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Old 12-14-2007, 08:12 AM
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USFMD82 USFMD82 is offline
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Posts: 236
Default Is this a feasible betting system for NBA you think?

I keep reading about how its very unusual for a NBA team to win ATS for 4-5 games or more (hoping you guys that have been following spreads and performances longer then me coudl pipe in on that).. So i was thinking if it would seem like a logical idea to just steak out the teams with ATS performance that is getting up there in numbers on ATS wins then just start betting against them (regardless the spread) and then double up? Obviously you have to have a large bank for this to work, but as they say, the team has to lose ATS sooner or later? This idea is kind of reminiscent of a simple roulette strategy, where you let the wheel kep going until you have seen one of the 2-1 odd things not hit for 7 times, then just start hitting that particular one and double up, statistcs will eventually catch up on that one, depending how far your pockets can go. Im quite sure since its common knowledge, this idea has likely been kicked around before, but any thoughts on why this would be a bad system or alternativley why it would be a good system? I notice generally most systems dont seem to work in the end though, just wanted some feedback, either way would not plan to set such a plan in motion at this juncture anyway as I dont have the bankroll ot support it.
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Updated Feb 06 2008 1 unit equals=$25
Try to update every 10 days
Wagers posted are either a tail of various sources/or gut shots, if made, analysis given
Posted Plays
NHL:15-11-2 ML:7-5 PL:1-1 O/U:7-5-2
NBA:11-17Spread:9-10O/U:2-7
NCAAB:6-4Spread: 6-3 O/U:0-1
Straight Wager:
NCAAFB:5-1
NFL:3-2-1
NHL:0-1-1
NBA:14-19-1
NCAAB:4-6-0

Parlays /Teasers Overall 5-11
By Sport (Includes O/U bets)
NHL:11-11
(Basketball Typically parlay -250+ lines)
NBA:11-2
NCAAB:13-3

Last edited by USFMD82 : 12-14-2007 at 08:18 AM.
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Old 12-14-2007, 04:35 PM
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Q-Unit Q-Unit is offline
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Default

seems like a good idear.

but take it from someone who's experienced it firsthand, it doesnt work! LOL

maybe it does, but you'd have to have some luck and a large bankroll as well as good stats to back it up.

earlier last month I did do a chase sys and it happened to require fading orlando on the road on road trips of 6 or more games.

lemme tell ya they went 12-0 ATS on the road! no shit!

their SU record is 11-2 or something, but ATS its perfect, at least on those long road trips, they may have lost ATS once or twice but not on a 6 game road trip i know that for sure cuz my bankroll could prove it. (or lack of lol)

so now im trying to slowly dig out of that hole the old fashion way
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NCAAF YTD:
59-64-4 (+17.04 units) sides
12-12-0 (-1.68 units) totals
12-28-0 (-6.04 units) MLs

NFL YTD:
27-25-1 (-0.80 units) sides
8-8-1 (-1.28 units) totals
8-11-0 (+7.30 units) MLs

NBA YTD:
0-0-0 (+0.00 units) sides
0-0-0 (+0.00 units) totals
0-1-0 (-1.00 unit) MLs

"Schooly D is fat cake yo."
-Big Pimpin-
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Old 12-14-2007, 06:22 PM
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Biff_Tannen Biff_Tannen is offline
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Betting for/against streaks is very inconsistent from what I've found... sound idea but i think there would have to be alot more refinement done to eliminate games where they are road underdogs. etc. to make the outcomes more predictable (ie - 60%+)

This also means that you might only bet one game a week to wait for all the stars to align and you'd have to lay some serious cash to get anywhere doing that.

I think best bet is to snag 2-3 sides a day and maybe 2-3 totals a day and try and hit 2 of 3 70% of the time. Otherwise go with 1 pick a day and aim for 60% at the end of the season.

I rely on news feeds and buzz info from vegas, etc. to make most of my picks. I'm on the phones talking to partners all day. Sure I read a little into the matchup, also check injuries, there's alot of info on the net... but every 45-50% capper has access to it.
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Old 12-14-2007, 06:32 PM
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NittanyLions94 NittanyLions94 is offline
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If you have the balls, the chase systems can make you money. But you really need to lower your unit amounts and have a huge bankroll. I could never justify laying $1,500 to profit 10 bucks but that's just me.
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