MLB Tues 8/14 - Sports Betting Forums

Stifler's Mom · #1 (**permalink**) 08-14-2007, 04:37 PM

ytd 423-424 (+49.45 units)

Nats +100

Kyle Lohse stinks. Washington is 13-3 in their last 16 home games and is 11-2 at home since the all star break. They are also an extremely respectable 18-12 overall since the all star break, especially for a team pretty much everyone said was the worst in MLB and would be lucky to win 50 games.

Philly, whom many consider to be hot and a better team than Washington, is 17-11 since the all star break, and is only 7-7 on the road since then.

The Nats also have a solid bullpen, so not a big worry there either. Only plus the Phillies have here is a better offense.

Not saying Philly sucks, or that they don't have a shot here, but I am saying the line is wrong. Philly is only favored here due to public perception that the Nats suck. That is, however, an incorrect statement judging by the on field performance of the Nats in the last month plus.

Wrong fave. Nice value on the Nats IMO.

Tampon Bay +125

Backing Kazmir over Lester. That's basically it. Hopefully if Tampa has a lead, their bullpen can hold up in the late innings. Either us Tampon backers are gonna look smart for taking them at this low line over Boston, or really dumb for playing a **** team like Tampa on the road against a first place team at such a low line, lol.

St Louis +120

The Brewers are a splendid fade IMHO.

I mean really, they keep losing games, yet keep drawing favorite lines.

As far as this particular game, Capuano is 0-9 with an ERA of 6.33 in his last 14 starts. Does it get any worse than that?

OK, so Capuano sucks, but the Brewers are good at home. Really? They're 9-7 there since the all star break. Average I'd say....and i also don't know how this makes Capuano suck any less.

The Brewers are also just 13-17 overall since the break. Nothing great about that either, and actually it's pretty poor for a team who is supposedly a division leader.

St Louis on the other hand has gotten a huge boost by Rick Ankiel of all people. Also, Kip Wells has pitched much better lately, and IMO he's sure as hell better than Cappuccino.

Then there's the bad Brewers bullpen, which has been known to blow up at any time.

My point is, how all of this adds up to Milwaukee being favored is beyond me.

IMO this is just another line made on public perception that the Brewers are better than they are....and another incorrect fave.

2 units each

Well, these are what I got at first glace. Gonna see if I can come up with anything else that stands out after digging a little deeper.

Stifler's Mom · #2 (**permalink**) 08-14-2007, 05:55 PM

Came up with one more. Not sure how I overlooked this...

Twins -105

2 units

OK, so Ramirez has a good record at home, and so does Seattle. That's about where it ends though.

Ramirez has a home WHIP of 1.46 and hitters are hitting .285 off him at Safeco, despite his 6-0 home record. There's sure as hell nothing special about that. He's winning home games and keeping his home ERA half respectable because he's getting run support and somehow escaping jams, like he did last time out at home against Boston, where it seemed like he was getting out of jam with minimal or no damage nearly every other inning.

Oh yea, Ramirez also has an ERA of 8.68 in night games....for whatever that's worth, as I know some of those beatings came on the road, where apparently he's a completely different pitcher.

Garza on the other hand, has been nothing short of awesome, and only has a 1-3 record due to lack of run support. I know the Twins are struggling offensively, but if anything might be a cure for that, it's Ramirez taking the hill against you.

Garza's 6 starts:

0 ER @ CWS
0 ER vs DET
3 ER vs LAA
1 ER @ CLE
2 ER vs CLE
1 ER @ KC

He also pitched 2 scoreless innings in relief vs the Yanks before joining the rotation.

Basically this comes down to Ramirez being a good luck pitcher who is going to be fortunate to hold the Twins or anyone else to under about 4 runs on any given night, going up against Garza, a tough luck pitcher who hasn't given up more than 3 ER in a start since joining the rotation, but is losing due to lack of run support.

The Twins bullpen is also good so bullpen blowups are not normally an issue you need to concern yourself with when backing them.

I have to believe that due to this pitching mismatch alone, the Twins have more than a pick em type edge tonight, as even struggling hitters are often able to put up some runs against poor pitching, while good pitching will normally shut down even a good offense.