Toronto?

[Pow]

marcum is on the mound today and he pitches awesome away from home and the blue jays need to pick up some of the losses they just gave to the yanks...

meche is struggling as of late and KC only has 26 wins at home this season....


why did the line open around toronto -112?




am i missing something?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I like the Jays too....Marcum doesn't get much respect, and all he does is put up quality starts....GL.

[Stifler's Mom]

I haven't looked closely at this game yet, but on the surface, the line seems about right, if not in the favor of KC since they are dogged and look to have AT LEAST a 50% shot to win the game.

KC may only have 26 home wins, but the Jays only have 22 road wins, and I personally don't see as to where TOR is even the better team in tonight's matchup. Unless either Halladay is pitching for TOR, or Perez is pitching for KC, I find these two teams to be about equal (injuries considered). I mean seriously, put Halladay and his 13 wins on KC and subract ****ty Odalis Perez and his 6 wins, and KC (50-63) has the same record as the Jays (57-56)....just blindly, not factoring in things like run support, etc.

Neither one of those guys factors in tonight.

And yes, I am aware Marcum has comparable numbers to Halladay right now, but before someone points that out, so does Meche, and I'm going to guess that no one here is going to say either one of those guys are an elite pitcher like Halladay has proven to be for the last few years.

I know the Jays have a good bullpen, but SO DOES KC....at least when trying to hold a lead. Gimme Greinke and/or Riske in the 7th and 8th and Soria in the 9th with a lead, and I like my chances....so I'm gonna say the bullpens are a wash here, since middle relief (not a strong point of KC's pen, and makes their pen numbers inflated towards the bad) shouldn't play any part, unless Meche gets rocked, in which case KC was probably going to lose anyhow, in which case the middle relief still doesn't matter if they're already getting pounded.

As far as Meche getting rocked last time out, it was against the RED HOT Yankees. I guess he can get a mulligan for that....at least in my book.

Just the way I look at games, and while I certainly can't say KC is a solid winner in this one, I sure can't say the same for TOR either....and that is why there is probably value on the home dog IMO.

[Pow]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

I haven't looked closely at this game yet, but on the surface, the line seems about right, if not in the favor of KC since they are dogged and look to have AT LEAST a 50% shot to win the game.

KC may only have 26 home wins, but the Jays only have 22 road wins, and I personally don't see as to where TOR is even the better team in tonight's matchup. Unless either Halladay is pitching for TOR, or Perez is pitching for KC, I find these two teams to be about equal (injuries considered). I mean seriously, put Halladay and his 13 wins on KC and subract ****ty Odalis Perez and his 6 wins, and KC (50-63) has the same record as the Jays (57-56)....just blindly, not factoring in things like run support, etc.

Neither one of those guys factors in tonight.

And yes, I am aware Marcum has comparable numbers to Halladay right now, but before someone points that out, so does Meche, and I'm going to guess that no one here is going to say either one of those guys are an elite pitcher like Halladay has proven to be for the last few years.

I know the Jays have a good bullpen, but SO DOES KC....at least when trying to hold a lead. Gimme Greinke and/or Riske in the 7th and 8th and Soria in the 9th with a lead, and I like my chances....so I'm gonna say the bullpens are a wash here, since middle relief (not a strong point of KC's pen, and makes their pen numbers inflated towards the bad) shouldn't play any part, unless Meche gets rocked, in which case KC was probably going to lose anyhow, in which case the middle relief still doesn't matter if they're already getting pounded.

As far as Meche getting rocked last time out, it was against the RED HOT Yankees. I guess he can get a mulligan for that....at least in my book.

Just the way I look at games, and while I certainly can't say KC is a solid winner in this one, I sure can't say the same for TOR either....and that is why there is probably value on the home dog IMO.

thanks for the assessment homeboy...

i hear "KC" and i instantaneously put their opponent as the huge favorite...

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL, last year that would have been a good idea, but they're doing a bit better this season. The players even seem to care if they win or lose this year, unlike last year when they just seemed like they knew they were destined to lose and accepted it, lol

[BoilerBacker]

I almost played KC here, but did not out of respect to Marcum. I think the books believe KC will win this game. Line is pulling serious play on Tor due to low juice. Almost the same situation in the Bos-Balt game. Matsuzaka getting a lot of play. I like Balt in that game. Bedard is a quality pitcher. .................If Balt blow pen doesnt cave.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by BoilerBacker

I almost played KC here, but did not out of respect to Marcum. I think the books believe KC will win this game. Line is pulling serious play on Tor due to low juice. Almost the same situation in the Bos-Balt game. Matsuzaka getting a lot of play. I like Balt in that game. Bedard is a quality pitcher. .................If Balt blow pen doesnt cave.

I was looking at Baltimore too...but that bullpen is getting killed, and Boston can throw out Okijama/Gagne/Papelbon for the last 3 innings. Sick. Boston wins it late IMO.

[Stifler's Mom]

I'm not as familiar with the Balt pen as some of the others around the league, so what I'm wondering is it their ENTIRE bullpen getting killed (set up man and closer included), or just that their SP has been so bad, they they're chucking every ****hole pitcher they have filling up spots on the roster in there to pitch an inning or two, and they're getting hammered because they suck, therefore inflating the pen numbers.

I think that's something many overlook (myself included sometimes) when they say "So and so has a bad bullpen". Like in the case of KC and TB, yea, they have plenty of suck asses out there, but I'm not afraid to be on either one of em in a close game when only the back end is used in the final innings.

I'm considering a play on Balt myself....but I'm not sure because of the bullpen issues they've been having. Papelbon/Gagne/Okajima doesn't worry be one bit, because if I play on the O's, it's because I'm playing on them to get to Matsuzaka and for Bedard to hold Boston in check, not for them to pull off a 9th inning win. I'm just worried the 2 former things will happen, and the O's pen might blow it, and that's the only thing holding me up.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Yeah...actually the whole bullpen is getting killed. I checked them out this afternoon, as it was a big part of my play with the starters both being good quality, and the Boston bullpen being great. I believe only one reliever has an ERA under 4, and thats submariner Chad Bradford...and maybe Janie Walker...but they've been getting hit hard lately as well. Closer Ray is having a horrible year, but is now on the DL, and that leaves the clsers role to Dany Baez and his 5.77 ERA. And the rest of the scrubs have era's well over 5.

Another big thing is they've been getting a TON of work lately with the starters going 5.1/4.0/5.2/6.2/3.1 innings in their past 5 games. Boston had a day off yesterday.