***UDoggie's Monday Spider Tatts***

[Underdog88]

NBA 60-50-4 +11.6 units



WTF happened yesterday? Toronto/GS on pace the whole game to sail over, then the 4th quarter collapse. I was set to play the Magic+over, then I switch to just the under & get spanked. Serves me right for not taking the gift line. Momma said there'd be days like these...


Sonics/Grizzlies o218

3 units



Grizzlies-2 1stq

Hornets-115 1stq

Trail Blazers+5.5+100


2 units each





Blazers+200
Grizzlies-5.5
Nets team u90

.5 to win 4.75





Seattle/Memphis- Memphis has been playing well the past 4 games, though it hasn't translated into wins. They beat the Rockets by 6, then lost by 3 @ Mil, lost by 2 in ot vs. NO, & last game they lost by 3 @ Dallas. After losing 3 straight by 3 or less, I would imagine there would be some motivation for them to get the home win. On the other side we have the Sonics, who are on their 5th road game. They are 2-2 on the trip, beating the Hawks & Heat & losing to the Magic & Bobcats. Although this could be considered a revenge game (Seattle lost at home to Memphis 105-98), I think Memphis wins tonight. That being said, I have a problem laying pts with a team that doesn't play very much defense. Their 2 wins were by 6 & 7 pts, & I could see the same for this one. While I may still play them, I'm more interested in the total. I was hoping for a line closer to 211, but I still think it's over or no play. The pace of game will be fast, & little defense will be played. It all comes down to how well these two teams shoot. Their last meeting totaled 203 pts, but if you look a little closer, that could have easily been 220. Despite horrible shooting by Memphis, these 2 totaled 51 1stq, 55 2ndq, & 62 in the 3rd. That's 168 after the 3rd, so it was on pace before the 4thq slowdown. Memphis shot 37% from the field, & the Sonics were 3-12 from 3 pt land. I highly doubt Memphis will shoot that badly today- they shot 46% vs. Dallas, 50.5% vs. NO, 47.6% vs. Mil, & 50% vs. Houston. IMO we'll need 44% for the total to go over. With Darko out, Navarro & Lowry will be seeing more minutes, which should also result in a faster pace. IMO Stoudamire may not be starting by the end of the year. Both Navarro & Lowry have been playing well. Navarro especially- he played a solid game vs. Dallas, & led Mem with 28 pts vs. the Hornets, including 8-9 3pt shooting. The guy's a sniper, & I would expect him to get plenty of open looks today. As far as the Sonics keeping pace, they really haven't played many running teams this season. @ Denver they totaled 223. They played the Suns, but on a b2b & shot poorly. Last meeting at Memphis last year totaled 260 pts in a Grizz ot win. Last game @ Seattle totaled 226, & another was 213.....

[Underdog88]

Added 2 1st quarter plays. I haven't lost one yet, been picking my spots carefully. Like I said before I like Memphis to win, & think they start off very strong tonight. The Sonics have led at the end of the first quarter just 2x this season... @ the Heat & Hawks. IMO Memphis puts up 30+ pts & lead at the end of the first.

The Hornets 1stq play has been money in the bank this season, especially at home. They are 4-0 1st q at home (including over the Spurs), & 8-3 for the season. The Magic are 5-6 ats 1stq, & are B2B coming off a very big win @ home vs. the Celtics. I'm very tempted to play the Hornets-1 game as well, but Paul's status has me worried. Sure, they can beat the Bucks without him, but this is a tough one. Chandler will have his hands full in the paint, & West/Lewis IMO is a wash. Peja/Peterson will need to have big games for them to win... still I see them jumping out to an early lead at home.

[SRN1985]

GL


On the over & NO.....

[TheBeholdah]

gl udogg, u've been doing alot of 1st quarter plays lately aye? gl with that over

[FlyersFan]

Chalkdog- GL!...nothing like a spider tatts monday to get the week rolling......

i'm 5-2 +7.6Units with this stuff/tails/my variation of a tail/my stupid plays...lol and i think i shall toss 2 of those on the old stingers 1Q -115 with you.....looks solid...

[akatdrake]

anyone use sportsbook? i'm having a tough time finding first quarter lines? either that or they dont ever come out till an hour before the game starts... i always forget :P

[Underdog88]

Thanks SRN, Beholdah

Beholdah- As long as I keep hitting them, why stop? IMO 1stq lines can have good value if you're selective. Especially when there is a 5pt-6pt fave, as the fave is just -2. I play them mostly when I suspect a team is in a bad spot (ie. Magic off a huge home win/Mem losing a bunch of close ones) & I suspect a quick start for a team.

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

Chalkdog- GL!...nothing like a spider tatts monday to get the week rolling......

i'm 5-2 +7.6Units with this stuff/tails/my variation of a tail/my stupid plays...lol and i think i shall toss 2 of those on the old stingers 1Q -115 with you.....looks solid...

Sounds good, but I think the Memphis 1stq play is better, really only because it looks as if Paul won't play. IMO it could affect the Hornets, but I think more down the stretch in this one. Obviously I still like the Hornets play, & I'm playing it fully expecting CP3 to miss the game...

[TheGoods420]

Good stuff Udogg. Im not even going to post today, only thing I could come up with was the over 218. Im going to tail you on those 1st quarter plays, gl to us. I like the Memphis one better too, but took them both.

[TheGoods420]

Completely agree about not wanting to cover 6 on a team that is one of the worst in the league defensively.

[TheGoods420]

I can't take the Blazers after they blew the 25 point lead when I had +3 against the Sixers and then lost by 4 when they were winning the entire game except for the last minute in the 4th quarter. Something very strange about that team on that road. I am 0-3 on betting against Portland in Portland and 0-1 on betting on them. Even last year I could never get on the right side of the Portland games. I always thought they sucked and I would bet against them on their home games with a much better team and I would still lose. Gl bro.

[Underdog88]

Blazers +5.5- I know the Blazers are 0-6 on the road, but let's look a bit deeper. First 4 road games- Spurs, Hornets, Rockets, Nuggets (on b2b). Expected. Close loss to Philly followed by a b2b loss @ Washington. What has Charlotte done to deserve a -5.5 line? Well they are 4-2 at home, but the 2 losses were vs. the only teams they faced who has a winning record. Charlotte's home wins- Bucks (won by 3), Pacers, Heat & Sonics. These 4 teams have a combined 12-27 record!

I suspect the line is a bit high mainly because of how big the Bobcats won over the Sonics. The Sonics were in a very bad spot there, on a b2b & off an emotinal ot win. The line reflected it as Charlotte was favored by 8.5 I believe. Seattle was winning at the half, but only mustered 35 2ndh points. They shot 31% from the field, so of course they lost! Aldridge should be able to score here, & I would argue that Blake, Roy & Jack make up the better backcourt. I think the Blazers have a much better than 2 to 1 chance to win this game, so I'm also considering a play on the moneyline...

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Sounds good, but I think the Memphis 1stq play is better, really only because it looks as if Paul won't play. IMO it could affect the Hornets, but I think more down the stretch in this one. Obviously I still like the Hornets play, & I'm playing it fully expecting CP3 to miss the game...

....will play 'em both...

[TheGoods420]

I hope you win man. But after seeing their 25 point lead get wiped out because they were being outplayed by the 76ers bench I can't take it. I think the Cats are pretty tough at home , even the Cavs last year had a lot of trouble with them and only won 2/4 of the matchups. The trio of Felton, Richardson, and Wallace scare me too much if the Blazers couldn't even beat Phillys 2nd unit. We'll see, gl tonight bro I am out.

[TheGoods420]

1-1 that works for me I only lost $17 since I got the -105 juice on the grizzlies. Thats a shame the Hornets didn't put up a better effort at home.

[FlyersFan]

wow....glad i added MEM as a play.........Hornets were.....

1-1 -.2Units....still 7-3 +7.4Units......+ is good.....we'll get 'em next time Udog....