***UDoggie's Tuesday NBA***

[Underdog88]

NBA 602-600-11 +103.43 units


Nuggets/Pistons u212.5-105

Lakers/Mavericks u208.5-101

Celtics/Rockets u181.5-107

Warriors/Kings o229-105

Warriors team o58 1sth


3 units each







Round robin parlays

Pistons-5.5/Rockets-4.5

Pistons-5.5/Mavericks-5.5

Mavericks-5.5/Rockets-4.5

1 to win 2.6 units each





Also a Pistons, Bucks, Mavs, Rockets, Warriors ml parlay

.5 to win 2.66 units










Kicking it off with some thoughts, very exciting matchups for the next couple days.....



Detroit/Denver- Detroit off home wins vs NO & SA, after a Philly loss at home. They are on the front end of a b2b, traveling to Cleveland tomorrow. Denver is also on the front end of a b2b, with the Sixers on deck tomorrow. It is also the start of a 5 game East coast roadtrip. They are off a 52 pt home win vs the Sonics (LoL). This is a revenge game for the Nuggets, as they lost @ home 98-93. They only shot 36%, & all of Detroit's 5 starters got into DD. If you check my threads, you probably know that I love to fade the Nuggets on the road. I love to map out their road trips & find good spots to fade them. Philly could be a big play for me tomorrow, & I expect them to lose this game as well. However, I'm not sure that I'm comfortable laying 6+, so it may be connected to something else in a 4.5 pt teaser. Under looks very good to me, as the line is set a couple pts higher than it should be. Has a bunch to do with the Nuggets last total, but this is the Pistons we are talking about! Flip does not want to get into a shootout with the Nuggets, & his focal point will in all likelihood be ball movement & defense. I guess my main concern is that during this time of the season, Flip will look to get his role players much more time on the court, in an effort to not only protect his stars from fatigue, but also to get the bench crunch time experience. I would not be surprised at all to see Detroit up by 7 all game long, then see Stuckey, Maxiell & Jarvis Hayes close out the game. Lean Pistons & large lean to the under.



Dallas/Lakers- Should be a great one here. The Lakers are off 2 straight road losses (Houston & NO), & have lost 3 of 4. No Gasol instanly kicks a leg out of their offense, but on any given night Kobe is capable of dropping 50+. Revenge spot for the Mavs here, as they lost 108-104 in ot @ Staples. I grabbed the points there as LA was laying too much, but I don't think the dog will be getting any plays from me here. Dallas has won 5 straight games, & I know what you're gonna think. Those were vs Miami, Indy, Char, NY & NJ! Of course they won! Well, the thing that impresses me is the way in which they won. The Mavericks have not trailed at any point of their 5 game win streak. Look out houston lol. But seriously, it shows me that they aren't just sleepwalking through games. Though their last meeting topped out at 212, just 186 of those points came in regulation. Both teams shot under 40%. The meeting previous was a 112-105 home win for Dallas. Average combined total for these two would be 208, but I would have set this at 200, so I see value in the under here.


GS/Sac- Kings with double revenge & at home as dogs? Well, here's one anti-pub home dog that I don't think I can back. I just think the Warriors match up very well vs the Kings. The Kings do not play defense, & pg Udrih tend to push the ball & imo favors uptempo games, which in turn favors the Warriors. The Warriors are 2 days rested & on the front end of a b2b. They beat Memphis by 3 at home last game played. Two meeting between these two teams

@Sac- GS won 103-96 Kings shot 34%/GS shot 41.6 %

@GS- Warriors won 105-102

In the second meeting, the Warriors shot 41.8% & the Kings shot 45%. that's a touch below average, but they both shot a combined 10-47 from the 3 point line! KMart shot a dismal 3-16 for 9 points. The Kings are allowing opponents to shoot 46.6% fg & 81 attempts per game. They are also allowing 38% 3 pt shooting. That is the average allowed to the average offense, which the Warriors certainly aren't. I expect the Warriors to get 100 fg attempts tonight. Warrior's last 6 road games...


@Phx- lost 123-115

@Orl- won 104-95

@Mia- won 134-99

@Char- lost 118-109

@Atl- won 135-118

@Utah- lost 119-109


Tonights total is set at 229- 3 of the Warriors last 6 road games have gone over this total, & 2 that didn't were 227/228. The Warriors are in a situation where every single game is a must win if they want to see the post season. That being said, they are tough to trust on the road. lean to the Warriors & strong lean to the over...



Back with some more thoughts...

[SRN1985]

Likin GS and Pistons Under, but it just jumped 2 points to 210...so dont know exactly...denver could shoot lights out again and just not play defense (road game) allowing both teams to climb over century mark quite easy.




Good Luck today

[Underdog88]

Saw this quote from Jarvis Hayes concerning Flip...."Coach told us we better come out with our running shoes on. We expect a track meet that's for sure."


Could very well go over the total, but I'm still sticking with the under...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Underdog88

Dallas has won 5 straight games, & I know what you're gonna think. Those were vs Miami, Indy, Char, NY & NJ! Of course they won!

That's exactly what I was thinking! lol. I think Dallas is a bit inflated here because of this "Kidd" turnaround, so all of a sudden they're laying a huge 6 points to a top team like LA? The 5 wins were against maybe the WORST 5 teams in the NBA...and I don't care if they were never down in the games....b/c they never should have been, and 1/2 the teams in the NBA wouldn't have been either. I think LA finds a way to keep this close...they've lost 2 in a row against superior competition, and play Utah next...this is the winnable game of the trip, as Dallas is a 2nd tier team on a phantom winning streak IMO.

I was looking at the Warriors too (surprise). Is Artest out?

GL!

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

That's exactly what I was thinking! lol. I think Dallas is a bit inflated here because of this "Kidd" turnaround, so all of a sudden they're laying a huge 6 points to a top team like LA?


I think LA finds a way to keep this close...they've lost 2 in a row against superior competition, and play Utah next...this is the winnable game of the trip, as Dallas is a 2nd tier team on a phantom winning streak IMO.

I was looking at the Warriors too (surprise). Is Artest out?

I don't think this line is inflated at all, Dallas is a superior home team, & I still have a hard time believing they are a 2nd tier team. They are in the toughest division in the NBA, yet have the second best home record at 29-4! That's less home losses than Boston, SA, Detroit, Lakers, Hornets, Houston.

They have beat the Rockets, Spurs, Hornets, Pistons & the Lakers all by 9 or more pts at home this season, so I think the line is where it needs to be. They are also tied for the most home wins with Boston & Utah. This is the most crucial part of the Mavericks schedule, as they are facing the Lakers Celtics & Spurs all at home. I think now is the time when we find out what this team will do...



Artest is a go... haven't heard anything otherwise. John Salmons is questionable, but that doesn't have much of an effect IMO....

[Underdog88]

Finalizing the card now, off to wrk in a bit, but the last of my thoughts...



Celtics/Rockets- Wow. b2b for the C's, & off a big win @ SAS to sweep the season series with them. Honestly, I haven't been this excited for the NBA playoffs in a long time, because though the East doesn't have the number of quality teams the Werst does, they do have 2 powerhouses in Det & Bos, that can clearly hang with the top notch west teams. If forced to pick the 2 teams in the finals, I would go with the Pistons vs the Lakers, but that's assuming LA can get healthy in time. IMO the Spurs will still be in it, but something is wrong right now, & I am a bit leery. Any way back to this matchup... the Rockets have revenge as they lost 97-93 @ Boston. The C's shot a scorching 53%, while the Rockets shot 42%. Not often you get a shorter line on such a hot team rested, @ home, & with revenge no less. Problem is you have to fade the C's, who seem to be able to overcome bad scheduling/situations. Does the streak stop here? I don't think so... Alston is playing at a very high level right now- I expect a lower scoring battle here with the Rockets coming out on top. The total says it all, & it has to be a system play. Yesterday the C's just got over the total, huge come from behind win. If they fall behind early again, I don't see the same outcome. IMO fading the Rockets @ NO tomorrow looks like a lean for me, but I'll have to see how this play out....Rockets have a tough schedule in front of them including b2b games vs GS/Phx.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

That home record is actually misleading IMO. (if a 29-4 record can be! lol) Cause that stat almost got me off the play at first glance. But looking further...

• Dallas' last 10 home wins: IND, CHA, NYK, NJN, SAC, CHI, POR, MEM, MIL. Every one a non-playoff bottom feeder type team.

• They've played exactly one good team at home in the past 2 months, and that was a loss against HOU.

• Of their 29 home wins...I see only 11 against current playoff-bound teams. Dallas home games ATS against playoff teams? 8-5-2. Truth is...they've beat up on alot of bad teams at home, and have really played nobody at home in 7 weeks (except Hou...a loss).

I agree though...this is a true test the next while, when they play some top teams...we'll see what they're really made of!


Gl with your plays!!

[Underdog88]

Thanks JML! Same to you. Plays at the top, off to work..... lean to the Blazers, but not sure if it'll be a play. GLTA