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Thanks SRN.... I'm going to have writeups for every play today, looks to be a big card for me. Tons of revenge games & big lines out there. Lots of thoughts....
Mem/Houston over- The Rockets are coming off b2b road losses, but have revenge here, as they lost Nov 13 @ Mem 105-99. Memphis is off a su loss as a 9 pt fave to the Blazers. This is a game that I would expect the Rockets to win, but at 9.5 I think the line is inflated. They have only won 4 times this season by DD, & have looked less than stellar overall. Memphis is 4-0 ats last 4 vs. memphis (largely due to overinflated lines), & are 5-1-1 ats last 7 as dogs. Lean Memphis, but I'm more confident about the over. The last meeting totaled 204, despite Houston shooting 4-19 3pters, & Memphis shooting 1-11 3pts. That's a combined 5 of 30. I don't expect a repeat of that, but do expect a quick pace & plenty of open looks from 3 pt land. memphis allows 105.5 ppg average, & a fg % of over 47%. 5 of their 8 road games have gone over this number. Over has to be a play for me as I see both teams being able to get over the century mark
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Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends... |
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Dallas- I was all set to play the Spurs, mostly because of the revenge angle & the fact that they are rested & at home. I was set to play it even without Duncan, but with Manu likely out, I have to jump ship. IMO the linesmakers are telling you something when an undefeated team @ home is rested, has revenge & is dogged. It's far from an easy play, as IMO the Spurs are the best team in the league by a pretty wide margin, when they're healthy. Dallas beat them @ home by 13 pts, & who were the top 2 scorers for SA? That's right, Duncan & Ginobli. They scored 49 of the Spurs 92 points! Too much to ignore there, without Ginobli driving & creating, the Spurs will have to rely on Parker a whole lot more. I think this will result in the mavs collapsing in on Parker & the Spurs having to settle for jumpers. Devin Harris is listed as questionable, but according to him, he will play. Terry should be able to keep Finley busy, & the Spurs simply do not have an answer for Dirk without Duncan. I think the Mavs are going to start hittiing their stride after a rocky start.
Hornets- Man it's another tough play, especially the way Detroit has been playing. They have won 4 in a row, & not one of them was remotely close. This team is an example on how to stay on top, even when your players are getting older. Maxiell is coming into his own, & is a damn tough inside guy who is great at positioning himself for rebounds. early favorite for 6th man award if you ask me. Then they manage to get Afflalo & Stuckey? Jesus. So yeah, tough to go against a hot team, but this is their 4th game in 5 days. The Hornets are also not Clev, NJ, Mil or the Hawks. They are off an ot win vs. Dallas, & have had 3 days to rest up. To me this game is huge for the Hornets, as they are 4-4 @ home & should be up for this one. This would be a huge confidence boost to beat 2 elite teams in a row, & I think that with catching Detroit in a bad situation, they should be able to pull out the home win. Lean to the over, as I see the Hornets looking to run a bit & tire Detroit, but no play for now.
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Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends... |
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well I just had about a half hour of writeups ****in erase on me. Pissed off right now & have to run out. I'll try to summarize in a bit....
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Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends... |
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That ******* sucks. The only thing I was worried about on the Houston over was that its easier for running teams to establish their style of play being at home. But even with that being said, they can't possibly shoot worse from 3 point land and I think both teams will play offensively.
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Damn... I'm going to work a bit early. Basically the Bobcats have to be favored because of the Bulls horrible road record, but are much worse than the Bulls right now. Okeafor has an advantage in the paint, but the Bulls IMo have the edge everywhere else & IMo they win. The Warriors are off a tough loss & the Bucks are on a b2b where they needed to overcome a big defecit to beat the Clippers. IMO it gets very ugly quick. Hate the high chalk so I teased them with the Celtics, who should beat the ever-lovin **** out of a distracted Philly team. Play on the Nuggets to jump ahead early, as they will definitely remember the beating the Lakers put on them a couple days ago. I think it's another home cover there... chalky day for the most part. Here's the rest of my plays- team totals that I have been doing pretty well on lately
Philly team u85-105 Suns team u107.5 Nuggets team o114-105 Lakers/Nuggets o111.5 1sth Clippers team u96.5 1 unit each Mavs-150 Nuggets-380 Celtics-370 LaL/Nuggs o11.5 1sth 1 to win 4.1 units Likely won't be back until halftime of the lakers game, so GL everyone
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Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends... |
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Just so you know the rules of "testers" I looked it up on BettingTerms.edu:
"A tester counts toward your overall record only if it wins. All testers are graded at +110 odds instead of the normal -110 of a 'normal wager.' Testers, however, do not lose you money. Also, a tester line can move at the will of the person posting it, even after the contest has already began. Synonyms: Free play. Not real. QuickNick." |
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gl UDOGG....like the Hornets and Mavs as well tonight....prolly gonna tail you on that Memphis over as well, this team has been a good over team all year
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