Teams & Pitchers to Play or Fade in the 2ndh.....

[Underdog88]

I'm not nearly as into capping bases as I am with Football/Basketball, & I think it shows in my record. Time to start doing my homework... My question is this- Are there any specific things you guys will be looking for when making a wager in the 2ndh of the season? I'm not talking about blindly fading the public. Or backing Beckett, Halladay, Peavy, Penny, Haren & so on. What are some possible misconceptions about teams/pitchers that could result in value? What teams do you expect to come out on fire/ice cold, & why? What pitchers/teams overachieved in the 1st half of the season?


Here are some of my thoughts


Schedule (Dis)advantages in July


Tigers- 18 of their next 21 games will be played on the road.....7 on the road to start (@ Sea & Minny), followed by a 3 game homestand vs KC. After that they embark on an 11 game roadtrip, visiting the Wsox, Angels & A's. Any other team & I would think there could be trouble, but the Tigers are road warriors. Their 27-15 road record is tops in the league, & the Gambler is now back... I think they continue their winning ways.

Cleveland- They have a pretty nice start to the 2ndh, with 16 of their next 20 games at home. Yeah they face Boston, but they get KC, Chi, & Minny. The 4 road games are in Texas. Cleveland has the best home record in the game @ 31-12, & if the Tigers stumble on the road, the Indians could easily get the division lead....

Yankees- I would say they have a pretty good schedule 2ndh...Although they are away for 11 of their first 19 games, they are @ the Drays, Royals & Orioles (home vs Tor & TB). If they are going to go on a run, this is the time... IMO it won't be until mid-August that the Yanks can really prove anything though(Clev, Det, Angels, Det, Boston...)

Houston, Cincy, TB, & Texas, are the worst road-teams. Cincy (16-26 on road), start off with 11 straight road games @ NYM, Atl & Flor. I'm sure the lines will be silly on the first 2 series... Houston plays 9 straight road games to kick off the 2ndh- @ Chi, Wash & Pitt. Houston could be a very good fade to start, as I would think both the Nats/Pirates have potential to be undervalued... Those stick out to me.

Brewers- What a schizo team- 30-13 at home, & 19-26 on the road? That sets up a big red flag to me, & I think they will have trouble in the 2ndh. They do have it a bit easy to start the 2ndh though, facing Colo, Zona & SF at home. Those 3 teams are a combined 57-76 on the road this year...Mil is 3-7 their last 10 games....



Over-valued Pitchers


I would say off the bat any pitcher for Boston, NYY & Mets are likely to be overvalued, save Wang & Beckett. I tend to think Beckett will be overvalued in the 2ndh since he is not likely to repeat what he did the 1sth. I think Kasmir is immensely overvalued most of the time, for ther simple fact that TB is a bad team. They tend to be favored when he pitches & they are horrid faves..... I have faded TB as a fave for a while with good results. Kasmir has allowed 119 hits in 112 ip, & in the last 7 games has a 7.20 rea & an opp ba of .318! Of course Ervin santana on the road is no mystery... I have no reasoning , but i think Gaudin will come back down to earth.

Undervalued


I think Guthrie is still a bit undervalued... 6th best era in the game, 102 ip, 75 hits & 16 bb. He's also 1st in the AL in WHIP (0.91). Pretty impressive.





That's all I got for now, hopefully we can & the books

[Hoosier]

Good stuff UDoggie. Just real quick off the top of my head, i'd say the Royals will be a team that could make you some serious money in the 2nd half. They have some emerging young guys just starting to find it (Gordon, Butler, etc.) with a nice mix of some vets (Sweeney, Grudz, etc.) Their pitching is still suspect at best, but Meche has been a pretty solid starter, and De La Rosa is starting to come on a little bit. With Grienke and Soria throwing the way he has out of the pen, that bolsters an otherwise terrible bullpen. Royals went 15-12 in June, which went under the radar a little IMO. I'd look for that to continue.

[flmmkrz]

off the top of my head and I know there are so many more that'll hit me so i'll share them when they pop into my head.....

overvalued, the padres pitching staff. Young and Peavy get huge chalk, and they are studs so its not tough to understand why they get the chalk but much like the oakland staff there is money to be made betting against them when the chalk gets crazy cause their bats are at best unreliable.

Fausto Carmona, this guys getting almost CC type chalk these days the way bettors are backing him. His numbers are good but he's been the recipient of playing an easy sched, in 10 starts he's played teams over .500 only 3 times, tigers twice and the braves once. He won all 3 but he'd gotten some very good run support as well in those games. He's good but that kinda chalk good? I dont think so. The tribe dont have the best pen to back him up either so while he's not an auto fade by any means but when he faces some tougher line ups his being overpriced should get you some good value back.


Underated

Jeff Weaver, Miguel Batista both from the M's both can be backed for very little but both are pitching very well as of late backed by a strong bullpen and the M's potent hitting line up. I've read all year on various boards that both of these guys are automatic fades so people keep on throwing their money against them but both have turned a corner and are pitching well. They're not gonna win you every game and laying a decent amount of chalk I wouldnt play them necessarily but getting + odds i'd have no hesitation.

Noah Lowry at home, his numbers in SF are just sick but he doesn't get the respect that Zito or Morris get. Backing him at home on a small number ,you're getting solid value.

Wandy Rodríguez at home, like Lowry his home numbers are sick but he's been a gascan the last couple seasons so the fade is still almost habit. Stros suck and he's not a big name so you can have him for cheap in houston. Outside houston he's freakin Erv Santana outside anaheim, he blows.

[Underdog88]

Hoosier- There is definitely still the perception that the R's are a solid fade. Hell, the Jays & Yankees have both lost more road games than KC. For some reson I always seem to jump on them at the wrong times, but I think Meche could get some valued lines.

Flmmkrz- I agree with about SD. They tend to struggle batting, so there's always the chance of a low scoring tight game. I played a couple SD team unders with good success. That's one I'll be looking into 2ndh as well.

I see your point about Carmona, & noticed his lines were getting pretty high. Tough to play against the Indians at home, but I'm sure the # will be ridiculous when he faces off against De La Rosa. His only road start in july will be vs Texas. McCarthy should get the start, & has pitched decent at home lately allowing only 1 run in each of his last 2 starts. Also some really great insight on undervalued pitchers, IMO. Thanks you

[Horfin]

My worfless information:

Arroyyo (Cincy) should be much better in the 2nd half. You should get good value with Harang and do not bet against Homer Bailey.

Other than cincy I don't know much specifics.

Horfy

[BUNK MORELAND]

Under plays seem to be solid right now for BUCCOS ..

They have something like 9 straight quality starts i do believe ..