Predictem Cappers 07/08/07

[Horfin]

These are not my picks

to see what these are go here: Predictem Cappers 07/07/07

I am going to be out for church so I won't get many of the 1pm games posted. Here are the plays so far:

Texas -125
Seattle +165


Records:
Posted: 5-6 -$58.53
What would havebeen posted: 0-2 -200
ALL 5-8 -$258.53


Horfy

[Horfin]

Well I missed these because of church:
Boston -135
LAA -115
Milwaukee-155
Arizona +140

I'll keep tracking what was posted as well what could have been.

Horfy

[rjp]

Horfin, most of the guys that post in the thread are as square as a brick! Do you really have this much free time?? ;)

[Q-Unit]

[Horfin]

Originally Posted by rjp

Horfin, most of the guys that post in the thread are as square as a brick! Do you really have this much free time?? ;)

What are the guys that don't post in the thread?

No I don't have that much free time, but weekdays should be a lot easier than weekends. Pretty much check it once and go from there.

Just tryin' to make a buck.


Q-U,
Looks like it will be a 2-0 day for the posted plays and 0-4 in the unposted plays..good thing I went to church.

[Stifler's Mom]

I think what RJP is saying is that most, **not all, but most**, of the guys who post in the POD thread are posting plays that basically everyone is all over already...or the "easy winners" of the day.

We all know how it turns out in the long run if you keep playing on all of the "square" plays in any given sport, which is exactly what you are bound to get if you add up the plays in any POD thread.

Plus that posting a bunch of -150 to -200 plays, or a bunch of -1.5 runlines is really no way to make money at bases if you're looking for long term success.

Not sure if i explained that right. I know exactly what he means, and what i'm trying to say, but just not sure if it came out correctly.

[Horfin]

Stif,

He's a dick anyway, so it doesn't really matter. Just playin', rjp and I go way back . I figured that is what he meant.

I'm playin' and trackin' and seein' what happens. There are no runlines, just ML.

Last one:

SD -150

Let's shoot for 3-0.

Horfii

[V3r1f13d]

@Stiffler
I would have to disagree on your RL comment. Out of all the RL's I have taken in my life, I have gotten bit by the greediness no more than 10 times, meaning the ML hits but the RL doesn't. Ya, it sucks when it happens (just like how I took the Texas RL and Horfin took the safer ML) but the profit of me taking the RL over the ML has been much greater in the long run. Then you also benefit when not even the ML hits, and you paid much less (most of the time no juice at all). To me when I see a good RL play I play it, and it has worked out for me in the long run. Not saying its for everyone, but it has helped more than hurt...by far.

If the RL is a profit of 75 or more, I will take it (depending on who is pitching of course). When I see run lines with a 50 or less difference, I stay far away from it.

@Horfin, I'm on SD as well (-140).

[rjp]

Stif got it right. I just figure you're going to end up laying a lot of Red Sox, Tigers, etc.

[Stifler's Mom]

I don't disagree that -1.5 RL's can make money, but normally in a POD contest, you'd see alot of "NY Yankees RL -1.5 -130" and **** like that just to avoid paying juice....not taking RL's for a team like KC who might be -110, but where the -1.5 RL might be +180 or better, in which case you'd be in a much more profitable spot than laying juice to get the -1.5.

Other cases where I see -1.5 RL's as a total waste of time and money would be on a team like Oakland or San Diego who might be -200 or more on the ML because Peavy or Haren is pitching, yet those teams don't score enough to cover -1.5 RL's at a pace nearly enough to make taking them profitable, especially when you have to lay like -110 to get em or whatever they might be for that particular game.

If the ML is like -160 and the -1.5 RL is +130 or +140 though, I can definitely see where you have a good profit margin taking RL over ML

[V3r1f13d]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

I don't disagree that -1.5 RL's can make money, but normally in a POD contest, you'd see alot of "NY Yankees RL -1.5 -130" and **** like that just to avoid paying juice....not taking RL's for a team like KC who might be -110, but where the -1.5 RL might be +180 or better, in which case you'd be in a much more profitable spot than laying juice to get the -1.5.

Other cases where I see -1.5 RL's as a total waste of time and money would be on a team like Oakland or San Diego who might be -200 or more on the ML because Peavy or Haren is pitching, yet those teams don't score enough to cover -1.5 RL's at a pace nearly enough to make taking them profitable, especially when you have to lay like -110 to get em or whatever they might be for that particular game.

If the ML is like -160 and the -1.5 RL is +130 or +140 though, I can definitely see where you have a good profit margin taking RL over ML

Well said. Couldn't agree more...