. If it loses, it's probably gonna cost you as much or more in parlay losses than if you just played it straight! And worse yet, if it wins, and you still lose another game in those parlays, you're still going to lose! Even if you hit one parlay of the 5 or 6, what's gonna happen? You'll break even? That doesn't make much sense to me.

Great points Stif- My first year betting football (well before i managed my bankroll properly) I hit a couple small parlays & hit 2 $300 2 teamers in football one Sunday. I thought, hell this is easy, I'm gonna kill this bookie. Well that was about the last time I won a parlay that season. Not to mention the bastard was giving me bad odds... Live & learn

[Q-Unit]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

My first year betting football (well before i managed my bankroll properly)

known as the good ol days LOL

when I started betting back my freshman year in college, we'd always do

3 game parlays on saturday NCAA football, for a dollar to pay out like 7 bucks.

won more than you'd think, but it was for a dollar LOL the thrill of the action just wasnt the same, then I started snorting the hard stuff (higher ante's not drugs LOL)




parlays are indeed the guilty pleasure, my favorite memory of one I hit was an 8 game random drunk middle of the night soccer parlay where I bet on all the faves, and I ended up winning 48 bucks off of that 1 dollar parlay!

[FultonStreetBlues]

Looks like every person I have seen parlayed NYY with something I being one of those. And Just like that Igawa gives up back to back jacks. At least 4 people today all felt like Yankees was a good moneyline bet but chose too parlay them with something else too make the odds better. Bottomline with parlays is when your hitting them there great, but the other 90-99% for some people are losses. Quick Nick being the worst example of a parlay bettor. You cannot whatever you do have normal patterns of 5-7 parlays a day. Its a one a day maybe two a day process.

[homedawg]

I posted this article, hopin' it would prevent anyone from parlayin' .... now everyone is parlayin', ooops, my bad....

Ask a professional handicapper and they will tell you if you plan on making a career out of sports gambling it is a one-bet-at-a-time, one-day-at-a-time process.

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL, i did 2 parlays today, but with a specific plan in mind.

Worst case scenario even if my second parlay loses is that it SAVED me +.90 units on betting the pathetic Yankees straight up, LOL