JB's MLB Thursday

[JB]

YTD 159-155 (+18.17)
Pending Plays:
Arizona Diamondbacks to win world series (+4500) - 1 unit
Milwaukee Brewers to win world series (+4500) - 1 unit
Cleveland Indians to win the AL Pennant (+1200) - 1 unit

Will be busy watching Jen getting evicted from the Big Brother House....but still time to put in these two plays:

Florida (+155) Vs. St. Louis
San Fran (+111) Vs. Chicago

I am playing these two to avoid sweeps...but on a side note I don't get the San Fran line. How can Chicago and Zambrano be sitting at -120 against the ****ty Giants. I will be real intested to see what (if anything) Stiffler will be doing with this game.

Anyway...1 unit each

Good Luck!

[Underdog88]

GL JB... looking at them both

[Jerbeek]

I agree with the SF play but have a hard time going against the Cards since they have burned me so many times lately. Good luck!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by JB

Will be busy watching Jen getting evicted from the Big Brother House....

Originally Posted by JB

I am playing these two to avoid sweeps...but on a side note I don't get the San Fran line. How can Chicago and Zambrano be sitting at -120 against the ****ty Giants. I will be real intested to see what (if anything) Stiffler will be doing with this game.

I guess it's because Z has been hammered badly his last 2 "official" starts against two bad teams (Hou/Cin), and Cain has had 5 quality starts in a row? I agree though...I can't get a handle on this game....was on Chicago at first glance, then moved to a SF play, and then took it off the card altogether. I too will be interested in Stif's take, although I assume he will be on the Giants...

GL JB...good win by your Royals yesterday.....that line was whack!

[JB]

Yea...guess your right on Zambrano...guess I was not aware that he has been so bad his last couple. Amazing...sign the HUGE deal and go in the tank.

[Stifler's Mom]

Look at the pitching stats. Cain's numbers are as good (or better in some cases) than Zambrano's. He just doesn't have the W's to back it because he pitches for a ****ty(er) team.

The public sees Zambrano and gets a hard on (same for Hudson, Penny, Peavy, Young, Beckett, Lackey, Webb, etc) and seemingly doesn't bother looking at anything else.

Much like when I played against Webb last night (taking the +1.5)....my reasoning is basically "How can a team who often has trouble scoring be favored on a -1.5 RL against one who easily has a better offense?" Same goes for when I fade Peavy often on the -1.5 RL. These guys aren't going to pitch shutouts every game, and their teams just don't usually score alot. BUT, no one really ever plays the +1.5, so the books have to juice the crap out of the -1.5, and it makes the +1.5 major value.

I mean, if you look at a line and the first thing that pops into your mind is "Holy ****, Zambrano at -120? What a steal", the way I look at things is that you should probably stay away, or see if you can find a reason to take the other side.

I don't see as to where he's any better than Cain, and the Flubs aren't much better than SF either. They just play in a crap division so their record is somewhat inflated.

Win or lose, SF has major value at +115 IMO. The way I see it, SF should be no less than -105, and maybe about -108.

BTW, yes I'm on SF....

[JB]

2-0 (+2.66)

YTD 161-155 (+20.83)
Pending Plays:
Arizona Diamondbacks to win world series (+4500) - 1 unit
Milwaukee Brewers to win world series (+4500) - 1 unit
Cleveland Indians to win the AL Pennant (+1200) - 1 unit