***UDoggie's Tuesday NBA/Discussion***

[Underdog88]

NBA 457-444-7 +75.74 units



After a rough start to the season, the winners have been coming on strong lately. Set a goal to be +40 units by the break, & it looks like I'll hit that. I'll be around for a little bit, thought maybe we could get some discussion going. First look at today's card & it looks very tough- home dogs that are tough to back, gonna delve into some totals. I'll be back in a sec with some thoughts- feel free to post yours

[Underdog88]

One total that jumps out to me is the Bulls/Hornets under 193. Bulls first game back from a road trip that saw them lose badly to the Wolves & win as 12 pt dogs @ GS. Ultimately they went 2-4 on the trip that ended in a 10 pt loss @ Utah. The Hornets are on the front end of a b2b road game, but IMO should be favored as well as they're playing. Tough to play an under on a Hornets game recently, as 5 of their last 6 games have totaled 210 or more, but take a look at the Bulls totals at home...


181 pts vs. Min

165 vs. Phx

167 vs. Char

203 vs. Pacers

178 vs. Det

230 vs. GS

205 vs. Knicks

187 vs. Sac

Indiana & GS are over teams, & the Knicks shot 50% to push the total up. I think this could be a slower paced game resulting in an under. No set opinion on the side- normally I would look to fade the home team in their first game back off a road trip, but since the Bulls did poorly, I can't put too much stock in that. However, I'm not sure I can fade the Hornets....

[Underdog88]

Denver/Heat- Denver laying points on the road. No thanks. Heat are less than 10 pt dogs. No thanks. +6.5 would mean they have to be within 2-4 pts come fouling time. Gun to my head I would side with the Heat, but I'm saving my fade of the Nuggets for tomorrow. Tomorrow the Nuggets will be facing the Magic (with revenge) on a road b2b. To top it off, the line will likely be shorter than it should be as the Magic have lost 2 in a row at home. IMO it's a 10+ pt win for Orlando tomorrow, & depending on the line, it'll be a biggie. I am considering the over for this game though. Denver won @ home in their last meeting 115-89, but led by as many as 33 points. The Heat shot 37%/Den 48%. I think if both teams can shoot 44% or higher today, it goes over the total....

[Underdog88]

Damn ran out of time....here's what I got for today


Nuggets/Heat o209.5-108

Hornets/Bulls u192-107

Wolves/Nets u188-105

2 units each



Celtics team u104

Hawks+185

1 unit each

[cavorca12]

Only looked over the 3 games that were out last night, but I really liked the Den/Mia over.

Last several Den away lean under, but IMO it's not truthful. Den topped 100 L3 away, and last game vs Cle should have been over a decent amount. Either Cle was absolutely horrible on O or Den played decent D, but I'll blame Cle w/ the LBJ meltdown. Anyway, Mia had a good offensive efficiency in 1st game w/ new guys vs LAL and scored well until the game began to grind in 4Q, but Mia didn't do great on D. Den should be able to get their points and their pace creates plenty possessions for Mia. IMO Mia likely tops 100 if they play similar offensively as vs LAL and aren't in a bad spot to possibly cover playing at home, vs Den team off Cle blowout, all-star break in view, but I tend to agree that it's hard backing them at that line.

GL!

[dananderson32]

i like the look of Memphis getting the points at home



looks like i picked the right night

[Daws1089]

dan, that is a deadly combo. grizz +pts at home is ofer in the last 9.

[dananderson32]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

dan, that is a deadly combo. grizz +pts at home is ofer in the last 9.

always a good day to break a streak than isn't it

[gsad]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

NBA 457-444-7 +75.74 units



After a rough start to the season, the winners have been coming on strong lately. Set a goal to be +40 units by the break, & it looks like I'll hit that. I'll be around for a little bit, thought maybe we could get some discussion going. First look at today's card & it looks very tough- home dogs that are tough to back, gonna delve into some totals. I'll be back in a sec with some thoughts- feel free to post yours

your total units is 75 and you want to be at 40 by the break? I hope thats a typo!

[Whaleydog]

K.I.R. UDog

[flmmkrz]

Originally Posted by gsad

your total units is 75 and you want to be at 40 by the break? I hope thats a typo!

I don't think it's a typo, he was saying he had hoped to be up 40 units at the half and it looks like short of a bad losing streak he'll surpass that. He's not saying he's hoping to drop 30 units asap.

Gl tonight udog

[gsad]

Originally Posted by flmmkrz

I don't think it's a typo, he was saying he had hoped to be up 40 units at the half and it looks like short of a bad losing streak he'll surpass that. He's not saying he's hoping to drop 30 units asap.

Gl tonight udog

I know he's not hoping to lose I thought the 75 or the 40 was wrong I misunderstood his statement.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by flmmkrz

I don't think it's a typo, he was saying he had hoped to be up 40 units at the half and it looks like short of a bad losing streak he'll surpass that

That's what I meant


Thanks for the well-wishes, hope we all cash today



Nuggets-2 3rdq

1 unit


I really want the Nuggets to win just to get a more favorable line for tomorrow

[Underdog88]

Grizzlies team o52-105 2ndh

Kings team u53-105 2ndh

Kings/Grizzlies o52 3rdq

1 unit each

[SRN1985]

GL Udogg...I hope your right about the magic tomorrow as I will be at the game and just dont know what to think anymore...so inconsistent lately.


Anyways tomorrow's card is HUGE...so there will be lots of other options.

My guess if denver wins tonite it will be Magic -4.5 or so