***UDoggie's Thursday NBA/Discussion***

[Underdog88]

NBA 323-316-4 +39.18 units



Haven't played anything just yet, thought we could get a little discussion going.... some preliminary thoughts...



Piston/Spurs- Pistons fresh off a 16 pt beatdown @ Dallas, where the Mavs finally looked like the team we saw tear through the regular season last year. That makes 2 straight losses for the Stones, who got handed a 7 pt loss by the Celtics at home. Detroit looked a bit discombobulated defensively, & that won't fly against the Spurs. The Spurs are at home with 2 days rest, & off a tough ot loss @ GS. I really can't think of a reason why you would fade the Spurs at home. As good a team as the Pistons are, it's not like they've been lighting up the West on the road....

@ Sea w 107-103

@ Port L 94-102

@ GS w 111-104

@ LaL L 91-103

@ Sac L 95-105

@ NO w 91-76

@ Mem w 113-103

@ Hous L 77-80

@ Dal L 86-102


So the Piston are 5-4 su on the road vs. the West, with just 2 wins vs teams with winning records. They only beat the Sonics by 4 pts. I don't think they will beat the Spurs today. I do think it could be a very closely played game though... I'm currently leaning towards laying the juice on the moneyline. It's extremely rare for me to do this, but I'm looking at it like this. A team that's 17-2 at home vs. a team that's 2-4 vs. West coast teams with a winning record. -155 doesn't look so bad for a 17-2 home team. 3.5 could very well come into play....Last season Detroit lost @ SA 90-89, & @ home 90-81. Close games. This would also fit into the totals system- these two combined average 197.5, & the line is set at 180.5, which would normally be an automatic play for me. However, I'm put off by the fact that just 1 of the last 9 home games for the Spurs have fell under that number. Also 6 of the Piston's last 8 have gone over that number, so I'm a bit hesitant to jump on the under....


Phx/Utah- Lots of factors here- the Suns team has the flu, Hill is out for a couple weeks along with Nash missing the trip. AK47 looks to be out for Utah. The line has jumped from an opener of -3 to -6. The total has dropped from 224.5 down to 219.5. While I certainly agree with the drop in the total due to Nash's absence, I think the line has gotten a bit out of hand. The Suns are still a 13-6 road team, & 5 of their 10 losses have been by 6 pts or less. Utah is definitely a very good home team, but I won't lay 6 with them vs a team that IMO is better than them... Regarding the total, I'm a bit perplexed as to why the total was set so high in the first place. Some resons why the under may be a play for me....

Last meeting @ Phx totaled 201 with Nash in. Utah shot 44%/Phx 46%, which to me shows that it wasn't just a poor shooting night.

The Suns have been on an over run, with the last 3 totals going over (Pacers, Nuggets, Hornets), but all 3 were played at home. The Suns last 6 games on the road?

@ Sac 209 pts

@ LAC 196 pts

@ LAL 237 pts

@ Dal 213 pts

@ SaS 195 pts

@ NoH 199 pts


So the total has gone over 213 1x in the last 6 road games, vs the Lakers. In this game, the Lakers shot 53% & were 27-32 from the ft line. The Suns shot 47% & 41% from 3 pt land. Pretty high % all around I would say.


Lastly, I looked at Utah's totals at home. Something jumped out at me... how many times did they get over this number at home?

1 time! They combined with GS for 243 pts, as Utah shot 63%, GS shot 50%, & both teams combined were 25-47 from behind the 3 pt line. I believe that's what you would call an anomaly....




Haven't looked into the other game yet, but initial lean goes to......yup you guessed it Daws- the Grizz.

[FlyersFan]

Udog- GL!.....like that PHX Under, especially off OT last night......tired legs come the 2H....

[Underdog88]

Thanks FF! Yeah I forgot to add that in there, Suns definitely expended a ton of energy last night. However, I must point out that it never seems to affect them- they have had their share of high totals off b2bs. Nonetheless I locked a couple in....



Spurs-150

Suns/Jazz u219.5-105

Suns+7-103


3 units each



Grizzlies+150

Grizzlies/Kings u203-105

Suns+248

Grizzlies team u99.5-105

1 unit each

[Stifler's Mom]

Detroit looked bad last night. Breaking in some new players too. I don't like their chances at SA, especially on the 2nd of B2B....trying to avoid 3 straight losses or not.

[Underdog88]

Suns line now +6.5-102/ +235! I'm waiting, hopefully I can get a 7, but this one's a play regardless... I forgot to mention that Utah did beat the Suns in 3 of 4 last season. Pretty impressive, but look at the scores...

@Phx-----> Utah w 108-104

@Utah-----> Utah w 120-117 ot

@Phx------> Utah w 108-105

@Utah-----> Phx won 126-98


Still want to lay 6.5 with the Jazz? Also note the totals, 25 pts were scored in ot, so 3 of the 4 were around the 213 range, pretty much what I expect tonight.





Memphis/Sacramento- Some random stuff on this game.

Sacramento's last 7 home games & team totals....

Win vs Orlando...... 104 pts scored

Lost vs. Suns..........102 pts scored

Lost vs. Philly..........80 pts scored

Lost vs. Boston........69 pts scored

Lost vs. Denver.......105 pts scored

Win vs. Bucks..........96 pts scored

Lost vs. Clippers.......87 pts scored


Kings team total is set at 103, though they've only gone over that number 2x in their last 7 home games. I like the team under.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

Detroit looked bad last night. Breaking in some new players too. I don't like their chances at SA, especially on the 2nd of B2B....trying to avoid 3 straight losses or not.

Yeah, while I don't think Stuckey/Hermann/Hayes will get as many minutes tonight, I agree.



Suns now +7 +248, I can't see it getting any higher, but who knows...



Adding Memphis to plays. Memphis last 5 road games & totals...


@Boston lost by 4, 194 total pts

@Pacers- won 90-74 (164 total pts)

@Spurs lost 111-87 (198)

@Detroit lost 94-67 (161 pts)

@Magic won 123-119


Makes me like the under, as just 1 on their last 5 have gone over the number. Also, they're 3-2 ats last 5 road games. Yes they were blown out 2x, but those were horrible spots situationally for them. The loss to the Pistons was a letdown spot for Memphis, after they beat the Spurs su in SA. The loss to SA was a big time revenge game for the Spurs. Gimme Memphis as road dogs to a team that's 2-5 last 7 @ home.... I'm hoping this game goes under, because I want to play tomorrow's over vs. GS, & while that one will be high as hell regardless, maybe it'll be a touch lower if they play under today....

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Thanks FF! Yeah I forgot to add that in there, Suns definitely expended a ton of energy last night. However, I must point out that it never seems to affect them- they have had their share of high totals off b2bs. Nonetheless I locked a couple in....



Spurs-150

Suns/Jazz u219.5-105

3 units each

chalkdoggiedog- i'm on board on those 2 tonight......-155 and Under219......guess i waited too long......one of my books has -160 and Under217 1/2.....grab 'em while you can i guess....GL!....

[wsox08]

GL tonight UDog..

[Underdog88]

Thanks FF- I have been chalkdoggin a bit lately, especially that Raptors play yesterday. Laying 8.5 is not something I often do, but when the situation warrants it... Hopefully the Spurs play like the Spurs should...I'm pissed I didn't jump on the total when I first saw it at 223, but I hadn't looked into it enough.

Thanks Wsox- GL to you as well

[gsad]

why is the Utah under getting so much action?

[Underdog88]

Detroit starts the game on fire

[Underdog88]

Spurs-2.5 3rdq

Det/Sa u89.5 2ndh

1.5 units each

[Biff_Tannen]

Spurs definitely aren't going down w/o a fight in this one.

[Underdog88]

Yeah, In retrospect I should have played the 3rdq under big, I knew they would come out strong defensively. Small parlay


Grizzlies+125 1sth
Suns+260

.5 to win 3.55 units

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

I don't think they will beat the Spurs today. I do think it could be a very closely played game though... I'm currently leaning towards laying the juice on the moneyline. It's extremely rare for me to do this, but I'm looking at it like this. A team that's 17-2 at home vs. a team that's 2-4 vs. West coast teams with a winning record. -155 doesn't look so bad for a 17-2 home team. 3.5 could very well come into play....Last season Detroit lost @ SA 90-89, & @ home 90-81. Close games. This would also fit into the totals system- these two combined average 197.5, & the line is set at 180.5, which would normally be an automatic play for me.

Real smart. Instead of just laying off a game I suspect will be close to begin with, I play the ML. Then leave off the under which 9x out of 10 I would be on. Someone smack me the next time I think of playing a fave on the ML