***UDoggie's Tuesday NBA***

[Underdog88]

NBA 550-544-10 +96.27 units


Small profit last night, thanks to the half point loss on the Mavs... always try to get the best line possible! One so far....



Lakers / Kings o220.5-105

5 units




Raptors+9.5-105

2 units




Kings team o107.5

Kings+5.5-105

Kings +215

1.5 units each





Lakers/Kings over- Kings on their second home since returning from their grueling road trip, & off an impressive come from behind victory/cover vs. the Heat. Now they face off vs. Kobe for the first time this season. Arco may not be what it used to be, but the Kings still play tough there. The Lakers were on a ridiculous ats/su run, going 13-1 ats from the end of January up to Feb 24. However, I do think the lines have caught up to them (think Patriots), & I think laying 5.5 pts vs the Kings at home is just not a good proposition. The Kings have won su as dogs 8 times this season! As you can tell, I also have a strong lean to the Kings, but here's what has me on the over so strong.

Kings last 3 pt totals @ home

120 pts vs Miami

119 pts vs. Atl

117 pts vs. Utah


This season they have scored points vs. tougher Western teams-

112 in a win vs. NO

122 in a win vs. Dallas

112 in a win vs. SA

117 in a win vs. Utah 2x


IMO the Kings play much better offensively when facing a top tier team @ home. As I said before, I think the Lakers may be overvalued (I would have set it at -3 or so), but they are continuing to score in bunches. Here are their last 5 pt totals in road games, in addition I added the average pts allowed for each team they faced.


111 @ Portland (lost)- 96pts avg. allowed

111 @ Seattle (won) - 104 avg.

113 @ LAC (won- yeah I know, not really a road game)- 99.1 avg

130 @ Phx (won)- 104.9 avg.

117 @ Minny (won)- 100.9 avg


Keep in mind Portland, LAC, & Minny really don't like to run all that much. Basically what sticks out to me is that the Lakers have been scoring well over the pts a team allows on an average- 14+ pts in 4 of the cases! The Kings are allowing 103.4 ppg...

Although they haven't faced off this season, here are the results of last season's contests...

@ Sac- Laker won 132-128 ot (234 regulation)

@ LaL- Kings won 116-108

@ LaL- Lakers won 126-103

@ Sac- Lakers won 117-106


I expect a game much like the first one, tons of scoring. Still looking into a couple other games... GLTA

[Underdog88]

ended up adding the Kings ats/ml/team over. Keeping them smaller plays at 1.5 units, as I'm fading a very hot team. However, I feel the Kings are the play, but that the over is the best play on the whole card. Other matchup notes...


Kobe has been damn near unstoppable lately, & really I don't think there is a defender in the league right now that can contain him. He has averaged over 30 ppg facing Artest, who is regarded as one of the better defenders in the league. @ pg Udrih has jumped right in to full duties, & has scored 23+ pts in his last 3 games. He should create some scoring opportunities, & Martin should be able to get some open looks. IMMO Odom has a big advantage @ pf, & would expect him to try & get to the line quite a bit vs. Mikki Moore. Gasol/ Miller should be a good matchup, I think both players will get their points. Artest IMO has the advantage offensively vs. Walton, & he has averaged 22+ pts in 4 of his last 5 games. He was just fined by coach Theus after questioning the teams desire to make the playoffs, so I'm hoping that sparks a little extra motivation from this Kings team.

[Underdog88]

Off to work, some quick thoughts...


Tor/Orl- IMO the line is inflated because of Bosh's absence, but Dooling & Nelson are both questionable! IMo the total is set right about where it should be, no real lean there. Small play on the Raptors + the pts......


GS/ATL- Warriors less than stellar on the road, Hawks beat them in their house 117-110. I would think smart money would be on the Hawks here/ public would be on the Warriors, but my gut feeling is the Warriors win. These are the games they must win if they want a chance to sneak into the playoffs...Total looks a bit high to me, lean under

Sea/Det- bad scheduling spot for the Pistons, look ahead situation, but I still don't want my $ riding on Seattle away. IMO Detroit can pretty much name their margin of victory here. Looks like an under play, as Detroit will likely look to milk the clock/ get the game over relatively easily.....

Char/Min- No Brewer for Wolves so no interest in this one. Crapfest, line set higher than I thought due to recent string of overs. No real lean at all here except to stay away...

Mem/Chi- kryptonite I say! I think Memphis is live here- completely laughable the Bulls are favored by DD to anyone! However, I lose no matter what side I play in Memphis games, so I'm staying the hell away. Memphis +pts/ small ML play looks good though.

NJ/SA- SA wins, but by how much? I don't care enough to guess....

Phx/Port- Suns are playing like crap, lean to the Blazers @ home as dogs. Still may play it.

[wsox08]

GL tonight UDog.. good write ups.

[Stifler's Mom]

I believe the Warriors have become one of the most over valued teams in the NBA

They actually opened at -1.5 and are now +2.5, despite 80% of the public on them ATS and 95% on them ML.

Sharps might be wrong, but they're definitely on Atlanta tonight....unless the possible absence of Chris Webber moved the line 4 points, LMFAO

I agree totally on the Queens too. I will play them blindly every time they're catching points at Arco, provided the whole team isn't injured or something. That's easily a profitable situation.

Will also be on Portland (Phoenix is playing like dung, and the Jailblazers are extremely tough at home...like you said), and the Craptors too. Orlando is right up there (IMO) as well in teams who are always overvalued....right along with Golden St.

Gonna give Memphis a whirl too. They suck ass, and I never cover when I play them, but the Bulls a DD fave? Yeesh....

Glad to see we pretty much agree tonight

[Underdog88]

looking like it will be close to the total...


Kings team o52 2ndh

Suns/ Blazers u101 2ndh

1 unit each

[Underdog88]

Kings are imploding....

[Underdog88]

3.5 minutes since a point was scored for the Kings

[gsad]

Lakers / Kings o220.5-105

5 units


thank you tatoo Garcia

[Underdog88]

That shouldn't have even been close.... so pissed at the Queens for that collapse, Lakers go on a 16-0 run, & the Kings can't even cover the team over.



2-5 -1.98 units

[gsad]

UD take a lucky day that could have been real bad! Get em back tomorrow

[philthy_rich]

2-5 -.35? More like -1.80'ish.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by philthy_rich

2-5 -.35? More like -1.80'ish.

fixed it for ya.... btw your sig is ridiculous

[philthy_rich]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

fixed it for ya.... btw your sig is ridiculous

Thanks.

[philthy_rich]

How long have you been giving your self extra units?

This may help. Amazon.co.uk: Everyday Math for Dummies (For Dummies (Lifestyles Paperback)): Charles Seiter: Books

It's only a fraction of the price you wager everyday, well worth it!