Cavorca NBA Wed

[cavorca12]

NBA 1/16:

Golden State at Indiana Over 221 ... 1 Unit



GL!



Not really a ton of time for reasoning. Prev game not indicative of typical game for these teams, though I know the trade last year makes it a bit more important for them. Ind had 4 off rebs and 77 attempts in the 1st game, and GS shot 41% from the field and 24% from 3. IMO those are all more likely to go up than not. Also, both teams situationally with their schedule in spots where they typically allow more points than usual. Both teams also play at very fast pace (Ind #2 and GS #3) which means lots of shots. Also both avg very short possessions.

[cavorca12]

Adding:

Chicago +3.5 ... 1 Unit

[cavorca12]

Adding:

Seattle at New Orleans Under 198 ... 0.75 Unit

[cavorca12]

2-1, +1.07

I went the 1st preseason game in NO and saw them play Indy, and just in watching it seemed Indy shot a ton of jumpers. I remebered it clearly but never really checked it out further until this game. Pretty interesting stuff that I wish I had had time to pass on before the game, but IMO it could help the rest of the way when capping Indy.

GS/Ind started slow before scoring 195 points the L3 quarters. With the 2nd and 3rd fastest paces in the NBA, Indy then GS, I figured there would be plenty shot attempts, just a matter of shooting decent %'s. Foster's rebounding helped Indy a lot IMO, and his 4 offensive rebounds matched their total the 1st meeting. Indy has the highest % of jump shots to total shots in the NBA and have a low eFG% compared to teams near their jump shot ratio with 73% of their shots being jumpers, so rebounding is important for them. Indy's 55 reb to GS's 35 was big. Indy was also on 2 days rest. They avg lower %'s after 2+ rest, not shocking knowing their shot % stat, but they've still avg nearly the same total points on 2+ as 0 or 1 rest by jacking more 3's and getting to the line more. Thought being at H vs a GS D that drops off on 0 rest would help Indy, and they shot at good %'s while also playing to their 2+ rest trend by shooting 30 3's and 38 FT's. GS D probably a large reason for their %'s. As for GS, their scoring usually not a huge worry, but their recent games that didn't produce big totals were a result of playing vs slower pace and/or good D teams and not GS struggling. Figured there could be some value due to how these stats and situations combined pretty well but def some luck in there as well. Anyway, wish I had the time earlier today to do this writing, but maybe it will be helpful going forward. GL everyone.