***UDoggie's Friday Lookahead/Plays***

[Underdog88]

I have a little time before i have to head out, so I'm going to post some thoughts/possible plays for tomorrow. IMO there will be some solid plays on Friday....




Warriors -4

5 units


Hornets/Grizzlies o203

Cavaliers +1

Magic-3.5

Blazers+2.5


3 units each




I'll edit in plays/unit sizes as I make them. Any games that I think could go either way get the boot from me. Already looking I have no interest in Knicks/Kings. Crapshoot game so it's gone. Port/Philly- I think the Blazers win by 5+, & could be a play- if they are dogs. At a pick I'll play them, but I'm not laying road chalk with the Blazers.

Warriors- This is my favorite play Friday. Jumped off the page because from a situational standpoint it's very favorable. You have a Warriors team that can't get it right, & still haven't won a game. They have had a tough schedule (home games to Utah, Dal, Det, road games Utah, LAC). Not an easy start, but they could have at least beat the Cavs @ home. Well now they're off a 2nd collapse, & they are facing the Clips with revenge. The Clippers are off a unimpressive home win vs. the Knicks. The Warriors are going to look to run them out of the gym. To top it off this is the Warriors last home game for 10 days as they go on a 5 game East coast road trip. Honestly I think they could rip through that road trip, maybe 4-1. I'll be looking closer at that as the week approaches, but they have to get the win here before that trip to build confidence. Huge game, & I'm sure Nelson knows it. Last meeting the Clips shot very well, & Baron Davis shot 8-24 from the field/1-9 3 pters. GS doesn't win on the road if Baron doesn't play his ass off. I think he comes out extremely motivated... As for the line, I am thinking the Warriors come out as 4 pt faves. Could be more, but at 5 or less it's likely to be a 5 unit play. I'm going out tonight so I'm going to have to call 5Dimes late & see if I can catch it, because I have a hunch that this line raises. I want the best of this line...


Memphis/Hornets- If you read my posts you know how I feel about the Hornets, so I won't repeat myself. Chandler had himself another great game Wednesday. However, they will likely be overvalued as these 2 teams generally play tight games. I would play the Hornets-4 or less, but I really don't think the books put a line of less than 7 here. I do have an interest in the total here. According to both team's average pts scored, the total should be 199.5. because Memphis allows so many pts (107.4 per game), the line will be higher than that. Despite the likely markup, I think this game sails over. Paul will rip through Memphis' soft D. I think Memphis will look to run at home, & while the Hornets are equipped to do so, Memphis can score. In both home games vs. NO last year, Memphis scored 103 & 108. In 4 meetings last season the totals were 217, 212, 213, & 197. I'm looking to play the over as long as it's not set too high. I'm hoping for 212 or so, but we'll see what we get...

[Underdog88]

Cavs vs. Jazz- IMO another game that favors the home team from a situational standpoint. The Cavs are off an ot loss to Orlando, which was their first game back from the west coast roadie. That's never a good spot to be in, but now they get a days rest before facing Utah. Public opinion for Cleveland is generally low, & for good reason. However, I do think they beat Utah here. Although the Jazz are winners of 5 straight, they haven't been playing solid D, especially on the road. They beat Toronto (who shot horribly) by 4, barely beat the Sonics & lost to the Lakers on the road. Revenge is the cherry on top, as Utah won by 2 @ home. I don't think that sort of game is forgotten about if you're the cavs- come all the way back into a game just to get beat on a last secong layup. Should be a shorter line because it's Utah, hoping for-5 or less.

[TheBeholdah]

udogg, we are on the same page with the warriors, i'm actually taking tonight off in anticipation of that warrior line im going to jump on the warriors as soon as line is released, i think thats dead on that they will be a 4 point fave. think they win by double digits, if they lose ill jump right back on them the next game, i was kicking myself for not taking them vs detroit and now it feels like i get a second chance.

[TheBeholdah]

wow didnt notice you said u might go 5 units strong here, i'm def going to put 3 units on it now (which is like my equivalent of 5 units) lets freakin cash that shizznit, also, why even bother making other plays like on the cavs, looks like a solid spot but why let an average team like that cut into the warriors potential profit, 5 units warriors and call it a day , however u know what you're doing so do ur thing

[cavorca12]

Udogg, my book just posted the NBA Overnight lines.

GS -3.5

NO/Mem 203

Cle +1

[TheGoods420]

The Cavs are an average team? Funny how everyone forgets who came out of the East last year. I don't get it.

[Daws1089]

gl underdog. Too many people read into last year. THIS YEAR IS NOT LAST YEAR lol.

[TheBeholdah]

the cavs to me are like the lakers of the east, bryant-james, both of them could use a scottie pippin. however i did shortchange the cavs a bit my calling them average but this not last year.

wow gs-3.5 it is, cant wait till they post it at my site, cavorca what book do you use?

[TheBeholdah]

[QUOTE

wow gs-3.5 it is, cant wait till they post it at my site, cavorca what book do you use?[/QUOTE]

nevermind just got posted at my site, gs-4

[cavorca12]

Sorry about the hijack Udogg.....

Just checked, and it's up to -4 at mine too. I just happened to be checking the Bulls' line for tonight, saw they were about to post the overnight lines, sat there refreshing until they came up, and grabbed it literally the second they posted.

Also, that's the only line that has moved thus far. Boston, Orlando, ect. haven't budged. Some lines even posted juiced -115 and haven't moved, but GS is bumped up already.

[TheGoods420]

Lebron has a very capable scorer on his team. More touches for Drew Gooden, less for Pavolic and Hughes.

For some reason Lebron/Mike Brown doesn't want Drew to score too many points. I wish Lebron would quit with the bull**** and start looking to pass more to Gooden because the offense would be a lot better if he is getting more shots.

[recovering77]

thanks for posting so early underdog. I wanted to get some opinions. I have to put in my wagers before work tomorrow, and I don't get out til 7 or so, so the games willl already have started.

I think it's a day of firsts tomorrow. Boston's first non cover, and GS first win. GS seems to be too popular a pick though, scary.

Early leans:

Minn +2.5
Miami +11
GS -4

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by TheGoods420

Lebron has a very capable scorer on his team. More touches for Drew Gooden, less for Pavolic and Hughes.

For some reason Lebron/Mike Brown doesn't want Drew to score too many points. I wish Lebron would quit with the bull**** and start looking to pass more to Gooden because the offense would be a lot better if he is getting more shots.

LoL DrewGooden, is that you again?

[akatdrake]

GL Udog - love the writeup on the Warriors! With ya on that for a few units!

[Frankdatank420]

GL Underdog