***UDoggie's Monday NBA/Discussion***

[Underdog88]

NBA 520-500-10 +108.68 units



Ok off a horrible 3-7 night. Should have saw it coming, but anytime there's a night that all faves cover, I'm pretty much guaranteed a losing day. Tailers beware, I'm 7-11 last 2 days- not worried about it as I can't let a losing day get to me too badly, but anyone who reads my posts know I'm streaky. Hoping for more peaks than valleys, I the best way for me is to dig into these games & get some feedback.

I haven't even looked at the lines for today- first I'm going to look at the totals, then situation/matchups. My goal todayis to give thoughts on every game on tap, then narrow it down to the ones I'm most confident in.... I'll go right down the line, back in a bit.



Pacers +2 1sth

Spurs team o99.5-105

Pistons +1.5+100

2 units each




4.5 pt teaser

Hornets-6.5
Clippers+14

2 to win 2 units




Mavs team o102.5-105

Pistons team o103.5-105

1 unit each




6pt pleaser

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Why are the Raptors only laying 2.5 against the horrible Pacers? Toronto a decent road team, and have won both games against Indy this year. I doubt they lose b2b road game against NYN & IND. I guess it's a low line b/c of the day off for Indy, and the b2b travel for Toronto?

I also saw someone make the Pacers an "easy money" GOY for tonight...lol...

[SRN1985]

I kinda leaning Spurs -12 right now as I see the Hawks getting outscored every quarter and the way faves finished out last nite...it could be another 101 - 82 type game. I just dont see a close game throughout.

Also feel the Bulls are decent tonite...Dallas off b2b, bulls hanging with houston through solid 3 quarters and travel really is not a big deal coming from Houston.

couple trends:

- Mavericks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.
- Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Bulls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.



Thoughts?

[Underdog88]

Some general thoughts- Faves are 11-4 ats in the last 2 days. What does it mean? No F'n clue....

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Why are the Raptors only laying 2.5 against the horrible Pacers? Toronto a decent road team, and have won both games against Indy this year. I doubt they lose b2b road game against NYN & IND. I guess it's a low line b/c of the day off for Indy, and the b2b travel for Toronto?

I also saw someone make the Pacers an "easy money" GOY for tonight...lol...

First I think the fact that it's a b2b for Toronto is the main reason. Toronto is a .500 road team, fine for an east team. How anyone can call this an easy money GOY is beyond me, as the Pacers are without Tinsley/ Oneal yet again. The Pacers are just 6-11 without Tinsley, they definietly miss his ability to drive to the hoop. Now they have to rely solely on jumpers, so IMO they have to shoot at a higher % to win- did I mention they are also pretty bad defensively, allowing 45% & 105 ppg? Tough to back a team allowing 105 ppg, but in looking at this game I stumbled across something that has me questioning the Raptors....

Raptors results on b2b games off a win


w@ Min------------> lost vs Spurs

w vs Atl------------> lost @ Philly

w@ SA-------------> lost @ Houston

w@ LAC-----------> lost @ Portland

w@ ATL--------------> won vs Dallas

w vs Clev---------> lost @ Wash

w@ Philly------------> won @ Bulls


2-5 su off a win on the back end of a b2b. Also note that both times they were off a home win, they lost on the road.


The Pacers have been losin (3-7 last 10), but I can't really say they are playing badly. More like they've been outmatched lately, & playing some tough competition. Losses to the Pistons 2x, Celtics, Spurs, Magic, Rockets, Cavs- 3 of them were 6 pts or less. I would say they were in 4 of those games. I would have set this line at Tor-4/ ou 206 as the Raptors have also been scoring- I think Indy needs to put up 110 to win, so gun to my head Pacers +pts/ over.....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Great Stuff, UD...thanks

[Underdog88]

Detroit/ Denver- this game interests me, a 19-10 road team vs a 22-6 home team. Detroit off a blowout win @ the Suns, which although i had a lean to the Pistons, would not have expected such a lopsided affair. After a shaky start out of the gates for the Pistons in the 2ndh half, they seem to have gotten back on track. They have recorded b2b wins of 27+ points! Now they're on 0 rest & facing the Nuggets. They are 2-2 su this season on the back end of b2b road games after winning the first. The Nuggets are off b2b road losses @Chi/ @Mil. I faded them ML both games, but today they are back home. I think Camby needs to play a good defensive game inside for the Nuggets to win. Also, they get Kleiza back tonight, who is their 3rd leading scorer. I wouldn't even consider them without him playing... I had the total set at 205.5, so it looks like its pretty on. I would have to say, for me it would be over or no play, as the Nuggets will no doubt look to run, & the Stones have a ton of depth at the guard position pg- Billups, Stuckey...sg Rip, Afflalo & now Juan Dixon. I can't see this one staying under 200 pts, but it could be close. one thing that stuck out to me was the Nuggets results this season coming home off a road loss. The Nuggets are 6-2 @ home following a road loss. This includes wins over the Magic, Celtics & Utah. The Nuggets have only had 1 situation where they lost b2b road games & returned back home. After b2b losses @Char & Atl, the Nuggets returned home to face the Jazz. They responded with a 120-109 win. Leaning on the Nuggets ML, not sure if I'll be on that or the team total...

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by SRN1985

Also feel the Bulls are decent tonite...Dallas off b2b, bulls hanging with houston through solid 3 quarters and travel really is not a big deal coming from Houston.

couple trends:

- Mavericks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.
- Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Bulls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.

A couple thoughts on this one. both teams are on a b2b, with the Mavs off a ridiculously stupid 16 pt win which they tied every quarter but the last. God I hate the Wolves right now. They are in what is generally a bad spot, with this being their first game home off a 4 game road trip. They were 2-2 off the trip, & had they been 3-1 I would look to fade them here. Basically I don't think the Bulls have what it takes to beat them su tonight. Dallas is still 23-3 at home, so for me the Bulls ML is out of the question. One big factor could be that today is Kidd's homecoming game. After a rough 1st game (which is expected), Kidd has compiled 32 assists in his last 2 games. He is doing what he has been brought in to do- set up Dirk/Terry/Howard, run pt & play solid defense. The defensive aspect is what IMO is overlooked most. Last 2 games Kidd has played great D, & has held his opposing pg in check. Foye/Telfair combined 64 minutes & just 12 pts. Conley/Lowry combined 61 minutes & 23 pts. Defense.

I do think it's a big line, but in the end it all comes down to whether or not Gordon plays his ass off. Tyrus has been looking pretty good, Grey had 6 rebs in 11 minutes last night. My problem with the Bulls tonight is that they have allowed 110+ pts in their last 3 games played. I don't see them winning if they allow over 95. tough call here, IMO. I may play the Mavs 1stq/ or 1sth, as I do think Kidd's homecoming could result in an emotional start to the game.... Regarding the total, I had it set around 198, as the Bulls have been on an over run.

[TheGoods420]

I'm on the Raptors -3, I'm sure you boys will be fading me like usual. I know it looks like a bookie setup, but even the Cavs shorthanded beat the Pacers in a situation just like this. Cleveland has covered 3 times ATS against this team, I'm hoping the Raptors can do the same.

[Vic Mackey]

Goods,

Is it possible for you to discuss a game without mentioning the Cavs in some way??

The fact that they have covered vs Indiana this year means nothing in this matchup... Indiana is playing TORONTO tonight.

That being said, I like the Pacers in this double revenge situation.

Also like the Nuggets tonight in a good letdown spot for Detroits. Hopefull Denver will play D with pride tonight after giving up 250 points in their last 2 games to offensive juggernauts Milw + Chi...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Vic Mackey

Goods,

Is it possible for you to discuss a game without mentioning the Cavs in some way??

LMAO...I was thinking the same thing.

[Daws1089]

soon, he will only be mentioning the bulls in his analysis.

[Underdog88]

Stif, I think the Clips are live! Am I crazy?


What the hell? The Clips are catching 9 pts. Boston is playing their 4th in 5, & this is their 5th & final game of their road trip. I'm sure they can't wait to get back home. The Celtics are 2-2 su on the second game of a b2b roadie. While I think the C's aren't a team to overlook anyone, but they do have the Cavs @ home wednesday, & they have revenge, so there is a small lookahead factor. Even smaller revnge angle as the Clips lost @ boston 111-100, coming back to within 3 to start the 4th only to lose the 4th by 8 pts. IMO this line is an overreaction to the Celtics 10 pt win @ Port, Kaman being out, & the bad loss to the Lakers. The Clippers are still 6-4 in their last 10 home games, with 2 of the losses being by 7 or less pts. Last night the Celtics shot 58% from the field, 14-21 from the 3 pt line & won by 10. This line is set too high, to me it doesn't matter what team is facing the Celtics tonight- they are in a bad spot. In the last 15 games played by the Celtics, they would have covered this line 3 times.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Stif, I think the Clips are live! Am I crazy?

Is Kaman out?
Tough job to control Garnett w/o the balding blonde bomber inside, no?

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Is Kaman out?
Tough job to control Garnett w/o the balding blonde bomber inside, no?

he's listed as doubtful JML, & I would be very surprised to see him in. At the same time KG really hasn't been that impressive since returning. 84 mintues played, 33 pts 20 rebounds. Scalabrine will also miss the game, which IMO has impactedthe C's road trip. Powe was playing pretty well to start, but has since gone cold. I think the C's bench has been **** lately, so to me +9 vs a team with a bench playing like **** looks good even without Kaman inside. Maggette, Tim Thomas will no doubt need to play great. Looks like Cassell with play as well.

[TheGoods420]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

soon, he will only be mentioning the bulls in his analysis.

YouTube - Drew Gooden Posterizes Yao Ming