~~ BIFF'S 1 PLAY - MAR. 11th ~~

[Biff_Tannen]

Back to the NBA tonight and for some reason I really like a bad team tonight. Memphis has failed to cover the last 5 games as a double digit underdog. On the season as a double digit underdog they are 6-9-1 ATS. Now I don't like to get to caught up in trends, but if those 5 double digit losses didn't shake bettors, I don't know what will. Now is the time to hop on them I think.

Another trend, over the past few years, the Suns are 0-12-2 ATS after playing San Antonio (reg. season only). The Suns are also 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a double digit home favorite. On the season they are 5-7-1 as a double digit home favorite and 6-10-1 ATS as a double digit favorite overall. They also won by 14 at Memphis on 2/26. I like to go with this trend seeing as the Suns will always get money at home no matter if they've failed to cover their last three as a double digit favorite.

I am well aware Memphis stinks, but look at their scoring by quarters. On the road the 4th quarter is not only their highest scoring quarter, but it is also their best defensive quarter. This team doesn't give up when down big like they usually are and takes advantage of bench players coming in late. Additionally, Mike Miller back for the Grizzlies. That 14 point line is looking very sweet right now.

I'm also looking at a couple totals tonight. Mainly the UNDER in the Portland game. I'll be back to post my POD.



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March Starting Bankroll = $5,000

March Current Bankroll = $5,625

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March Past Results (6-4)

MARCH 1st = GONZAGA BULLDOGS (BB) -6 = WIN +$250
MARCH 2nd = NEW JERSEY NETS +5½ = LOSS -$550
MARCH 3rd = LOYOLA MARYMOUNT/SAN DIEGO - UNDER 130½ = LOSS -$275
MARCH 4th = SUNS/TRAILBLAZERS - UNDER 208½ = WIN +$500
MARCH 5th = OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (1H) -2½ = LOSS -$275
MARCH 6th = OREGON DUCKS (BB) -5 = WIN +$250
MARCH 7th = DENVER NUGGETS -1 = WIN +$500
MARCH 8th = PEPPERDINE/SAN DIEGO - UNDER 137 = WIN +$250
MARCH 9th = ST. MARY'S GAELS (BB) -4½ = LOSS -$275
MARCH 10th = GONZAGA/SAN DIEGO - OVER 127 = WIN +$250

[Quelude4u]

GL BIFF - I'm all over LAL - didn't see much to make me feel good about the other games - maybe Utah but at a heckle/jeckle Chicago team could prove to be too risky..

GL whatever u decide.. Also, wasn't sure about the over/under last night in your SD/Gonz pick but glad you were on the right side... I was looking at SD but decided to go with the BIFF 1-play...

[EdwardHaney]

Not to get too picky here, but when you say heckle/jeckle do you actually mean jeckle/hyde?


Post Of The Day!!

[Biff_Tannen]

For me, I can see how it is easy for people to think..."ok so alls the Suns have to do is what they did AT MEMPHIS two weeks ago, but now at HOME." I think for some bettors that is enough information to make a bet. But the Suns as a 10+ point favorite are averaging giving up 104 ppg. (Remember this number.) These are highly inferior teams getting 100+ ON AVERAGE against them. By taking these points your are demanding 118+ points basically from the Suns tonight. By the way the O/U on their points tonight is 118. However, if you look at their games where they went 0-12-2 ATS after playing the Spurs during the regular season, their points scored is no where near 118. I calculated it out, they are averaging scoring... you guessed it 104 points in the last 14 games after playing the Spurs. This number only stems back to the 2003-2004 season, so it's pretty much all Steve Nash era. There isn't much out there today, and this information is good enough for me to ride the post-Spurs trend. Why? Cause the Suns are a team that rides heavily on it's starters and is a very fast-paced team. Going up against a defensive force like San Antonio takes a lot out of a team offensively. My logic might start getting the best of me here, but I even like this reverse line movement. Suns gotta be a teaser favorite tonight. Line was at -15½ now was -13½ at some offshore books. Me I'm getting it somewhere in between. For a little insurance I'm putting some on the Under as well. Good Luck.


MARCH 11th = MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +14½


*RISKING $550 to win $500.

[ALMOST1]

Biff,

What do you think about Mem -2 2H +107?

[Quelude4u]

damn - what were we thinking??????

who would have thunk it - Suns shooting 65% and Memphis shooting 30%.. (more or less)

Memphis playing no defense and Suns look like a team against a really bad team... lol

[Biff_Tannen]

Almost... sorry I didn't respond I was actually at the lanes for my league tonight. Normally I only chase my bet in the 2nd half it I'm get a 15+ point buffer. I definitely would have taken the -2 this game, but like I said I wasn't around.

Quelude... despite Memphis being a wash tonight, there's never any consistency in taking the "championship" teams all the time. They will come to bite you in the end. Tonight was a night where the Suns played above and beyond what was expected of them and Memphis did the exact opposite. It happens. That's why I only bet 10% of my bankroll. If I go 0-1 I'm still here tomorrow ready to get it back.

I've been wrong before, and I'll be wrong again. Tonight the past meant nothing, this happens. I got wrapped up in trends and logic... and look it's tomorrow! Best thing to do is learn a lesson and then move on.


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March Starting Bankroll = $5,000

March Current Bankroll = $5,075

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March Past Results (6-5)

MARCH 1st = GONZAGA BULLDOGS (BB) -6 = WIN +$250
MARCH 2nd = NEW JERSEY NETS +5½ = LOSS -$550
MARCH 3rd = LOYOLA MARYMOUNT/SAN DIEGO - UNDER 130½ = LOSS -$275
MARCH 4th = SUNS/TRAILBLAZERS - UNDER 208½ = WIN +$500
MARCH 5th = OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (1H) -2½ = LOSS -$275
MARCH 6th = OREGON DUCKS (BB) -5 = WIN +$250
MARCH 7th = DENVER NUGGETS -1 = WIN +$500
MARCH 8th = PEPPERDINE/SAN DIEGO - UNDER 137 = WIN +$250
MARCH 9th = ST. MARY'S GAELS (BB) -4½ = LOSS -$275
MARCH 10th = GONZAGA/SAN DIEGO - OVER 127 = WIN +$250
MARCH 11th = MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +14½ = LOSS -$550

[Quelude4u]

I hear ya..

I will tell you one thing - ride the Rockets wave... They are on a mad cover spree...

Hou (-6) Playing @ ATL - taking Hou until they prove me otherwise...

GL tomorrow...

[ALMOST1]

No problem Biff. We'll get'em tomorrow.